Electric Companies Hike Prices after motorists switch to EV

Bachelorplace

Arklight said:

AFAICS the purpose of moving to EV has nothing to do with the environment, or cost. It's about providing a captive market to shore up the UK's ailing manufacturing industry, and trying to position the UK as a leader in EV, renewable energy, and autonomous vehicles. Not necessarily a bad thing, and unusual forward planning for a British government. 

Current road tax makes £35bn per year for the Exchequer, so that will be coming back someway or another. In the early phases I would expect some hefty increases in fuel duty for those who are trying to cling on to gas guzzlers, to offset those who have moved. Which might decide your car purchase in the next decade or so.

Overall, EV's should still save you money in maintenance and running costs, if you are buying one now.

i had not thought of that. 
My first thought was that VED would suddenly appear on EV. But yes, fuel duty what a clever observation to force people out of them, that is smart. And very bad also. 
I was about to discuss the value of used top end ICE cars going up in 2030 - but this makes me question that notion. With the exception of V8 and V6 petrol high end cars and so on. I think they will hold value for a while MAYBE.

Mickey666

All this panic and concern over banning ICEs and the rise of EVs is understandable because there are still many unknowns.

But.

I was watching a TV prgramme recently about the 'Age of Steam' and it occured to me that we (well, not us personally!) have been through all this before and it didn't seem to be the disaster that many people are now predicting.

Before steam engines were invented, we were largely reliant on horsepower.  Accordingly, a whole national infrastructure was built around the horse, which worked perfectly well.

When steam engines were invented, a whole national infrastructure was built around steam, which worked perfectly well and was revolutionary.

When the ICE was invented, a whole national infrastructure was built around this versatile form of power, which was revolutionary.

Now we are in the early days of another revolution, not only the EV but the general move away from fossil fuels, and a whole new national infrastructure will have to be developed.

We've been through similar technological revolutions, indeed our very civilisation is based on technological revolutions, so why all the doubt about whether this pending one will work or not?  No doubt there will be hiccups along the way, as there have always been, but make no mistake that it's going to happen.

ICEs won't disappear from the face of the planet of course.  Just as there are still groups of people who keep the old horse-drawn plough skills and traditions alive, the steam locomotive enthusiasts, the canal narrowboat afficionados and the vintage car movements, etc, there will be those who lovingly remember the 'good old days' of polluting towns and cities with petrol and diesel exhaust fumes and keep their old vintage Range Rovers, Mercedes, Audis and BMWs in working condition for the odd outing to the village fete in the summer or donation to the 'ICE museums'.

Meanwhile, the world at large will move on.  As it always has done.

AdrianC

Mickey666 said:

I was watching a TV prgramme recently about the 'Age of Steam' and it occured to me that we (well, not us personally!) have been through all this before and it didn't seem to be the disaster that many people are now predicting.

Before steam engines were invented, we were largely reliant on horsepower.  Accordingly, a whole national infrastructure was built around the horse, which worked perfectly well.

When steam engines were invented, a whole national infrastructure was built around steam, which worked perfectly well and was revolutionary.

When the ICE was invented, a whole national infrastructure was built around this versatile form of power, which was revolutionary.

Now we are in the early days of another revolution, not only the EV but the general move away from fossil fuels, and a whole new national infrastructure will have to be developed.

I'm not sure it's a great analogy.

The horse was used for local travel almost exclusively. The only people who travelled further were the elite, and they simply swapped horses.

The steam train was not personal transport.

When the ICE was invented, fuel was bought in cans from chemists - and the car was not only very, VERY rare, but very unreliable. It was primarily operated by enthusiasts, then by professionals.

Now the problem is that we've all got addicted to unfettered personal mobility. No new infrastructure has to be developed - electricity is everywhere. The problem is that our expectations have to adapt, and these threads regularly prove there's massive resistance to that.

Sure, there's difficulties in moving from ICE to BEV. Zealots play them down, luddites play them up. They are nowhere near as show-stopping as they were even just a couple of years ago, but they definitely still exist. They will become less major in a few years, though.
The main drawback for Joe Average at the moment is a cost barrier, but that's going to reduce in the next few years, too.
PHEVs ameliorate some of them, but retain some of the drawbacks of the ICE, but... BEVs introduce and exacerbate other issues - weight and raw materials, primarily, but there are logistical issues. Taxation is a major one that's yet to be addressed.

tberry6686

AdrianC said:

Mickey666 said:

I was watching a TV prgramme recently about the 'Age of Steam' and it occured to me that we (well, not us personally!) have been through all this before and it didn't seem to be the disaster that many people are now predicting.

