The Alternative Green Energy Thread

JKenH

silverwhistle said:

silverwhistle said:

The problem is that the capital markets want some security when it comes to lend the massive front-loaded amounts that wind needs, without the capital allowances and subsidies that fossil fuel extraction gets.

It should also be pointed out that inflation isn't just material costs, but after the disastrous 6 weeks of Truss and Kwarteng the cost of capital is an extra few screws in the coffin.

The government were told that the limit they had imposed would result in no bids, well before closure. I'd love to know their reasoning for not increasing, now that what they were told has been confirmed. Incompetence, bribery, not listening (my personal favourite), they're a Russian sleeper cell (that would be this Chardonnay..), sheer indolence - which judging by attendances at Westminster is another favourite, busy securing another job in anticipation of leaving Westminster? I shan't start a poll, but I'd really like to know why the current administration is so utterly useless?

While you make a valid point about the cost of capital impacting investment in renewable generation, I doubt that you could really think that Truss/Kwarteng possessed the political or economic clout to unilaterally drive up interest rates to their present level across the pond and in Europe. The Fed and European Central Bank might think they have a little more influence. Still, I am sure many others will enjoy your observations and theories about the basis on which government policy is formulated.



https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57764601

QrizB

QrizB said:

silverwhistle said:

It should also be pointed out, in reply to complaints of cheaper wind not being reflected in retail prices, that the gas tail at the margins has been wagging the dog and it is disingenuous to blame cheap wind for that.

Although, the allowance in the Ofgem cap calculation for CFD payments was negative for a period. CFD-supported generation was visibly making energy prices lower.

(I think it's back to being positive at the moment, as wholesale electricity prices have fallen below the generation-weighted average CFD price.)

I can share links later if anyone is interested.

From the Annex 2 spreadsheet here, CFD costs in default tariff cap, Eastern region, single-rate metering, for every cap period to date:

• Jan-Mar 2019: £13.06
• Apr-Sep 2019: £19.77
• Oct 19-Mar 20: £20.41
• Apr-Sep 2020: £29.21
• Oct 20-Mar 21: £32.19
• Apr-Sep 2021: £37.47
• Oct 21-Mar 22: £23.79
• Apr-Sep 2022: £00.30
• Oct-Dec 2022: -£24.36
• Jan-Mar 2023: -£42.72
• Apr-Jun 2023: -£57.92
• Jul-Sep 2023: £10.34
• Oct-Dec 2023: £16.44
  

So, the CFD costs were near-zero in mid-2020, negative through the last winter, and are now roughly where they were in spring 2019.

(Why Eastern region? Simply because it's at the top of the table and easy to read. Other regions vary, but the pattern is the same.)

markin

How much per KWH if all the grid connections, HVDC, and Balancing costs were added on, Even the smart meter roll out that's also mainly to help support it. 

Balancing costs are rocketing up, I forget the numbers but they are big, Build a new HPC every 2-3 years big without looking it up, its to late at night to start googling. 

thevilla

markin said:

How much per KWH if all the grid connections, HVDC, and Balancing costs were added on, Even the smart meter roll out that's also mainly to help support it. 

Balancing costs are rocketing up, I forget the numbers but they are big, Build a new HPC every 2-3 years big without looking it up, its to late at night to start googling. 

Does anyone  know now the cost of HPC?  I'm guessing it's still going up.

Balancing costs are a factor of electricity price which is apparently set by gas price.  Sure renewables increase the need but let's not cherry pick our figures eh?

Oh, and the cost of not moving to renewables?  Certainly not zero.

Edit.

HPC cost £32.7bn

Balancing for 2022 £4bn.

No wonder you were too tired to check out your claimed figures

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station

https://www.energylivenews.com/2023/02/16/national-grid-forks-out-4bn-to-keep-the-light-on/

michaels

As I mentioned on the other thread, no doubt part of the cost increase for wind is its own success potentially creating something of a bubble for wind turbines as many countries go 'all in wind'.  In which case not contracting huge amount f capacity at the current prices may be a win assuming turbine prices (and long term finance costs) fall back in the not to distant future.

markin

thevilla said:

markin said:

How much per KWH if all the grid connections, HVDC, and Balancing costs were added on, Even the smart meter roll out that's also mainly to help support it. 

