Can 3 million EVs replace 30 million oil cars?

GreatApe

markin wrote: »

That 42% of kids that do walk, what are they going to do when its raining cats and dogs or its the coldest week of the year, They will want to go in a cab, and with EV's plus Autopilot, the is no way they can be expensive, the is already a cab company in Florida USA that have EVs And Advert funded driver and car, so its a free ride! Nickel ride



(*Breaking news* 14HR ago, They just shut down all services, after two years, If its a Money problem im sure they will be back up with a small fee. Add revenue is likely up and down so a small fee will help balance it out.)

"Nickel Ride says they are not saying goodbye but see you later as they intend to let riders know what their next steps will be. "

https://www.fox4now.com/news/local-news/free-nickel-rides-shuts-down-business-in-southwest-florida

You would have to charge a peak price to discourage use if you want to keep to your 3million cabs, I can tell you my car usage would increase 300% if it was just one third the price of a cab today.

I was going to say they are probably a gimmick

Anyway sure let useage increase its fine these are cheap affordable
Let's asset without useage increase we go from 30 million to 3 million cars
Even if useage increases by 33% these 3 million robo EVs become 4 million

Still significantly less than the 30 million we currently have

Also imo people will share much more. So many cars doing almost the exact same route especially for schools and work.
It might even be regulated to be nessaery
Imagine the half sized Tesla with 3 tandem seats
You have your own seat and no one next to you
The person in front or behind is enclosed in their own space maybe by glass or plastic separating you.
These can be say average 2.5 persons per car rather than 1.25 so you reduce number of vehicles miles by 50% while keeping passenger miles the same


Also for hub to hub trips eg London to Birmingham
You can possibly have quad length slightly wider version of the model 3
4 passengers per row. 12 rows in total. 48 passengers per vehicle
Much Smaller than a coach or bus and replaces 16 three seater robo EVs
Can do 80mph get to Birmingham in ultra efficient manner taking up less roads less energy
The smaller pods can ferry people to the hub areas. Eg the first service station in North West London and from a service station from South east Birmingham. No need to travel into the centre to take hubs.

You could have triple decker versions with close to 150 passengers
Allow it to do 120mph on the motorway and it's a good replacement for rail and flying
1h London to Birmingham
4h London to Edinburgh with two 15 mins stops along the way

But I don't think these high capacity versions would be necessary
The 3 seater half sized versions will be so cheap so energy efficient and still reduce traffic that they will be more comfortable and likely make higher seat versions unnecessary

You could have urban and motorway versions thought
3 seater more aero lower down higher speed motorway versions and more comfortable urban slower speed versions. Also there will likely be sleeper versions. Maybe only 2 passengers but these will be great for long distance travel. Get a pod from London at midnight let it drive you to Edinburgh at 60mph go to sleep wake up at 7am in Edinburgh. Much more comfortable than flying the same route or even using cattle class trains and much cheaper and lower energy use than both. Longer distances could be covered over the same 7h doing 90mph if nessaery but not much demand for that in the UK as most major cities and hubs are well under 400 miles

GreatApe

Piddles wrote: »

Then there is an eventual risk of an evolving marginalised underclass of people who get banned by the autonomous vehicle providers because they do daft stuff like trashing the vehicle whilst drunk, and for whom there will eventually be no alternative.

They can be fined rather than banned

If they repeat their actions they can be given access so long as they put down £100 or whatever to be used as a buffer for their misdeeds

If they are so inept that they continually trash cars then they are most likely unstable and inempt to the point that transport is the least of their worries

Such people probably have little desire or need to travel beyond most walking distances too

Or of course designs can be made to make them harder to trash and easier to clean and fix if that does happen. Certainly I think the inside seating will be easily exchangeable so as the seats are replaced maybe once or twice in the EVs life just to have a cleaner better experience for customers

markin

You would still need many 5/7 seat versions for family's, that is at the end of the day the reason most cars sit 5, And then you have the peak problem on bank holidays.



Triple deckers would cost billions to rise bridges, you may as well make them like bendy buses, or road trains.

Martyn1981

Piddles wrote: »

The capital cost of autonomous vehicles will be much higher, but utilisation rates will go from around 4% to 40% and average life mileage from around 100,000 to 400,000.

The unemployed will have cheap, fast transport to a much wider geographical area of employment opportunities.

So no, autonomous vehicles will be a great enabler for the poor.

The market will literally explode from the 'yuff' up since they are already adapting to smart tech and have less interest in cars.

Very rough guess but learning to drive, first very cheap sh car, and insurance, probably puts you £5k+ in the hole, before running costs. That's an awful lot of miles at say 25p/mile for an autonomous EV. Plus the time and effort savings from not learning to drive, and the time that can be spent wisely (or wasted if you want) as a passenger.

