ZingPowZing v bowlhead challenge

[Deleted User]

Ah yes, fair enough.

Tesla was a great call anyway.

AnotherJoe

There's more to come there. Could be 800-1000 end of this year barring a black Swan (and we do havea grey one atm, coronovirus. )
P.s I think there's plenty of room for SUPP to fall. It could easily halve from here this year

AnotherJoe

AnotherJoe wrote: »

There's more to come there. Could be 800-1000 end of this year barring a black Swan (and we do havea grey one atm, coronovirus. )
P.s I think there's plenty of room for SUPP to fall. It could easily halve from here this year

At this rate TSLA could be 800 by end of [STRIKE]the week[/STRIKE] tomorrow LOL.

Up 17% TODAY at 765 currently. Could be start of the short squeeze a lot have been expecting Though those in the know say that hasnt started yet..

( SUPP down nearly 5% today )

Linton

Madness. Google tells me that TSLA has a market cap of $141Bn whilst Toyota has a Market Cap of $100Bn. When, or more importantly if, Tesla ever achieves Toyota's level of sales (9.6M vehicles in the year to March 2019) why should it be worth more? Tesla vehicle sales in Q4 2019: 110000. so say 500,000 annually, 5% of Toyota.

Username999

Linton wrote: »

Madness. Google tells me that TSLA has a market cap of $141Bn whilst Toyota has a Market Cap of $100Bn. When, or more importantly if, Tesla ever achieves Toyota's level of sales (9.6M vehicles in the year to March 2019) why should it be worth more? Tesla vehicle sales in Q4 2019: 110000. so say 500,000 annually, 5% of Toyota.

Tesla is about much more than the number of vehicles it sells.

Lokolo

Username999 wrote: »

Tesla is about much more than the number of vehicles it sells.

At the moment, no it isn't. Have a look at their quarterly reports. Over 90% of their revenue comes from cars. And their only profit comes from cars. Yes they can become more than just a car manufacturer, and yes that is their aim. This is not currently the case.

I do believe they could potentially be a great company, but over the past few months watching their stocks soar on getting a profit over the quarter is insane to me. It is a fashion stock.

And this is coming from who purchased TSLA at $23. Although sold a long time ago.

Lokolo

Linton wrote: »

Madness. Google tells me that TSLA has a market cap of $141Bn whilst Toyota has a Market Cap of $100Bn. When, or more importantly if, Tesla ever achieves Toyota's level of sales (9.6M vehicles in the year to March 2019) why should it be worth more? Tesla vehicle sales in Q4 2019: 110000. so say 500,000 annually, 5% of Toyota.

It's a fashion stock. There are many fanboys and with the ease of purchasing shares now people will buy them because they are the in thing. Just look at bitcoin. There's no fundamental behind bitcoin yet look at the price and the history.

They could become a great company around battery research and manufacturing, solar and car manufacturing. But it is a big gamble. I am surprised other players in the battery industry haven't done more in this area. The one thing that Tesla has done well at, its got into China. A big market.

The ICE manufacturers do need to do something though, Tesla are cornering them because of inability of battery manufacturers to scale. This is why Tesla have purchased battery manufacturers over the world.

AnotherJoe

Linton wrote: »

Madness. Google tells me that TSLA has a market cap of $141Bn whilst Toyota has a Market Cap of $100Bn. When, or more importantly if, Tesla ever achieves Toyota's level of sales (9.6M vehicles in the year to March 2019) why should it be worth more? Tesla vehicle sales in Q4 2019: 110000. so say 500,000 annually, 5% of Toyota.

There's something off about your figures. Toyota market cap is about 200b and is actually now the only auto co with a market cap above Tesla.

The market is or should be forward looking. to take an extreme example, Toyota's stubborn insistence on mild hybrids (under the fake "self charging moniker) and holding back on EVs because they think that hydrogen is the future, could blows up in their face with massive EU fines and a cliff edge fall off in sales. Look at the news this morning. Plenty of people will be thinking "well I'll hold off on buyinga new petrol car and wait for an EV because why woudl I buy a fossil fuel if I can't drive it in cities or sell it for much since no one else will want one.

Also as said Tesla is about much more than just cars. Imagine if every home hada battery to store over night cheap electricity. Currently (ha ha) and as of yesterday, Tesla controls half the worlds supply of batteries. Which also gives other auto cos problems in getting enough supply to make their own EVS. Not all car companies will survive the next five years.

cloud_dog

The risk for Tesla is that they are not very good at making cars efficiently (manufacturing processes), and the barriers to entry for EVs are really quite low (compared to ICE).

Where they currently have an advantage is in the battery chemistry and any IPR they may be able to licence.

EVs are the way to go as a replacement for the majority of current ICE vehicles, although hydrogen is also an option, perhaps for larger / commercial operations. I saw an excellent presentation (I'll try to find the URL for it) where the cost of upgrading fuel stations to provide quick charging EV points was £70k (from memory) and the cost to roll-out hydrogen capacity was £1m (from memory) per fuel station.

I don't for one minute believe an organisation such as Toyota will not adjust and bring to the market equal or better cars than Tesla.

EDIT: Presentation by Ken Hoffman. I have a nickel investment so came across this presentation via that route, and it is one of the most well rounded presentations I have seen. Those not interested in Cu/Ni supply/demand etc should skip forward to approx 9m 30s.

The bit about roll-out costs for hydrogen/EV points is pretty much at the end; EV $75k, hydrogen approx $2m-$3m.

Linton

AnotherJoe wrote: »

There's something off about your figures. Toyota market cap is about 200b and is actually now the only auto co with a market cap above Tesla.

Thanks, I cant now find where my figure came from. However the point still remains that Tesla is way over-priced..

The market is or should be forward looking. to take an extreme example, Toyota's stubborn insistence on mild hybrids (under the fake "self charging moniker) and holding back on EVs because they think that hydrogen is the future, could blows up in their face with massive EU fines and a cliff edge fall off in sales. Look at the news this morning. Plenty of people will be thinking "well I'll hold off on buyinga new petrol car and wait for an EV because why woudl I buy a fossil fuel if I can't drive it in cities or sell it for much since no one else will want one.

At the moment hybrids can be seen as the most practical option for many customers, look at the sales figures. Stubborn insistence at making a profit is something investors should welcome. I have little doubt that Toyota and many of the other global manufacturers will have full EVs comparable with, or better than, Tesla's by the time they become competitive in the mass market against other options.

Also as said Tesla is about much more than just cars. Imagine if every home had battery to store over night cheap electricity. Currently (ha ha) and as of yesterday, Tesla controls half the worlds supply of batteries. Which also gives other auto cos problems in getting enough supply to make their own EVS. Not all car companies will survive the next five years.

You dont think anyone else can make batteries were that to make economic sense? Panasonic are moving away from Tesla and working with Toyota, see https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-panasonic-results/tesla-up-20-after-panasonic-posts-first-quarterly-profit-at-battery-business-idUKKBN1ZX0MO. But just like Tesla is about much more than cars, a globally successful and profitable car manufacturer is about much more than clever technology. Technology is the easy part. I think it much more easy for a company with the ability to design, manufacture, sell and provide aftercare for vehicles across the world at a profit to acquire technology than one with technology to acquire the ability to do these far important tasks for the business to make money.



Of course in 10 years time Tesla could be the largest and most profitable business in its sector, but this is far from certain. My reason for not wanting any significant investment in Tesla is that its shares are priced as if it were practically guaranteed. Look at the history of technology, the early pioneers rarely enjoyed long term success.