What steps will gov take if 35%+ HPC?

AG47

MobileSaver wrote: »

No not fake news but based on actual facts, something your posts are decidedly lacking in....

The average UK SVR is currently 3.87% and lenders check affordability by assuming rates will worst case increase by up to 3.25% above this; meaning affordability tests are based on 7.12%. When was the last time rates were above this?

Add in to this that today many people could fix at 2.49% for 10 years and your dreams of mass repossessions are revealed as nothing more than complete and utter fantasy. :cool:

You are ignoring the facts.

The HTB interest free periods are coming to an end for a lot of struggling mortgages

51mm5

AG47 wrote: »

You are ignoring the facts.

The HTB interest free periods are coming to an end for a lot of struggling mortgages

Send us a link or source of these "facts".

Ideally it should have the following - how many interest free period HTB's are coming to an end and how many are struggling?

i know you prefer fantasy wish lists over facts so sorry about this.

AnotherJoe

Why would this particular one of mark carneys [STRIKE]predictions[/STRIKE] scaremongering come true any more than any of his other failed pronouncements?

lisyloo

AG47 wrote: »

You are ignoring the facts.

The HTB interest free periods are coming to an end for a lot of struggling mortgages

There are a some comng to their end for sure.
There are always people who make bad decisions even in boom times.

Show us some evidence that it’s a “lot” and significant to the market/house prices, rather than just a few losers.

Sadly there are always losers even when times are good either as a result of unlucky cars, bad decisions or both.

AG47

This was back in 2016 and things have gotten a lot worse since then

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/help-to-buy-i-did-the-maths-and-chose-not-to-use-it/

Not to mention the fallout from the brexit debacle

MobileSaver

AG47 wrote: »

You are ignoring the facts. ... The HTB interest free periods

No, you are ignoring the facts; Help To Buy has accounted for less than 3% of all house purchases since it was introduced in 2013.

So even if every single HTB interest free period had ended and become a problem (which obviously it hasn't and won't) that would still mean that more than 97% of house purchases are totally unaffected.

This is the problem with your end of the world, conspiracy theory, glass half empty take on life; you see something that is trivially negative and then extrapolate it out of all proportion to the point of "the end is nigh."

51mm5

AG47 wrote: »

This was back in 2016 and things have gotten a lot worse since then

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/help-to-buy-i-did-the-maths-and-chose-not-to-use-it/

Not to mention the fallout from the brexit debacle

That does not support what you said at all. It just looks at the pitfalls of HTB if house prices rose sharply. Quote me the bit that supports what you said.

MobileSaver

AG47 wrote: »

This was back in 2016 and things have gotten a lot worse since then https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/help-to-buy-i-did-the-maths-and-chose-not-to-use-it/

So out of something like 7 million property transactions since HTB was introduced you have found an article on one person who thought it was a bad idea?!?! :rotfl:

You are the gift that keeps on giving and proves my previous point entirely on how your "end of the world" mind works.

Sanctioned_Parts_List

OK, so between 1st April 2013 and 30th June 2018 only just shy of 184,000 homes were bought using HTB home equity loans. The first of those are already out of their interest-free period. Roughly 1.3 million houses were sold in 2018.

If every single HTB equity loan house got sold in distress in the same year - 14% of one year's market, it might make for a temporary dip. Briefly. If you were looking at the right moment.

Still, it's more fun to make tinfoil hats than to talk about Brexit...

chucknorris

AG47 wrote: »

The issue is interest rates going back to near more normal levels at the same time the interest free period is up on all those who bought using help to bubble 1&2, all at the same time as brexit uncertainty fallout.

Mortgage defaults are going to go through the roof, repossession numbers are going to be a real problem over the next few years.

If house prices fell 35%, do you really expect that interest rates would return to near 'normal' levels?