Before steam engines were invented, we were largely reliant on horsepower.  Accordingly, a whole national infrastructure was built around the horse, which worked perfectly well.

When steam engines were invented, a whole national infrastructure was built around steam, which worked perfectly well and was revolutionary.

When the ICE was invented, a whole national infrastructure was built around this versatile form of power, which was revolutionary.

Now we are in the early days of another revolution, not only the EV but the general move away from fossil fuels, and a whole new national infrastructure will have to be developed.

I'm not sure it's a great analogy.

The horse was used for local travel almost exclusively. The only people who travelled further were the elite, and they simply swapped horses.

The steam train was not personal transport.

When the ICE was invented, fuel was bought in cans from chemists - and the car was not only very, VERY rare, but very unreliable. It was primarily operated by enthusiasts, then by professionals.

Now the problem is that we've all got addicted to unfettered personal mobility. No new infrastructure has to be developed - electricity is everywhere. The problem is that our expectations have to adapt, and these threads regularly prove there's massive resistance to that.

Sure, there's difficulties in moving from ICE to BEV. Zealots play them down, luddites play them up. They are nowhere near as show-stopping as they were even just a couple of years ago, but they definitely still exist. They will become less major in a few years, though.
The main drawback for Joe Average at the moment is a cost barrier, but that's going to reduce in the next few years, too.
PHEVs ameliorate some of them, but retain some of the drawbacks of the ICE, but... BEVs introduce and exacerbate other issues - weight and raw materials, primarily, but there are logistical issues. Taxation is a major one that's yet to be addressed.

No new infrastructure needed ? You are kidding I hope.  They will need tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of new charging points.  In many rural areas the current cables cannot take the expected increased loads and will need to be upgraded, except there are no plans to do so.  A large proportion of people have no access to off road parking so there will need to be some sort of local parking scheme full of charging points worked out (highly unlikely to happen imo).  Some sort of road charging system will have to be implimented to replace the current tax take from fuel. Then you have the problem of repairs and maintenance - few independent garages can work on ev's at the moment and people who would normally do their on repairs at home will not be able to do that anymore due to the way manufacturers are locking down the software and parts supplies (Tesla are terrible for this, unwilling to supply parts outside their approved repair shops and if the software detects any work done on them outside of an approved repairer you will be locked out of supercharging).

There are far more problems with this shift to ev's than most people realise and there is no way that any country will be ready to ban new ICE cars in 2030.  2050 might just about be possible.

Homer_home

SensibleSarah said:

I know several people with EVs who have also now had solar PV systems (and home storage batteries) fitted. Obviously there is a lump sum to get this type of system installed in the first place, but at least it puts you in control of your electrictity destiny in some part. Unlikely to do anything more than break even (at best) with this type of setup for the moment, but if electricity costs do jump significantly.... who knows. Won't work for everyone of course, but if I could afford it, I wouldn't hesitate to go this route in the next 12 months.

Well it's well over 12 months since you made this comment and I bet you didn't go down this route.......

Car_54

tberry6686 said:

AdrianC said:

Mickey666 said:

I was watching a TV prgramme recently about the 'Age of Steam' and it occured to me that we (well, not us personally!) have been through all this before and it didn't seem to be the disaster that many people are now predicting.

Before steam engines were invented, we were largely reliant on horsepower.  Accordingly, a whole national infrastructure was built around the horse, which worked perfectly well.

When steam engines were invented, a whole national infrastructure was built around steam, which worked perfectly well and was revolutionary.

When the ICE was invented, a whole national infrastructure was built around this versatile form of power, which was revolutionary.

Now we are in the early days of another revolution, not only the EV but the general move away from fossil fuels, and a whole new national infrastructure will have to be developed.

I'm not sure it's a great analogy.

The horse was used for local travel almost exclusively. The only people who travelled further were the elite, and they simply swapped horses.

The steam train was not personal transport.

When the ICE was invented, fuel was bought in cans from chemists - and the car was not only very, VERY rare, but very unreliable. It was primarily operated by enthusiasts, then by professionals.

Now the problem is that we've all got addicted to unfettered personal mobility. No new infrastructure has to be developed - electricity is everywhere. The problem is that our expectations have to adapt, and these threads regularly prove there's massive resistance to that.

