stockmarket and the elections

Linton

ISTM the immediate world reaction to the results of the elections will be mainly seen in the value of the £. if the £ falls the value of large companies across the world including those quoted on the LSE will rise In £ terms.

The worlds markets are far more concerned about Trump and China, and perhaps in the future Trump and Japan, Trump and Europe. And then there isTrump and Iran. These could have global impact, whereas BREXIT and political instability in the UK is a much more localised matter with marginal effects beyond our borders.

lpgm

fishpond wrote: »

assuming Nigel wins the european elections?

What are you assuming about Marine LePen? And the Greens? And the Belgian liberals?

jimjames

fishpond wrote: »

Has anyone got an idea what may happen to the u.k stockmarket on Tues, assuming Nigel wins the european elections?

It probably depends more on whether the results are in line with the opinion polls or widely different. It was predicted he would win, unless it's massively more or less I suspect him winning has no impact at all.

westv

Alz1986 wrote: »

Nothing. Britains a small cog in the wheel.

More medium sized I'd say seeing as it's currently the 5 largest economy.

Mickygg

It’s a wonder anyone asks any questions on here. The first 3 responses are all taking the p! Obviously nothing better to do on a Saturday afternoon.

OP the UK markets will mostly price in already expectations of the result. From what I see the expected result happened although the win majority may have a bit of a knock on the market in general but I wouldn’t see much happening.

However markets reactions are often hard to predict so will be interesting to see in the morning. I expect global issues will have much more of an impact than the euro election results.

talexuser

Mickygg wrote: »

The first 3 responses are all taking the p!

Obviously because nobody can predict the future - just give the same pros and cons of what might happen.

bowlhead99

Mickygg wrote: »

It’s a wonder anyone asks any questions on here. The first 3 responses are all taking the p! Obviously nothing better to do on a Saturday afternoon.

When the question is 'does anyone have idea what may happen in the future, if...', it's not surprising that the community lets out a collective groan at the inanity of the question, especially when there have been tens of threads pondering the effect of Brexit on markets, what is the best way to position your portfolio for the chance of x,y,z political event happening and so on.

It's a wonder anyone can still be bothered to trot out the same old answer that "markets will mostly price in already expectations of the result" but "markets reactions are often hard to predict" and 'global issues will have more of an impact than local ones'.

The OP has been a member of the forum for over a decade and so probably expected the answers they got. As you suggest, it's a wonder anyone asks questions on here... to which they already know what the answers will be.

EdGasketTheSecond

You need to look at the futures market to see what will happen. That runs non-stop. Looks like not much change so far.

Thrugelmir

Seems as if the Chinese are dumping US Treasuries. I'm sure that the US authorities have a played a war game to assess the likely impact of such an action. The temperature continues to rise. Where's the collateral damage likely to be?

MaxiRobriguez

Could rise... could fall... could stay the same.

In response to the OP, the answer to a completely predictable election is that markets are unchanged.

Not a lot likely to change at the moment. A gamechanger would be a general election in which Boris or Farage ran on a no deal ticket but it's unlikely to happen as it would be suicide for the Tories at the moment.

We might get a second referendum now with Labour starting to move but even that isn't going to move UK markets much. There might be some selling but equally there might be some risk takers who think they can pick up some cheap assets before a remain vote which will boost markets.

Personally I prefer to ignore politics when investing. At the moment the UK is cheap compared to the rest of the world because investors are ignoring it, so why wouldn't I have a portion of my portfolio in it? There's an equal amount of risk of buying other more expensive markets and likewise in bonds or cash. That's what diversifying is for.