But the crucial requirement here, for a serious reduction in the road fleet, is journey sharing services/software. So many people travel the same route to work, one person per car, so theoretically separate journeys and costs could be reduced significantly via multiple pick ups and drop off along the same route.

GreatApe

markin wrote: »

You would still need many 5/7 seat versions for family's, that is at the end of the day the reason most cars sit 5, And then you have the peak problem on bank holidays.

Average is 2.35 persons per home in the UK (and this will fall towards 2 persons like in Germany)
Families of course exist so there can be demand for larger vehicles but even with families most of the time their trips are not all together. Plus there is no reason you couldn't just order two of these 3 seater cars to seat six people. Say mum and two kids in one pod and dad and two kids in another pod

But sure maybe 3% of the fleet can be 7 seaters to cover the very small amount of times there are more than 3 persons per vehicle and getting two separate ones is less desirable.

Triple deckers would cost billions to rise bridges, you may as well make them like bendy buses, or road trains.

I was imagining that each deck would be about 1.2 meters high just as in normal cars so the total height would be sub 4 meters which is lower than a bus or HGV. The way passengers disembark would be a simple cheap lift at either end. Ground d floor get off and new passengers board. The vehicle is lowered 1.2 meters. Then middle floor get on/off. Then vehicle is lowered 1.2 meters. And top floor get in/off

But as noted I don't think such high capacity vehicles will be required or even desirable they won't exist. These half sized 3 seater vehicles 85cm wide will do the bulk of the work
Perhaps full sized but still smaller 145cm wide 6 seater versions for families and longer routes
By comparison a model 3 is 185cm wide but can seat 3 per line
And then the full sized model y type with 3 passengers per line to give 9 seats

3 seater half sized probably doing 90% of mileage
6 seater slightly smaller sized probably doing 5% of milage
9 seater full sized probably doing 5% of mileage

Something like that

Perhaps a long way down the line we could have high speed (150mph) versions with 27 seats. Imagine three model Y bolted together so same width height but three times the length (or likely 2.5x as you don't need to replicate the trunk front and rear three times over). London to Birmingham in 50 mins or London to Edinburgh or London to Paris in about 2h40mins etc. Perhaps even longer versions with same width height but twice as long again to allow for 54 seats.

Hexane

GreatApe wrote: »

some 800,000 kids become adults per year in the UK
For them it's much more expensive to start driving
£2k lessons £2k insurance £2k crappy car plus fuel and maintenance and they might be looking at £8k to get into their crappy first new car. Or use the robo fleet for 35p a mile (falling to 15p a mile). Most of them will opt never to go through the expensive capital cost of learning and getting their first car.

Martyn1981 wrote: »

The market will literally explode from the 'yuff' up since they are already adapting to smart tech and have less interest in cars.

Very rough guess but learning to drive, first very cheap sh car, and insurance, probably puts you £5k+ in the hole, before running costs. That's an awful lot of miles at say 25p/mile for an autonomous EV. Plus the time and effort savings from not learning to drive,

Martyn I think there is some convergent evolution going on here - your ideas and the ideas of the substantial simian that you cannot see

Martyn1981

Hexane wrote: »

Martyn I think there is some convergent evolution going on here - your ideas and the ideas of the substantial simian that you cannot see

Yeah, not the first time I've posted those arguments. Even the silliest will move towards facts and rational ...... eventually.

tunnel

Martyn1981 wrote: »

so theoretically separate journeys and costs could be reduced significantly via multiple pick ups and drop off along the same route.

Mart....you overlook one little issue and that is I(and many like myself) don't want to share a vehicle with a stranger. Maybe the younger generation are fine with it but.......no thanks!!:rotfl:

Piddles

tunnel wrote: »

Mart....you overlook one little issue and that is I(and many like myself) don't want to share a vehicle with a stranger. Maybe the younger generation are fine with it but.......no thanks!!:rotfl:

Bus, train, tube, airplane, taxi, cinema, supermarket, swimming pool changing room, doctors surgery waiting room....

You probably won't have to, but you'll be paying more (like some of the above).

GreatApe

tunnel wrote: »

Mart....you overlook one little issue and that is I(and many like myself) don't want to share a vehicle with a stranger. Maybe the younger generation are fine with it but.......no thanks!!:rotfl:

You can have and own your own self drive car which might cost $30,000 and you own it 24 hours a day

Most other people will effectively rent a car and own it for about 1.5h a day at a cost of about 80% lower than your version

Even many who don't want to share when faced with the reality of fully owning a car all to themselves or paying 80% less to share/rent one will opt for the 80% off version