Sure, there's difficulties in moving from ICE to BEV. Zealots play them down, luddites play them up. They are nowhere near as show-stopping as they were even just a couple of years ago, but they definitely still exist. They will become less major in a few years, though.
The main drawback for Joe Average at the moment is a cost barrier, but that's going to reduce in the next few years, too.
PHEVs ameliorate some of them, but retain some of the drawbacks of the ICE, but... BEVs introduce and exacerbate other issues - weight and raw materials, primarily, but there are logistical issues. Taxation is a major one that's yet to be addressed.

No new infrastructure needed ? You are kidding I hope.  They will need tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of new charging points.  In many rural areas the current cables cannot take the expected increased loads and will need to be upgraded, except there are no plans to do so.  A large proportion of people have no access to off road parking so there will need to be some sort of local parking scheme full of charging points worked out (highly unlikely to happen imo).  Some sort of road charging system will have to be implimented to replace the current tax take from fuel. Then you have the problem of repairs and maintenance - few independent garages can work on ev's at the moment and people who would normally do their on repairs at home will not be able to do that anymore due to the way manufacturers are locking down the software and parts supplies (Tesla are terrible for this, unwilling to supply parts outside their approved repair shops and if the software detects any work done on them outside of an approved repairer you will be locked out of supercharging).

There are far more problems with this shift to ev's than most people realise and there is no way that any country will be ready to ban new ICE cars in 2030.  2050 might just about be possible.

No, it won't. There is no reason why the motorist should be targetted to make up the taxation shortfall, apart from "We've always done it that way".

AdrianC

tberry6686 said:

No new infrastructure needed ? You are kidding I hope.  They will need tens (if not hundreds) of thousands of new charging points. 

That's relatively fine detail. The national grid infrastructure is already present to support them, to a greater or lesser extent.

In many rural areas the current cables cannot take the expected increased loads and will need to be upgraded, except there are no plans to do so.

I have the transformer for our little hamlet of eight houses and a farm just behind my garage. When the garage was built six years ago, Western Power took the opportunity to replace it. The one that came out was the original from when AC was brought here in the 60s. The one that went in was the same rating - 300A, fused at 200A, single-phase. I asked why. The answer was simple - the upstream infrastructure was not robust enough to allow them to complete the upgrades they'd like.
But I don't think that's that big a deal. Solar is becoming cheaper. Domestic power storage will become more common - even before considering grid<->vehicle. 

A large proportion of people have no access to off road parking so there will need to be some sort of local parking scheme full of charging points worked out (highly unlikely to happen imo).

Very likely to happen - and, indeed, already happening. It'll happen with commercial partners - supermarkets, shopping centres, car park operators - in partnership with charge network suppliers.

But just consider how many of those cars parked roadside are on 6k/pa PCPs anyway... With a 300 mile range, that's a charge a fortnight.

Some sort of road charging system will have to be implimented to replace the current tax take from fuel.

Yep, it will. And it's been being talked about for two decades now.

Car_54 said:

No, it won't. There is no reason why the motorist should be targetted to make up the taxation shortfall, apart from "We've always done it that way".

So where will the revenue shortfall come from? What will be increased instead?
Choices on what to tax are, of course, as much about behaviour modification as anything else - so ICEs will become more expensive to use, but the overall tax take will likely remain similar, and EVs will become liable to taxation, too. Dynamic road pricing is by far and away the most likely way to do it, because that helps to address congestion.

Using private cars in urban centres will become strongly discouraged, and park-and-rides with charging will become commonplace.

tberry6686 said:

Then you have the problem of repairs and maintenance - few independent garages can work on ev's at the moment

Trivial. Ten years ago, garages didn't have half the diagnostic kit they have now.

tberry6686 said:

and people who would normally do their on repairs at home will not be able to do that anymore due to the way manufacturers are locking down the software and parts supplies (Tesla are terrible for this, unwilling to supply parts outside their approved repair shops and if the software detects any work done on them outside of an approved repairer you will be locked out of supercharging).

Not EV-specific. Renault and Nissan don't do it with their EVs, but McLaren do with their ICEs. Manufacturers who do that will find customer goodwill is hard to regain, and residuals will be hit hard.

But I don't give the altar of St Elon much chance anyway, once mainstream manufacturers catch up (with they already are doing) and the emperor's clothes turn out to be made by Primani after all.