Can 3 million EVs replace 30 million oil cars?

tunnel

Piddles wrote: »

Bus(don't do), train(never been on one), tube(no thanks,don't live in London, see previous), airplane(upgrade), taxi(use own vehicle), cinema(streaming), supermarket(home delivery), swimming pool changing room(cubicle), doctors surgery waiting room(where did that one come from?)....

You probably won't have to, but you'll be paying more (like some of the above).

I choose paying more thanks, just have to resist that new super fandango smart something or other to pay for it(something i've managed to do for the past 20 years quite easily)

GreatApe wrote: »

You can have and own your own self drive car which might cost $30,000 and you own it 24 hours a day

Most other people will effectively rent a car and own it for about 1.5h a day at a cost of about 80% lower than your version

Even many who don't want to share when faced with the reality of fully owning a car all to themselves or paying 80% less to share/rent one will opt for the 80% off version

Why not extend the idea to solving the housing crisis, share your home with a stranger. at least the bed will be kept warm, same concept......except.....you wouldn't do that would you, same as i wouldn't share a vehicle with someone i don't know....oh and i forgot to add, i ride a motorbike everywhere(all weathers) so when do you think autonomous motorbikes will be available or will i be forced off the road to make way for this fantasy?

Don't get me wrong, i do understand the concept...but it's not practical for everyone. Maybe in a city....yes, but in the sticks where i live it just won't work

DevilsAdvocate1

GreatApe wrote: »

I was going to say they are probably a gimmick

Anyway sure let useage increase its fine these are cheap affordable
Let's asset without useage increase we go from 30 million to 3 million cars
Even if useage increases by 33% these 3 million robo EVs become 4 million

Still significantly less than the 30 million we currently have

Also imo people will share much more. So many cars doing almost the exact same route especially for schools and work.
It might even be regulated to be nessaery
Imagine the half sized Tesla with 3 tandem seats
You have your own seat and no one next to you
The person in front or behind is enclosed in their own space maybe by glass or plastic separating you.
These can be say average 2.5 persons per car rather than 1.25 so you reduce number of vehicles miles by 50% while keeping passenger miles the same


Also for hub to hub trips eg London to Birmingham
You can possibly have quad length slightly wider version of the model 3
4 passengers per row. 12 rows in total. 48 passengers per vehicle
Much Smaller than a coach or bus and replaces 16 three seater robo EVs
Can do 80mph get to Birmingham in ultra efficient manner taking up less roads less energy
The smaller pods can ferry people to the hub areas. Eg the first service station in North West London and from a service station from South east Birmingham. No need to travel into the centre to take hubs.

You could have triple decker versions with close to 150 passengers
Allow it to do 120mph on the motorway and it's a good replacement for rail and flying
1h London to Birmingham
4h London to Edinburgh with two 15 mins stops along the way

But I don't think these high capacity versions would be necessary
The 3 seater half sized versions will be so cheap so energy efficient and still reduce traffic that they will be more comfortable and likely make higher seat versions unnecessary

You could have urban and motorway versions thought
3 seater more aero lower down higher speed motorway versions and more comfortable urban slower speed versions. Also there will likely be sleeper versions. Maybe only 2 passengers but these will be great for long distance travel. Get a pod from London at midnight let it drive you to Edinburgh at 60mph go to sleep wake up at 7am in Edinburgh. Much more comfortable than flying the same route or even using cattle class trains and much cheaper and lower energy use than both. Longer distances could be covered over the same 7h doing 90mph if nessaery but not much demand for that in the UK as most major cities and hubs are well under 400 miles

It basically sounds like a bus or a taxi. I prefer the freedom of having my own car, to be able to just go outside, jump in and go to where I need. I don't want to plan ahead or have to order a car. And like another poster said, I don't want to share with a stranger.


There is a reason I don't use taxis when on my own and that's because I've been in a dangerous situation not just once, but twice. Won't risk it again.



This system isn't for me.

GreatApe

tunnel wrote: »

I choose paying more thanks, just have to resist that new super fandango smart something or other to pay for it(something i've managed to do for the past 20 years quite easily)


Why not extend the idea to solving the housing crisis, share your home with a stranger. at least the bed will be kept warm, same concept......except.....you wouldn't do that would you, same as i wouldn't share a vehicle with someone i don't know....oh and i forgot to add, i ride a motorbike everywhere(all weathers) so when do you think autonomous motorbikes will be available or will i be forced off the road to make way for this fantasy?

Don't get me wrong, i do understand the concept...but it's not practical for everyone. Maybe in a city....yes, but in the sticks where i live it just won't work

There are two different parts
Self drive software will be created
People will share cheap fleet taxis

You seem to be suggesting that you and some people like you won't share.
So what? Even if you and people like you are 20% of the population. The other 80% can benefit from cheaper shared fleets and you can continue using your bike

You too will benefit indirectly as traffic will be less

And yes quite likely your motorcycle will be banned from using public roads but not anytime soon if I had to guess it's 20+ years out for a ban on human driven cars/bikes

GreatApe

DevilsAdvocate1 wrote: »

It basically sounds like a bus or a taxi. I prefer the freedom of having my own car, to be able to just go outside, jump in and go to where I need. I don't want to plan ahead or have to order a car. And like another poster said, I don't want to share with a stranger.

