Housing Crash Coming

love2learn

So MoneySupermarket shows Fixed rate mortgages to be the cheapest at the moment, which is unusual, normally it's trackers, so the banks obviously expect rates to be cut either due to a recession or a No Deal Brexit or both.

If a recession comes so will job losses and default rates on mortgages will increase, probably tightening up lending criteria.

With Countries in the West reporting bad manufacturing figures and PMI's and Germany close to a recession... I'm thinking a housing Crash/Correction is coming over the next few years.

Anyone else?

sst1234

House prices only crash when there is a surprise/shock. No deal Brexit or a US China trade war is not a surprise.
Everyone’s been talking about a no deal Brexit for so long that it’s priced in. What’s stopping prices from going much lower though is the shortage of housing stock. People are holding off moving which is cancelling out any price drops due to Brexit.
Interest rate drop is a definite possibility, so could be a good time to get the lowest rate tracker.

Marvel1

Debate house prices is the best to post this https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/forumdisplay.php?f=149

System

Data from all round the world is turning nasty. It's likely to be the first ever *global* recession, which will make this recession a very big one. Mortgage rates will probably stay low, but recessionary job losses will be the killer for the housing market, although many here will maintain that unemployment will have no effect on the housing market.

Davy_Jones_II

love2learn wrote: »

So MoneySupermarket shows Fixed rate mortgages to be the cheapest at the moment, which is unusual, normally it's trackers, so the banks obviously expect rates to be cut either due to a recession or a No Deal Brexit or both.

If a recession comes so will job losses and default rates on mortgages will increase, probably tightening up lending criteria.

With Countries in the West reporting bad manufacturing figures and PMI's and Germany close to a recession... I'm thinking a housing Crash/Correction is coming over the next few years.

Anyone else?

An important question to ask is whether you’ve been consistently predicting this, incorrectly, for years, or if the recent data has changed your previous view.

Some people always have the same predictions, and just cherry-pick the data to use to justify it; are you in this camp, or have you been posting that you think there’ll be growth in the last?

Zero_Sum

@Triathlon in 3, 2, 1.......

System

Davy_Jones_II wrote: »

An important question to ask is whether you’ve been consistently predicting this, incorrectly, for years, or if the recent data has changed your previous view.

Some people always have the same predictions, and just cherry-pick the data to use to justify it; are you in this camp, or have you been posting that you think there’ll be growth in the last?

Global economic data has turned really nasty in recent weeks. People who think that will not affect the UK or their own financial circumstances may be in for a nasty shock.

Tea_Pea_Dee

Zero_Sum wrote: »

@Triathlon in 3, 2, 1.......

When I read these threads, I keep thinking of that film "The Three Faces of Eve" *sighs*.

Have asked, nay, begged for this thread and that other pile of nonsense about houses staying on the market and at ridiculous prices (according to Eve) and not being reduced, to be moved to Debate House prices. Do genuine posters/browsers need to wade through treacle to get to a thread that actually helps them re. house buying/renting.

Rant over for now

System

It is vital that buyers, sellers and owners prepare for the storm accordingly, IMO, which is where MSE can best help. Trying to censor news about recession on MSE is not going to stop a recession.

Davesnave

Diocletian_II wrote: »

Trying to censor news about recession on MSE .... .

No one wants to censor the stuff you and Crashy write about, which is why there is a section of MSE specifically devoted to it, called 'Debate House Prices and the Economy.'


Because it is a debate, such matters were placed in their own section, as the contentiousness frequently resulted in posters being PPR. The arguments continued, became personal, and Martin eventually threatened to take down the whole section if people wouldn't behave.


Now, apparently, the mods and helpers seem to have forgotten that, so thinly disguised threads that belong on 'Debate' are appearing here.


We shall have to see for how long......

System

It is vital that buyers, sellers and owners are able to prepare for the storm accordingly, in a practical sense, which is what this forum is all about. Otherwise, it is more likely readers and posters could face financial ruin, which is contrary to the ethos of MSE, as a money saving forum.