Labour = lower rents and house prices

lisyloo

I would have thought most renters can’t or don’t want to buy.
If you are not working or self employed you still won’t be able to get a mortgage even with a discount.
I’m renting for economic mobility reasons and don’t want to commit to buying.

I don’t know what the proportions are but the idea that all renters want to AND can buy is not correct.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

A corbyn government is a long shot But I’ll play along.

If lots of landlords sell then there will be a lack of accommodation available for those that have to rent. In certain parts of the country where people can’t easily move out (say central London) rental prices will rise.
Labour will not be able to provide a lot of rental properties in the short term so those who can’t buy will have a problem.

Someone has to buy the property for the landlord to sell, if not other landlords who will buy? If loads of rental hits the market at the same time it will depress flat/house prices in an already volatile economic/political climate, and more people will house share or stay longer with parents if rents did start to spike up, reducing their rental costs to probably below what they previously paid. Add to this the end of FOM and maybe a deteriorating jobs market then it would be a double whammy for landlords and private owners hoping to sell or see price increases. The "houses disappear when landlords sell up" argument is one of the least convincing of all the Property Bull memes IMO.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

I was speaking of residential owners who live in their properties.
Those who own outright or with high levels of equity won’t be too bothered about paper prices as it’s generally a home for their family long term.
Of course there will be tiny numbers buying or selling, but the majority will be simple living in their homes.

Do you know many landlords?
Those that I know will simply amend their business plans if and when circumstances change.
Most of them have made plenty of money and are pretty happy overall with the success they’ve had.
A labour government remains a low probability (but I’m happy to discuss).
More stagnation is much more likely.

How? What will they do?

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Someone has to buy the property for the landlord to sell, if not other landlords who will buy? If loads of rental hits the market at the same time it will depress flat/house prices in an already volatile economic/political climate, and more people will house share or stay longer with parents if rents did start to spike up, reducing their rental costs to probably below what they previously paid. Add to this the end of FOM and maybe a deteriorating jobs market then it would be a double whammy for landlords and private owners hoping to sell or see price increases. The "houses disappear when landlords sell up" argument is one of the least convincing of all the Property Bull memes IMO.

I didn’t claim the houses would disappear.
Owner occupiers would buy.
They tend to occupy less efficiently e.g. 6 immigrant renters might be replaced by 2 owner occupiers.

I’ve never said houses would disappear.
My point was there would be insufficient housing for the 1/3rd who cannot buy particularly in the short term (as labour couldn’t provide an alternative quickly). I

lisyloo

Crashy_Time wrote: »

How? What will they do?

The landlords I spoke to recently would sell up (if the said laws did come into force and it wasn’t prudent for them to continue).

The ones I know are business people with diversified assets e.g. business, pensions as well as home and rental properties etc. They were not at all emotional about it, they will just deal with it as a business decision and will have made a good profit overall.

No big deal, they’ll change their portfolio to suit.
Why will people be landlords if it’s not worth being a landlord anymore?
I’m suggesting that’s a problem in the current situation where private landlords provide supply. You cannot just get houses out of a cupboard, it takes time to build them.

I am personally not that concerned by a labour win. A tory win or hung parliament are far more likely.

The-Joker

scaredofdebt wrote: »

Meaningless, nobody knows what the policy is.


If it is a discount for long term renters, then landlords will start doing short term lets.


From what I've read it sounds like they will give a discount to tenants if the property needs money spending on it, ie it only affects properties where landlords have let the house become run down to an extent.


But I will wait for the official policy to be announced before commenting with any great amount of certainty.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-right-buy-scheme-houses-landlords-tenants-john-mcdonnell-corbyn-a9088211.html

Everyone is looking for loopholes, there may well be some, but I don’t think it’s as easy as only doing short term lets

And besides who wants the hassle of short term lets and void periods between them, plus greater risk of one of them being a nightmare tenant

The-Joker

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Someone has to buy the property for the landlord to sell, if not other landlords who will buy? If loads of rental hits the market at the same time it will depress flat/house prices in an already volatile economic/political climate, and more people will house share or stay longer with parents if rents did start to spike up, reducing their rental costs to probably below what they previously paid. Add to this the end of FOM and maybe a deteriorating jobs market then it would be a double whammy for landlords and private owners hoping to sell or see price increases. The "houses disappear when landlords sell up" argument is one of the least convincing of all the Property Bull memes IMO.

Add to this we have had the longest eccconomic expansion in history and are long overdue the mother of all recessions

51mm5

When’s this correction coming? It may not happen within your lifetime. How long do you hope and wish, while most people just get on with there lives? Waste of energy, just do what’s right for your circumstances, buy or rent and prepare as best you can for any downturn.

phillw

lisyloo wrote: »

The landlords I spoke to recently would sell up (if the said laws did come into force and it wasn’t prudent for them to continue).

Some landlords are full of bravado. I wouldn't expect them to continue letting out if it wasn't prudent for them to continue. However they are just winding themselves up thinking it won't be prudent because they hate the idea of socialism.

Crashy_Time

lisyloo wrote: »

The landlords I spoke to recently would sell up (if the said laws did come into force and it wasn’t prudent for them to continue).

The ones I know are business people with diversified assets e.g. business, pensions as well as home and rental properties etc. They were not at all emotional about it, they will just deal with it as a business decision and will have made a good profit overall.

No big deal, they’ll change their portfolio to suit.
Why will people be landlords if it’s not worth being a landlord anymore?
I’m suggesting that’s a problem in the current situation where private landlords provide supply. You cannot just get houses out of a cupboard, it takes time to build them.

I am personally not that concerned by a labour win. A tory win or hung parliament are far more likely.

Most BTL are novices IMO, they were sold a dream of free money so that the banks could lend more, and as stated already the housing stock doesn`t change, just who owns it, you don`t need to get anything out of a cupboard.