What steps will gov take if 35%+ HPC?

lisyloo

phillw wrote: »

While they are open to an extension, they do want to know what the extension is to be used for.

I suspect we'll get a one time good faith extension, but if TM keeps negotiating in bad faith then I wouldn't expect another.

I agree with all of that, but it doesn’t mean we’ll end up with a no deal brexit.

AG47

phillw wrote: »

While they are open to an extension, they do want to know what the extension is to be used for.

I suspect we'll get a one time good faith extension, but if TM keeps negotiating in bad faith then I wouldn't expect another.

Absolutely right, at the end of this next extension which will be the last one, there will still be no agreement and it will end up no deal anyway.

Would have been far better to have had no deal on 29 March.

All this uncertainty will just make the property crash take longer and crash lower.

AG47

The extension/s are now just drawing out the longer house price crash over a greater time period.

Herzlos

I'm not sure it's a crash, yet. I think a lot of people either brought a purchase forward or are holding off to see what happens, and once we leave brexit purgatory things will pick up pretty quickly.

westernpromise

AG47 wrote: »

The extension/s are now just drawing out the longer house price crash over a greater time period.

You keep telling yourself that. 50% off by Christmas, etc.

AG47

Herzlos wrote: »

I'm not sure it's a crash, yet. I think a lot of people either brought a purchase forward or are holding off to see what happens, and once we leave brexit purgatory things will pick up pretty quickly.

If we ever leave the uncertainty purgatory

It seems to be getting extenand extension after extended

All going to be bed for property

lisyloo

Not really.
Some of us have secure jobs or alternatively situations where they must proceed (like divorce or going into a nursing home), so have certainty on an individual basis.
A number of people ave just found out their cladding is going to be paid for so that’s some certainty for those individuals.

I think it’s pretty clear we’re going to get a soft brexit so many may have breathed a sigh of relief.

It’s not affecting the decisions of anyone I know who are just gettting on with buying/selling.

Personally I feel a great deal less uncertain about a cliff edge and about a no deal, so that’s all very positive. I guess it depends partly on whether you’re a glass half full or half empty person.

My glass isn’t big enough and you seem to be one of those people who didn’t even get a glass ��

AG47

The uncertainty has been extended Nd extended that’s all I’m saying.

Nobody knows wht will happen, and ll those who act as if they know are full of doggy doo doo

Crashy_Time

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/let-the-bloodbath-begin-house-prices-in-sydney-and-melbourne-could-halve-in-worst-crash-since-1890s/news-story/5918ea13042d5f819cb13c77629f060a

westernpromise

The main factor stopping people trading houses in London and the South-East is probably SDLT.

If I wanted to swap my house for one of similar value but slightly further out of town, so as to gain more space, it would cost me £125,000 in stamp duty.

That sum is:

• about four years of principal payments off my mortgage (so to pay it would set me back that long in paying the mortgage off)
• about what I reckon I could live on for three years or so in retirement (so to pay it would postpone my retirement by that long; three more years commuting on the Northern Line in my late 60s)
• five times what I paid for my first house
• six times what my parents paid for their much bigger house
• more than the likely refurbishment cost of anywhere I bought

Everyone I talk to cites a similar list as the reason why they won't consider buying.

London house prices are always taken by governments and envious rentyboys as proxy evidence for high disposable income. Hence they think they can demand £125,000 of transaction cost of people just to move house and those being fleeced won't notice because it's not much compared to the price of the house.

The fact is that it these house prices are the consequences of inflation. Sellers need to hold on to the proceeds of inflation if they are to buy. Take away £125,000 of it and they can't afford to buy. It's notably acute in sideways move instances like mine. SDLT take falls accordingly.

I hope someone intelligent in government is looking at the effects of SDLT on transaction levels and mobility, and drawing the correct inferences from this for the consequences of any attempt to impose CGT on home sales. It's not a "gain" at all, it's inflation, and taxing inflation stops people moving house.

Unfortunately, the idea of there being "someone intelligent in government" is so totally far-fetched, now or in the future, that I doubt it.