Housing Crash Coming

The-Joker

Seabee42 wrote: »

There only seems the likelihood of a correction if there is forced selling, how will this occur?

things like that never happened all the last times that there were significant corrections in property

The-Joker

Seabee42 wrote: »

There only seems the likelihood of a correction if there is forced selling, how will this occur?

lisyloo wrote: »

There are no perma prop bulls.
Most of us just know we won’t be able to time a significant correction, so get on with our lives and own property, businesses etc.
I may lose my job at some point (and have done several times) it doesn’t stop me working.
We might be in a car or airline crash, it doesn’t stop people driving or flying.
I might get ill, it doesn’t me living.
I might get food poisoning, it doesn’t stop me eating etc.

Sensible people will get on with it but plan sensibly for foreseen and unforeseen events.

The fundamentals are strong. Many people want to come into our country as shown by people tragically dying to get in. Population is rising, household size is getting smaller, lack of building, stable politically and economically (relatively speaking). There aren’t any significant reasons to think a crash is imminent.

There are perma property bulls and then there are ones who would like to be but admit the truth.

There are many on here that fall into the later

Seabee42

The-Joker wrote: »

things like that never happened all the last times that there were significant corrections in property

You maybe right, but the last property crash in the UK had repossessions which definitely had an effect.


Clearly the current uncertainty is putting off buyers but a crash implies a significant fall.

lisyloo

The-Joker wrote: »

There are perma property bulls and then there are ones who would like to be but admit the truth.

There are many on here that fall into the later

How about discussing the fundamentals rather than what you think about what others think (irrelevant).

What fundamental factors do you expect in the short term to cause a housing crash?
Brexit uncertainty hasn’t so far.

The-Joker

lisyloo wrote: »

How about discussing the fundamentals rather than what you think about what others think (irrelevant).

What fundamental factors do you expect in the short term to cause a housing crash?
Brexit uncertainty hasn’t so far.

There are so many black swan possibilities to name a few.....

The Queen finally dying = chaos many wanting huge changes

The fallout from brexit uncertainty = can’t kick the can anymore because it has hit the wall

Banks stop lending due to credit crisis from 2008 being postponed over a decade by adding more debt to the problem o too much debt

The derivative time bomb exploded = too big to fail banks failing

The debt time bomb exploded = the people won’t stand for another banker bailout, also means financial collapse

Faith lost in rapidly expanding fiat currency supplies around the world = hyperinflation and run out of currency and into real money, GOLD AND SILVER BULLION.

lisyloo

I am pretty sure the queen dying is a well thought our scenario that has been planned for in detail. The younger Royals have been increasing their duties for many years now. Why do you think that will bring chaos? She is independent of government. If people want seismic change then their opportunity is 12th December at the general election.

We’ve had brexit uncertianty for 3.5 years now. Yes it’s had an effect but the housing market had proved quite resilient (not unaffected).

The banks are in a better position than ever before due to various measure put in place since 2008 e.g. capital requirements.

Finally do you think the average unsophisticated should or will rely on one of those happening given that they (or their spouse) might lose their livelihood at the same time? Or would they be better getting a great fixed rate now and each month pay a little bit off s if something does happen at some point during their career (probably will) they are in a better position each month to deal with it?

BTW - I don’t think black swans events are impossible, but I think it will probably be something unforeseeble e.g. new type of disease (zombie apocalypse - ha ha) and therefore I think the best plan is for people to start gradually repaying when they can. When something does strike then most of them will be in a far better position with some contingency when it does happen. Things do and will happen (I’ve been made redundant 3 times I’ve the last 30 years) but I don’t believe they can always be reliably predicted so they need to be managed (with savings, insurance, taking ownership of ones career etc.).

MobileSaver

The-Joker wrote: »

There are so many black swan possibilities to name a few.....

The Queen finally dying = chaos many wanting huge changes

The derivative time bomb exploded = too big to fail banks failing

You obviously have no idea what is meant by a "black swan" event because the Queen dying would be no such thing. As for there being chaos when she does... words fail me. A few republicans will call for change while the vast majority will greet the new monarch with jubilation (not least as the coronation date will probably be designated a public holiday. )

The "derivative time bomb" only exists in your head because you fundamentally misunderstand how derivatives work.

phillw

The-Joker wrote: »

There are so many black swan possibilities to name a few.....

If you can predict it then surely it's not a black swan event?

A black swan is an unpredictable event that is beyond what is normally expected of a situation and has potentially severe consequences. Black swan events are characterized by their extreme rarity, their severe impact, and the practice of explaining widespread failure to predict them as simple folly in hindsight.

The queens death (like our own) is an absolute certainty and predicting when it will happen becomes easier as each day that we didn't die is ticked off.

Crashy_Time

The-Joker wrote: »

If the brexit party splits the vote then labour will get through the middle and property will will crash.

The uncertainty is already causing chaos and the perma property bulls are getting mighty unsure about their stand

Yep, the tone on here and on the main board has changed noticeably of late, very amusing really......

triathlon

Sailtheworld wrote: »

I would've said that everyone thinks it's a raging certainty that there will be a significant reduction in prices at some point.

When is the debate. If you've been calling for a correction for a long time (i.e. it's long overdue) then you've been calling it wrong. Don't feel bad for not being able to call house price crashes - not many people can.

You might find it liberating to embrace this fact and make decisions based on what you know rather than what you pretend to know.

No, not everyone thinks that "it's a raging certainty that there will be a significant reduction in house prices".
But nearly everyone does think that there probably will not be a significant rise in property prices in the near future