There is a reason I don't use taxis when on my own and that's because I've been in a dangerous situation not just once, but twice. Won't risk it again.

This system isn't for me.

That's fine you keep using the current system whatever that may be or use the new system but book and pay for all 3 seats so you have the mini taxi all to yourself

Those who are ok with sharing (millions are fine by the fact millions use the trains tubes buses) can benefit from the 80-90% lower transport costs

Re not planning ahead.
Haven't you ever used Uber?
You don't call and book
You just hit where you want to go and a taxi comes within 5 mins
The new system will be quicker still probably average wait time will be less than 1 Mon
Enough time to grab your shoes put them on and tie the laces walk to the door walk outside and lock your door....turn around and there is the taxi waiting for you.

GreatApe

tunnel wrote: »

Why not extend the idea to solving the housing crisis, share your home with a stranger

I've done that I'd guess most people have
You must be pretty well off if you've never shared anything
You are quite out of touch with normal people
Normal people share a lot of things including housing

I shared housing for nearly 10 years from age 18-27 as I couldn't comfortably afford to rent a whole house to myself. Great if you can afford it have nice things all to yourself but most (80-90%) could do with more disposable income so if 15p a mile taxis existed they would likely use that rather than spend the upfront £5-10k learning to drive or spend the £5k or so to run and maintenance an ok-ish car

I very well understand the concept that not everyone is resources limited. That's why £50,000 new car market exists rather than everyone buying a £15,000 ford. There are well off people and rich people. They can have a car to themselves. Or two cars to themselves. Or an expensive £100k car to themselves. That's fine no one is going to make cheap shared vehicles mandatory if you can afford a £100k sports car to yourself great for you

Us peasants will have to continue to slum it by trading in our 12 year old diesel cars for 12 month old shared EVs

DevilsAdvocate1

GreatApe wrote: »

That's fine you keep using the current system whatever that may be or use the new system but book and pay for all 3 seats so you have the mini taxi all to yourself

Those who are ok with sharing (millions are fine by the fact millions use the trains tubes buses) can benefit from the 80-90% lower transport costs

Re not planning ahead.
Haven't you ever used Uber?
You don't call and book
You just hit where you want to go and a taxi comes within 5 mins
The new system will be quicker still probably average wait time will be less than 1 Mon
Enough time to grab your shoes put them on and tie the laces walk to the door walk outside and lock your door....turn around and there is the taxi waiting for you.

After I was attacked in a taxi on 2 separate occaions I would not use a taxi or an Uber if I was on my own.

DevilsAdvocate1

GreatApe wrote: »

That's fine you keep using the current system whatever that may be or use the new system but book and pay for all 3 seats so you have the mini taxi all to yourself

Those who are ok with sharing (millions are fine by the fact millions use the trains tubes buses) can benefit from the 80-90% lower transport costs

Re not planning ahead.
Haven't you ever used Uber?
You don't call and book
You just hit where you want to go and a taxi comes within 5 mins
The new system will be quicker still probably average wait time will be less than 1 Mon
Enough time to grab your shoes put them on and tie the laces walk to the door walk outside and lock your door....turn around and there is the taxi waiting for you.

As I drive around 50,000 miles a year, I think it would be cheaper to have my own vehicle :-)

Martyn1981

tunnel wrote: »

Mart....you overlook one little issue and that is I(and many like myself) don't want to share a vehicle with a stranger. Maybe the younger generation are fine with it but.......no thanks!!:rotfl:

But you could spend the whole journey with me telling you all the latest RE, battery, EV news etc, without getting a word in .... worth every penny! :eek:

I know nowt about Uber, but I'm sure (from the tellybox) I've picked up on the words 'Ubershare', is that a way of sharing costs, vehicles?

Obviously, not saying everyone would have to share, I'm assuming that would be an 'ordering' choice, but saving money, and probably time if there are lots of occupied taxis going in your direction already, seems like a way of helping to reduce peak traffic and the number of vehicles needed as obviously peaks will dictate the number needed.

I recall some post/study on another forum suggesting the highest use of vehicles is a particular hour slot in the morning in London at about 30%, so that might be the target, but possible to go lower with shared journeys ...... plus, most people are fascinating, so a bit of interaction each day could do us all good shaking hands with the real world.

Piddles

DevilsAdvocate1 wrote: »

There is a reason I don't use taxis when on my own and that's because I've been in a dangerous situation not just once, but twice. Won't risk it again.

That is, of course, a very valid point. It's likely that there will be a whole range of options including exclusive, solo, gender specific shared, general shared, etc. all at different price points. But these places will have more sensors than a nuclear power station control room, so the perception may evolve that they are the safest of all shared spaces.

Piddles

DevilsAdvocate1 wrote: »

This system isn't for me.

You're not alone!

Research in the US puts you into the 60% group of sceptics. But the same research shows an almost total sceptic conversion rate after just three rides. Even the shared aspect in the US's more car centric society produced high approval ratings, to the riders and researchers surprise.

The upsides are so compelling for you personally and society generally, that it's worth keeping an open mind: https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/6020795/self-drive-software-and-half-sized-evs#11