Balancing costs are rocketing up, I forget the numbers but they are big, Build a new HPC every 2-3 years big without looking it up, its to late at night to start googling. 

Does anyone  know now the cost of HPC?  I'm guessing it's still going up.

Balancing costs are a factor of electricity price which is apparently set by gas price.  Sure renewables increase the need but let's not cherry pick our figures eh?

Oh, and the cost of not moving to renewables?  Certainly not zero.

Edit.

HPC cost £32.7bn

Balancing for 2022 £4bn.

No wonder you were too tired to check out your claimed figures

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station

https://www.energylivenews.com/2023/02/16/national-grid-forks-out-4bn-to-keep-the-light-on/

It seems i was thinking of the Levies included (£9.7bn in 2020), And the plants were meant to be closer to £20B if the Government had funded it and rolled out a fleet.



"Construction of HPC began in December 2018. Unit 1 was originally scheduled to start up by the end of 2025. In January 2021, EDF said the start of electricity generation from unit 1 had been rescheduled to June 2026 adding that delays due to the pandemic would also increase costs by GBP500 million to GBP22-23 billion. In May, EDF announced the start of electricity generation for HPC 1 is now expected in June 2027 with project completion costs estimated at GBP25-26 billion."
https://www.neimagazine.com/news/newsedf-secures-further-funding-hinkley-point-c-10414222


"As can be seen, the cost of the Levies component has soared over the years from £0.5bn in 2010 to £9.7bn in 2020. Levies stabilised in 2021, then fell back in 2022 as CfD costs fell. However, total costs didn’t fall as much because Grid Balancing costs continued to rise. The OBR expects total Levies to fall to £3.7bn in FY2022-23 but rise again to £9bn in 2025-26. It should be expected that FiT costs will rise in line with inflation. Grid balancing costs are likely to continue to rise sharply."

"It should be noted that the £114/MWh hidden costs of renewables is very much higher than the £44-57/MWh levelised cost of wind and solar suggested by BEIS in Figure 1. In fact, these costs alone are higher than nuclear and higher than gas if the “carbon costs” are stripped out."

https://davidturver.substack.com/p/exposing-the-hidden-costs-of-renewables

QrizB

markin said:

It seems i was thinking of the Levies included (£9.7bn in 2020)
"As can be seen, the cost of the Levies component has soared over the years from £0.5bn in 2010 to £9.7bn in 2020. Levies stabilised in 2021, then fell back in 2022 as CfD costs fell.

From that same Substack:

Levies are made up of several components documented in the OBR’s Economic and fiscal outlook – supplementary fiscal tables: receipts and other publications. By far the largest component (£6.3bn in fiscal year ended March 2022) is Renewables Obligations (a levy on electricity suppliers who emit CO2). These are forecast by the OBR to rise in line with inflation. The next largest component is Capacity Markets Cost (£0.9bn). Contracts for Difference (CfDs) are the only other significant cost (£0.3bn).

So of his ~£10B in levies, roughly 3% of it is due to CfDs. Most of it is carbon taxes.

markin said:

And the plants were meant to be closer to £20B if the Government had funded it and rolled out a fleet.

That's a political decision, then, that's costing us all ~£20B for Hinkley Point C and another £20B for Sizewell C.

JKenH

Interesting technical article from Kathryn Porter of Watt-Logic on synchronous condensers which is a technology new to me.

Stabilising US power grids using synchronous condensers

The fluctuations and instabilities observed on US power grids in recent years are increasing as conventional generation is replaced with intermittent renewables. Synchronous condensers are a straightforward way of mitigating these effects, and can be delivered through re-purposing retiring thermal generation if the physical layout of the plant is suitable for conversion. Grids with large volumes of inverter-based resources such as the west Texas region are likely to require the addition of synchronous condensers to maintain grid stability if the transition to a de-carbonised grid is to continue without compromising reliability. Where new peaking plant is being installed, including the capability to work as a synchronous condenser will allow these new facilities to deliver the maximum benefit to the grid.

https://watt-logic.com/2023/09/14/synchronous-condensers-in-the-us/

JKenH

I’m with Rishi

We’ve all had a few hours to reflect on the changes and much disappointment has been expressed but largely that is coming from ideologues,sectors who have vested interests and those hoping to make political capital out of the changes. Perhaps, not surprisingly, there was more reaction to the leak of the changes than the announcement itself with various parties hoping it wasn’t too late to get Rishi to change his mind. In fact the BBC (in disbelief that this could actually be happening) suggested that the leak was just the government sounding out the ideal to gauge reaction. Well, good on Rishi, he didn’t flinch.

