What steps will gov take if 35%+ HPC?

phillw

lisyloo wrote: »

London does not operate in isolation.

There is no direct correlation between house prices in London and elsewhere because it's down to local demand, some areas have even increased.

Looking at house prices in London when you're not looking to buy in London seems like a waste of time. He picked London as it's the most extreme, which makes his point sound better.

AG47

phillw wrote: »

Are you trying to buy in London?
Do you have close but not quite enough borrowing power to buy in London?

Unless you answer yes to both of those, then it makes no difference to you.

I'm generation rent, I will never be able to afford to buy in London even at the bottom of the next bust, so yes it makes no difference to me

phillw

AG47 wrote: »

I'm generation rent, I will never be able to afford to buy in London even at the bottom of the next bust, so yes it makes no difference to me

Just figure out how to make a load of money, some people manage it. That should be your focus, not trying to induce a shift in the property market.

AG47

phillw wrote: »

Just figure out how to make a load of money, some people manage it. That should be your focus, not trying to induce a shift in the property market.

This thread is about what steps the gov will take in the coming hpc.

We can see the difference between HTB 1 and the increase of percentage interest free loan in HTB 2.

What is HTB 3 going to be? My guess is 50% interest free loan for several years even available to low income poor credit households.

lisyloo

phillw wrote: »

There is no direct correlation between house prices in London and elsewhere because it's down to local demand, some areas have even increased.

Looking at house prices in London when you're not looking to buy in London seems like a waste of time. He picked London as it's the most extreme, which makes his point sound better.

The houses on my street in the Home Counties tend to be bought by people moving out of London so I’d say there is a correlation for us and I agree that correlation can be up for us (rather nice Home Counties properties) when London is down which might tip some people’s decision to get out of London.

I agree London is currently performing differently I.e.london down, everywhere else up.

I don’t think its making him sound better.
Sounds all like wishful thinking from someone who missed the boat quite badly and didn’t (as I’m sometimes told) put the equivalent by.

snowqueen555

What exactly can the government do, if house prices crash that high it would be a result of a wider economic disaster. House prices crashing on it's own in a vacuum may not be a big deal, many people will be in negative equity.

However such a crash would affect the wider economy and cause a deep recession, a lot of people have used their houses as equity on various forms of borrowing, and a lot of people are overstretched as it is on mortgage payments.

Sanctioned_Parts_List

As I vaguely recall, the drop in house prices between Q4 1988 and Q3 1993 was roughly 35%. Total decline to 1996 about 40%. I don't recall the government doing anything specifically to support house prices, nor were they overly concerned. Once the recession in 1992/3? (I forget) was over with, the government had other priorities.

All that happened was that people who bought at the top of the market maybe found themselves with reduced or negative equity, which caused them some headaches when it came to refinancing, and maybe delayed any decisions to move house again for another decade or so.

Actually, a quick look at UK house prices over the last 50 or so years suggests that house price drops of 20% or so are not so unusual, so where's the problem?

The-Joker

Its looking more and more likely no deal hard Brexit this Friday

which means at least 35% house price crash over the next decade

lisyloo

The-Joker wrote: »

Its looking more and more likely no deal hard Brexit this Friday

Why TM is asking for an extension.
Donald tusk put forward an idea for a flextension.
We (parliament) don’t want it and the EU don’t want and are clearly open to extending.

So why do you think there will be a no deal?

I’m confident there won’t be but interested to hear your justification.

phillw

lisyloo wrote: »

We (parliament) don’t want it and the EU don’t want and are clearly open to extending.

While they are open to an extension, they do want to know what the extension is to be used for.

I suspect we'll get a one time good faith extension, but if TM keeps negotiating in bad faith then I wouldn't expect another.