Trump - Trade Wars/Crash

ffacoffipawb

webjaved wrote: »

I'm sure when he starts a trade war it affects the stock market in one way - going down, not up.

The man's an idiot. Unfit to run a country.

dividendhero

Brian65 wrote: »

But I have to admit there is some logic in what Trump is doing to put America First

Just one small problem..US trade deficit has risen since Trumpski started his "Easy to win" trade war

Zero_Sum

worried_jim wrote: »

The incumbent president has only lost once in the last 100 years if the American economy is doing well and its booming at the moment so I fear there is almost zero chance of him losing.

Which one are you thinking of? As i can think of 2 in the last 40 years.

ffacoffipawb

worried_jim wrote: »

The incumbent president has only lost once in the last 100 years if the American economy is doing well and its booming at the moment so I fear there is almost zero chance of him losing.

How many have been assassinated?

Asking for a friend. :rotfl:

bd10

How these trade disputes will play out, who knows. But it brings plenty of black swans into the picture in addition to a Brexit risk, escalation in the mid-East just to name a few plus throw in an inverted yield curve, the best indicator with a 50-years track record of a US recession 1 year ahead... Now, assume we value stocks based on the NPV of expected cash flows. Will these cash flows not be lower in a slowdown? Yet equities remain strong. Question is how long it takes to adjust. Not looking good.

iglad

stphnstevey wrote: »

Potentially could create opportunities as some of China's companies are devalued

won't be much point when everything else has tanked

Carrieanne

worried_jim wrote: »

The incumbent president has only lost once in the last 100 years if the American economy is doing well and its booming at the moment so I fear there is almost zero chance of him losing.

Replace booming with crumbling in the interests of accuracy.

Candidate Trump said the truth when he kept repeating official data was fake. He also stated the stock market was a "big fat ugly bubble" (much like his head, many would remark), but he switched horses the instant he was elected to reveal himself as another stooge.

Shadowstats measures the true US numbers. CPI inflation at close to 10% instead of 2%, unemployment at 21% rather that 3.7% and GDP negative as it has been for practically every year of this century. http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data

Also, here's another US real inflation tracker: http://www.chapwoodindex.com/

iglad

staffie1 wrote: »

Good for US trade, though, so move your investments there?

Not if you are a soya bean farmer and as most of US companies manufacture their products / get parts from China I cannot see how a trade war helps the USA. Also you have the rising dollar which isn't good for exports prices.

Finally I have 52% portfolio holding in the USA and 16% in the UK, ( portfolio rebalance early this year).

markets are getting battered and it's all trumps fault plain and simple he's cost companies in the USA $billions is stock market valuations.

jamei305

Carrieanne wrote: »

Shadowstats measures the true US numbers.

No it doesn't. If the US economy has shrunk by a third in the last 20 years I will eat the pope's hat.

Thrugelmir

iglad wrote: »

Not if you are a soya bean farmer and as most of US companies manufacture their products / get parts from China I cannot see how a trade war helps the USA.

Manufacturing jobs are returning to the US from Asia. All part of Trump's America first policy. If you are in the rustbelt of the USA. A policy that you may well find appealing.