So what does it all mean in practice?

The ban on ICE vehicles being moved.

This I believe was essential both practically and politically. EVs are coming - they are getting better and cheaper and with bigger batteries (yes, I know that means more CO2 in manufacture and use) will be soon be practical for most of the population. Just because EVs are suitable for 95% of journeys, though, doesn’t make them suitable for 95% of users. There will always be edge cases and forcing a ban only fuels the fire of resistance and legitimises the edge case argument. If there is no ban that % who believe an EV will never work for them have nothing to complain about. What will be the point of the EVs will never work stories in the DM and DT - it’s like complaining that Caterhams are impractical. Fine, if they don’t work for you that’s ok because now you don’t have to buy one. Having a ban take effect in 2030 5 years ahead of Europe alway smacked of the ideologues running the country rather than the pragmatists. In 5 years time EVs will be so common on our roads that they are just another form of propulsion not an impractical invention of the socialist out to rule our lives - we don’t  need a ban, full stop. If EVs are better folk will buy them (new or used). Personally I think the moving of the ban has lifted one of the obstacles to widespread EV adoption - there is no longer a war to be fought; you make the decision on what works best for you and for most people that will be EVs. 

For the industry I can see the objections but should we make people buy cars they don’t want just to suit the manufacturers or should they make cars people want to buy - not the ones they want to sell? (Ford stopped making their best selling car, the Fiesta, because they thought they could force people to buy the more profitable Puma. Tesla are now building cars without indicator stalks - just ask yourself, why that is.)

If you have to pass a law to make someone buy something they don’t want then there is something wrong with the product; that is not a good law and  is never a good political move. Good luck to Labour if they are planning on reversing the shift to 2035. 

The oil boiler ban being moved to align with the gas boiler date

i never understood why new oil boilers were going to be banned in 2026 but new gas boilers could be bought until 2035, so the levelling out there is a good idea. People don’t  have oil boilers because they don’t want mains gas - we have a choice of oil or propane - both more expensive than mains gas. My boiler is 17 years old and going strong. As things were, I was going to be faced with a decision in the next 3 years as to whether to replace it with a new one at £2-3k or keep it until it dies and then get a heat pump - at what cost? Probably for me, with 20 radiators, it would be quite pricey and involve a lot of disruption. I can now defer that decision until heat pump costs come down and efficiency improves. 

Improving rented properties to EPC C standard

A lot of landlords with older houses have already left the market and sold up and others were considering doing so because of the expense of meeting the EPC standard and that has seriously impacted on rents. That’s the law of unintended consequences. I don’t have any rented properties but my son has a number of large student houses (5,6 and 7 bedroom). Anyone familiar with the EPC will know you need a much higher standard of insulation in a large house than a small one as the EPC is based on the cost of heating the property. Because of the floor area I struggled to reach a C for my own house with extra thick wall insulation, 300 m loft insulation, underfloor insulation and modern double glazed windows. The EPC system is not fit for purpose and demanding a C rating in large Victorian houses was an unnecessary burden that has reduced the rental housing stock across the country. 

Only in a politician’s utopian world of the future does interfering in the free market improve outcomes for consumers. 

I don’t for one minute think this is over. It will be a re-run of the post Brexit vote shenanigans with every legal and political attempt made to undo what Rishi has just done - but don’t let anyone kid themselves whatever they are doing will be more for their own interests than the good of the planet. 

EricMears

Progress towards EVs will continue with or without government interference.  As older models reach the secondhand market more buyers will be able to 'join the club' and enjoy refuelling at home at a fraction of the price of petrol/derv.  With or without government encouragement,  new car buyers will similarly move towards EVs and as demand increases manufacturers will make more EVs and fewer ICEVs.  Government could help that trend by reinstating the fuel price accelerator rules that have been consistently flouted since introduction.

'New policy' will have little practical effect apart from the probably intended one of persuading voters that government are trying to help them