Brexit - how it will change UK's future?

Kohoutek

Herzlos wrote: »

I can see us withdrawing and going back to normal (internationally at least) within a few years.
Or leaving with some bodgeddeal and a slow slide into irrelevance as everyone using us as a bridge to the EU bypasses us. Research funds will skip us, investment will skip us.

There was an article in the Economist last week making the point that the organised Europhile movement already outnumbers the organised Eurosceptic one, let alone in 10 years time (and clearly demography favours the Europhile movement).

If we leave the EU whether it's a good or bad deal, we may well have something similar to the UKIP/Farage pressure in the early 2010s but from the Europhile side by the mid/late 2020s.

By then the world will probably be even more chaotic too (e.g. more severe climate change effects, Putin succession, continued China v US tensions, more ME problems) so the idea of standing alone as a medium sized country will look even less attractive than now.

Thrugelmir

Kohoutek wrote: »

By then the world will probably be even more chaotic too (e.g. more severe climate change effects, Putin succession, continued China v US tensions, more ME problems) so the idea of standing alone as a medium sized country will look even less attractive than now.

Structural issues of the Euro need to be addressed. Phase 2 needs to commence sooner rather than later. Which could cause divergence within the wider EU.

penners324

Scotland leaving the UK will be an economic disaster for them. Tbey are far more linked to the UK than the UK is to the EU.
It would take decades to do without causing a total disintegration of the Scottish economy.
It's a complete fallacy that they're better off in the EU if the UK wasnt.

phillw

penners324 wrote: »

It's a complete fallacy that they're better off in the EU if the UK wasnt.

If they left the UK and joined the EU and their economy collapsed, then that would qualify them for investment from the EU and Scottish people could also find work in the EU

I accept that things will change considerably, but it does have some major benefits. One of which I'm sure they would be happy about is no longer being reliant on the English.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

If they left the UK and joined the EU and their economy collapsed, then that would qualify them for investment from the EU and Scottish people could also find work in the EU

More of those magic money trees. Those German forests are going to be severely depleted with the demands to bail other members out.

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

More of those magic money trees. Those German forests are going to be severely depleted with the demands to bail other members out.

Don't bail outs come from loans from the IMF?

I'm not saying it'll be easy, but over time they'll be better off & certainly better off than we will be (which is probably why there is project fear by the usual suspects to make them stay in the UK and out of the EU).