Can 3 million EVs replace 30 million oil cars?

tunnel

GreatApe wrote: »

Those who are ok with sharing (millions are fine by the fact millions use the trains tubes buses) can benefit from the 80-90% lower transport costs

Again, in a city......nice idea but totally unrealistic to the millions that choose to live away from the concrete jungles.

GreatApe wrote: »

Re not planning ahead.
Haven't you ever used Uber?Nope
You don't call and bookThen how?
You just hit where you want to go and a taxi comes within 5 minsHit what?
The new system will be quicker still probably average wait time will be less than 1 Mon
Enough time to grab your shoes put them on and tie the laces walk to the door walk outside and lock your door....turn around and there is the taxi waiting for you.

I'm guessing you're talking about that must have smart phone that i don't have nor want, the one that is paying for my solo trips in/on my wholly owned(not with a stranger)vehicle?

tunnel

Martyn1981 wrote: »

But you could spend the whole journey with me telling you all the latest RE, battery, EV news etc, without getting a word in .... worth every penny! :eek:

Is that a threat Mart....?:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

GreatApe

tunnel wrote: »

Again, in a city......nice idea but totally unrealistic to the millions that choose to live away from the concrete jungles.

I'm guessing you're talking about that must have smart phone that i don't have nor want, the one that is paying for my solo trips in/on my wholly owned(not with a stranger)vehicle?

Don't be an old grandpa
Smartphones are great
Get a smartphone
If for no other reason than a very efficient internet browser and a great sat nav
No need to walk upto a 300 watt desktop when a sub 3bwatt smartphone will do

Uber is great
You open the app
Put in the postcode of where you want to go
Then a driver comes to pick you up
One of its selling points is that it's much faster than booking a taxi via the phone
Out of London it takes me about 5-10 mins for them to arrive
In London 2-5 mins is more typical

GreatApe

DevilsAdvocate1 wrote: »

As I drive around 50,000 miles a year, I think it would be cheaper to have my own vehicle :-)

What do you do to clock up so many mile?

You would actually benefit the most from sharing
Your 50,000 miles probably costs you £10,000-£15,000 yearly in an oil car let's say the mid point
Your own half sized EV will reduce this to £5,000 a year
If you share it might be closer to £2,500 a year

High mileage users have the most to gain
A 50,000 mile a year driver could save £10,000 a year
Over a 40 year life of doing that the savings would add up to £400,000

Most People will opt to use these in and out of a city
Of course maybe 10-20% of the population will want to own their own car
If for no other reason then a lot of men like to have their own fast shiny premium cars
If you've got the money buy a new nice £50,000 Audi to show off with rather than use the 10p a mile ford self drive half sized EV...

So yes thanks for reminding me that a significant portion of the population are rich enough and want to show it off so won't be using shared EVs but will stick to their premium self drive cars as a way to show off their wealth.

Personal I don't understand why people show off wealth in that way (or even more oddly spend thousands or tens of thousands on customer number plates) but it exists and that it isn't something I would do doesn't mean significant portion of the population aren't like that

So yes I will change my mind
I thought it would go to 100% useage rapidly
I will amend that to 80% rapidly with 20% still opting for premium self owned non shared

tunnel

GreatApe wrote: »

when a sub 3bwatt smartphone will do

It's not that smart when you don't have a signal

GreatApe

tunnel wrote: »

It's not that smart when you don't have a signal

Connects to WiFi too
And if you don't have WiFi then your desktop computer is pretty dumb too

Plus there are apps which let you connect to lots of public WiFi spots for free
I was in a dead zone couple of days ago but still had WiFi as if you are with vurgin media they have millions of WiFi spots you can connect to automatically for free

Trains also have 15mins free which is useful
Tube also has WiFi so you can call and text there too

Plus you can watch movies or listen to music

Anyway why am I trying to sell smartphones to you
A billion a sold each year
There is demand for them

tunnel

GreatApe wrote: »

Connects to WiFi too
And if you don't have WiFi then your desktop computer is pretty dumb too

Plus there are apps which let you connect to lots of public WiFi spots for free
I was in a dead zone couple of days ago but still had WiFi as if you are with vurgin media they have millions of WiFi spots you can connect to automatically for free

Trains also have 15mins free which is useful
Tube also has WiFi so you can call and text there too

Plus you can watch movies or listen to music

Anyway why am I trying to sell smartphones to you
A billion a sold each year
There is demand for them

Great if you want to be in your very own always connected world, please...continue....but be carefull you don't get knocked over by that driverless uber while looking down at your latest must have addition as you are stepping into the road.

ed110220

DevilsAdvocate1 wrote: »

After I was attacked in a taxi on 2 separate occaions I would not use a taxi or an Uber if I was on my own.

I would suggest that the actual risk of death or serious injury per km travelled is much higher by motorbike than taxi. Reminds me of one of the women who led the anti MMR vaccine scare showing her understanding of risk by being photographed driving while talking on her mobile

But anyway back to the original topic, this is all very speculative. First we don't have full autonomous driving yet and there is no guarantee it will come soon. Second we don't know how people will react to it if it is available. How many people will use it? How will they use it? Will many people give up their own vehicles for shared ones? If it becomes popular, will journeys increase because road travel becomes easier and people can work, watch TV, sleep etc on their journey? Will conventionally sized vehicles be used, say autonomous versions of models used for private use, or will there be special smaller vehicles? There are multiple levels of unknowns at the moment. Really we need to be putting more effort into electrifying transport now with current technologies rather than relying on things that may or may not come at an unknown point in the future.

GreatApe

tunnel wrote: »

Great if you want to be in your very own always connected world, please...continue....but be carefull you don't get knocked over by that driverless uber while looking down at your latest must have addition as you are stepping into the road.

Ok grandpa I'll try not to get run over

GreatApe

ed110220 wrote: »

I would suggest that the actual risk of death or serious injury per km travelled is much higher by motorbike than taxi. Reminds me of one of the women who led the anti MMR vaccine scare showing her understanding of risk by being photographed driving while talking on her mobile

But anyway back to the original topic, this is all very speculative. First we don't have full autonomous driving yet and there is no guarantee it will come soon. Second we don't know how people will react to it if it is available. How many people will use it? How will they use it? Will many people give up their own vehicles for shared ones? If it becomes popular, will journeys increase because road travel becomes easier and people can work, watch TV, sleep etc on their journey? Will conventionally sized vehicles be used, say autonomous versions of models used for private use, or will there be special smaller vehicles? There are multiple levels of unknowns at the moment. Really we need to be putting more effort into electrifying transport now with current technologies rather than relying on things that may or may not come at an unknown point in the future.

Without self drive software electrifying transportation is going to be slow very slow

Try building 200 million EVs each year with 50KWh battery packs
We don't have the battery or mining capacity for that

But with self drive software you don't need to build 200 million EVs each year with 50KWh packs
Instead the same mileage can be achieved with 1/10th as many cars using 1/5th the size of battery.

That is a 50x difference in infrastructure to build batteries and EVs

What is more likely or desirable?
That the world builds 200 giga factories and the associated mining
Or self drive software is invented so we only need 4 giga factories and the associated mining?

Self drive software is a massive enabling technology
It will arrive and it will change everything