Can 3 million EVs replace 30 million oil cars?

Piddles

Why Tesla’s best hope may lie in robotaxis

What that article basically says is that Musk is stuck between a rock and hard place. He needs to reduce (and has) Tesla prices to grow demand and meet his ambitious growth targets, yet make enough profit for his heavy investment plans. The stock has lost 14% this year and it seems the markets may just dismiss Tesla as just another car maker soon. One that's about to get a whole load of new competition.

What he needs to show investors is that customers are prepared to fork out the $7,000 for the self-driving software (nearly all of which will go to the bottom line) on the promise that they can rent out their cars as robotaxis from the second half of next year.

I have a great deal of time for Musk's disruptive activities, but this seems like snake oil salesmanship of the worst kind. No one but him seems to think it's possible, not even his own staff.

He risks damaging the reputation of AVs, and the huge benefits they are likely to bring society.

But then, what if he's proved right.....

DevilsAdvocate1

GreatApe wrote: »

Don't be an old grandpa
Smartphones are great
Get a smartphone
If for no other reason than a very efficient internet browser and a great sat nav
No need to walk upto a 300 watt desktop when a sub 3bwatt smartphone will do

Uber is great
You open the app
Put in the postcode of where you want to go
Then a driver comes to pick you up
One of its selling points is that it's much faster than booking a taxi via the phone
Out of London it takes me about 5-10 mins for them to arrive
In London 2-5 mins is more typical

Last week we were in Amsterdam and decided to book an Uber from our hotel to the city centre. Initially the app said it was 8 minutes away. It actually took 30 minutes to arrive.

GreatApe

DevilsAdvocate1 wrote: »

Last week we were in Amsterdam and decided to book an Uber from our hotel to the city centre. Initially the app said it was 8 minutes away. It actually took 30 minutes to arrive.

That's horrible, surely with such slow service Uber and apps to book taxis will go the way of the dodo.....That or your example isn't typical

Martyn1981

Piddles wrote: »

What that article basically says is that Musk is stuck between a rock and hard place. He needs to reduce (and has) Tesla prices to grow demand and meet his ambitious growth targets, yet make enough profit for his heavy investment plans. The stock has lost 14% this year and it seems the markets may just dismiss Tesla as just another car maker soon. One that's about to get a whole load of new competition.

How is the share price doing compared to the 2010 $17 IPO?

Amy idea what percentage of Tesla shares have been 'shorted' in an attempt to reduce the share price and potentially break the company.

Regarding new competition, technically they've been competing with the whole ICEV industry for nearly a decade. Recent articles from the established car press have the TM3 beating similar priced BMW3 series cars, and one report pointing out how far behind the 2012 TMS the big German companies still are, suggesting that with enough effort and energy over the next 3yrs they may be able to match those TMS specs in 2022, meaning they'll then only be a decade behind Tesla.


Edit - Here are some articles from Motor Trend a US mag I used to subscribe to.

The TM3 'won' best compact luxury sedan (open competition, not BEV):

TESLA MODEL 3 VS. BMW 330I VS. GENESIS G70 COMPARISON: WHO BUILDS THE BEST COMPACT LUXURY SEDAN?


And they've also just placed the TMS 2013 car of the year, as the ultimate COTY over their 70yrs.

Ultimate Car of the Year Introduction: 70 Years of Remarkable Cars

ABrass

Self driving cars won't reduce car use much on its own it'll just increase traffic. That traffic may be more pleasant to sit in for those with self driving cars but it'll be the same or worse in terms of time lost.

To actually reduce the number of cars on the road (traffic) you need to increase the number of people per vehicle. Ride sharing is in theory the way to bring that about, not Uber or Lyft but actual ride sharing.

In that sense the way to reduce traffic isn't self driving cars, it's self driving busses, minibuses and people carriers. We have this already, it's generally called public transport. Take that model and allow it to be more frequent, cheaper, more reactive and cover the last mile.

Busses for the main arteries, minibuses for smaller routes and people carriers for last mile. With the last two flexing as demand does. During the rush hour you might only get to your street, during off hours you might get to your door.

This also has the effect of reducing the need for as many private cars. If you live in London then you don't need a car for the most part, or fewer cars per household. Which gets us back to GreatApe's original post.

This is a natural monopoly area, you could farm out bits of it or come to some shared approach (think the Link cash machine system) but it's going to be the same as the privatised bus system that has been inflicted on towns other than London but more pervasive if there isn't a lot more joined up thinking.

DevilsAdvocate1

GreatApe wrote: »

That's horrible, surely with such slow service Uber and apps to book taxis will go the way of the dodo.....That or your example isn't typical

We would have booked another one later in the day but were put off, so we took the train instead. This was also cheaper than the Uber and the station was close to the hotel.

DevilsAdvocate1

ABrass wrote: »

Busses for the main arteries, minibuses for smaller routes and people carriers for last mile. With the last two flexing as demand does. During the rush hour you might only get to your street, during off hours you might get to your door.

Which would be an absolute nightmare if you were a parent travelling with a toddler or baby or both.



And would there we plenty of space for pushchairs / double buggys? Some buses around have a small space at the front for wheelchairs and pushchairs. Wheelchairs take priority and if this area is full you have to wait for the next bus to arrive.



I remember bursting into tears once when two coach drivers had decided to change routes and we were all told to move coaches. Both my 3 year old and baby were asleep and I had to organise my pushchair as well. Neither bus driver offered to help. Lucikly a couple of elderly women offered to help - one took my pushchair and the other took the baby.

ABrass

Why would it be worse than current public transport? At worst you would be limited to the (as I imagine it) major arteries, but with more busses in use that should make the US's experience better.

My thoughts aren't to ban public vehicles but to reduce the need for them. Take the easy wins (everyone with a town based home/job) and then work on the difficult people (all babies and anything to do with them). If along the way you cut traffic for the mums, dad's and babies then so much the better.