Brexit - how it will change UK's future?

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The underlying issues are far bigger than Brexit. The Brexit vote was an opportunity for many to express their discontentment with the establishment and the impact of the changing world. Income and wealth inequality are widening in the UK. Being in Europe isn't of direct benefit to many.

Some of the areas with a high percentage of leave voters, as a protest vote do directly benefit from the EU and are going to have major problems when we actually leave.

I can't see anyone having sympathy for them either, it's going to be tough for them. While whoever came up with the idea of persuading them to vote to leave as a protest vote is going to be rolling in money.

The tories will never sort out the underlying problems & there will be less money for anyone else to sort them out.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

Some of the areas with a high percentage of leave voters, as a protest vote do directly benefit from the EU and are going to have major problems when we actually leave.

What direct benefits are you referring too?

The tories will never sort out the underlying problems & there will be less money for anyone else to sort them out.

Labour's historic track record in managing the economy is appalling. Current leadership would be a disaster for the UK. Shame that Nu Labour didn't evolve from it's early status to take the middle ground. Instead clung onto ideals that are hopelessly outdated in this modern world.

melanzana

Parliament does NOT want....

WA,
Hard Brexit

So realistically what's left?

Just revoke and regroup IMO. Everyone, even the ERG and other hard Brexiters know the game is up now.

It might have worked, if there had been pre planning before A50 was invoked, and people were informed of all the issues, like now.

Anyway, whatever happens, if there is a crash out, the UK will have reneged on an International Agreement (GFA), and will have zero credibility around the World for making WTO trade deals. Even looking at the omnishambles over the last three years would make a potential trader shudder.

But Trump will be there, and he will dictate the terms, just like China.

We could be in a pincer movement, with no hope, little sovereignty, accepting immigrants from everywhere to ensure a trade agreement and so on.

It is a farce of epic proportions. Not just me, everyone knows it, but it is very difficult to admit you got it wrong. That is normal.

Thrugelmir

melanzana wrote: »

But Trump will be there, and he will dictate the terms, just like China.

Love him or hate him. You have to say that Trump has identified some serious imbalances in global trade. Looking after the US is obviously his top priority. When the one party Chinese state appear to be relentlessly imposing their own agenda. The Geman economy with it's dependence on manufacturing could well be in the firing line as time passes.

melanzana

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Love him or hate him. You have to say that Trump has identified some serious imbalances in global trade. Looking after the US is obviously his top priority. When the one party Chinese state appear to be relentlessly imposing their own agenda. The Geman economy with it's dependence on manufacturing could well be in the firing line as time passes.

The problem is if UK crashes out they will have zero influence in trade deals anymore. The survival of the fittest and all that.

Thrugelmir

melanzana wrote: »

The problem is if UK crashes out they will have zero influence in trade deals anymore. The survival of the fittest and all that.

We are still a major economy in terms of spend. Trade deals are 2 way affairs. Other countries will wish to sell us goods and services. The EU will wish to have a trade deal.

melanzana

Yes I agree that both the UK and the EU will want a trade deal, but realistically the rest of the world can survive without us. Reality really.

Thrugelmir

melanzana wrote: »

Yes I agree that both the UK and the EU will want a trade deal, but realistically the rest of the world can survive without us. Reality really.

This is reality. Everone has their own agenda.

Italy Embraces China, and Europe’s Elites Have Only Themselves to Blame

Last month, the European Commission declared China “a systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance.” Shortly thereafter, the government of Italy formally signed on to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The deal includes commitments to open Italy’s ports to Chinese investment, partnerships between Chinese and Italian banks, and contracts for Italian companies.

Italy’s neighbors have treated its endorsement of the BRI as an affront to European security. Günther Oettinger, the European Union’s top budget official, suggested giving the EU the power to block Chinese investments to preserve Europe’s “autonomy and sovereignty,” even if that meant overriding national governments. Heiko Maas, Germany’s foreign minister, warned Italy that “countries that believe they can do clever business with the Chinese will wonder when they suddenly wake up in dependency.” Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister, suggested the Italians were “naive,” while French President Emmanuel Macron chastised them for reaching a deal with China without having consulted him first.

While there are good reasons to be cautious about Chinese investment, Europe’s elites have no moral authority to criticize Italy’s move. Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands are all members of China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Central and Eastern European countries have been recipients of Chinese capital for years as part of the 16+1 framework, as have Greece and Portugal under their own separate deals. Luxembourg signed up to the BRI just a week after Italy did and has also managed to avoid condemnation.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/europes-elites-have-only-themselves-to-blame-for-italys-embrace-of-china-51554481025

melanzana

Not sure what to read into this monologue from Theresa May, what do you all think?

https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1114891046025084931

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

What direct benefits are you referring too?

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/01/mapped-where-in-the-uk-receives-most-eu-funding-and-how-does-thi/

Between 2014 and 2020, both Cornwall and West Wales will receive over €1,000 (£800) per person from the EU Structural and Investment Fund - similar to that received by Romania and Bulgaria.

The Scottish Highlands, East Wales and Tees Valley will all receive over €300 per person.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Labour's historic track record in managing the economy is appalling.

I guess it depends on what you define as "the economy". The main difference between the two is explained by Stuart Lee https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at_zUPnnx3Q

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Shame that Nu Labour didn't evolve from it's early status to take the middle ground. Instead clung onto ideals that are hopelessly outdated in this modern world.

New Labour was basically Thatcherism with a paint job, it made them look like the conservatives but they didn't have the sleaze problem that the conservatives had. The 90's was awesome, we'd just joined the EU and money was everywhere and music was great. Noel's house party, the spice girls and oasis made us all overlook the problems in New Labour.

It would be great to have a middle ground party that was electable now that labour and conservatives are slowly distancing themselves from the middle. I personally voted conservatives all through the 90's (never liked Tony Blair) up until the last election when Theresa May killed the dream of a middle ground party that wasn't spend happy.

I think Labour are closer to the middle ground now, even with Corbyn in charge, it will be easier to fix their spending than the conservatives problems.

melanzana wrote: »

Not sure what to read into this monologue from Theresa May, what do you all think?

I didn't bother to listen to what Theresa "U-Turn" May said. She spent too long pandering to leave voters, that she lost the support of remain voters. Now she's losing the support of leave voters because the conservative party is supposed to protect the economy and all versions of brexit lead to a worsening of the uk economy.

The WA is just the first step down the road of BRINO. It sounds like a waste of time, they'd be better off killing brexit and educating the voters rather than patronising them (which is all Farage, Mogg & Johnson have been doing).