30% fall in property if no deal brexit

MobileSaver

DannyGold wrote: »

Let’s hope the majority of people won’t be miserable then, because property prices are falling

The majority of people won't be miserable because they know they are paying off their own mortgage rather than their landlord's mortgage... :beer:

DannyGold

They will never come to any arrangement or agreements

It’s going to be no deal and then the property crash

Sailtheworld

DannyGold wrote: »

They will never come to any arrangement or agreements

It’s going to be no deal and then the property crash

The trouble with the HPC analysis is that they use the approach of..

"house prices will crash because [insert latest news headline here]"

There's no real analysis behind it. They've lurched from headline to headline and partied when they heard about MMR, imminent interest rate rises, lack of wage growth, EU recession(s), UK recession(s), gas supplies from Russia being blocked, the end of FFL, war in the Ukraine, Brexit referendum, hard brexit, no-deal brexit, derivatives, Deutsche Bank et al.

...and while they were partying because 'it's definitely on this time' and 'getting the popcorn in' prices kept on rising.

Every month they had to call a new peak because every month sold data came out to demonstrate they were wrong the previous month.

Prices will fall but I wouldn't rely on their judgement or anyone who has three Canadian Maples buried in the garden and thinks he'll be able to buy a house with them one day.

phillw

Sailtheworld wrote: »

Prices will fall but I wouldn't rely on their judgement or anyone who has three Canadian Maples buried in the garden and thinks he'll be able to buy a house with them one day.

Right, if everyday you predict it will rain then eventually you will be correct. House prices have tended to go through a cycle, knowing this doesn't help you. Knowing WHEN helps you.

They don't know when.

DannyGold

phillw wrote: »

Right, if everyday you predict it will rain then eventually you will be correct. House prices have tended to go through a cycle, knowing this doesn't help you. Knowing WHEN helps you.

They don't know when.

The perma prop bulls dont agree

But for everybody else who actually has a few brain cells then yet, we’ll know that there will be another fall in property but we don’t know when or where the bottom will be

lisyloo

DannyGold wrote: »

The perma prop bulls dont agree

But for everybody else who actually has a few brain cells then yet, we’ll know that there will be another fall in property but we don’t know when or where the bottom will be

There are no perma prop bulls.
If you believe there are then name them.

Pretty much everyone agrees with your last statement, some of us choose to buy property and get on with our lives although I have to say for most of us brexit and climate change are priorities.
Most of us who’ve bought and are living in nicer accommodation than we would be on rented are not obsessed with property movements. We carry on living in our houses and pay the mortgage in the knowledge that for the majority of the time we are building equity.

DannyGold

If everybody does indeed believe that there will be another downturn in property sometime in the future then it is true there are no more perma prop bulls left.

But there are still plenty of people who disagree with the HPC brigade which by definition means they are a perma prop bull.

From what I can see they haven’t all gone yet, there are still perma prop bulls left here even if they don’t admit it

Sailtheworld

DannyGold wrote: »

If everybody does indeed believe that there will be another downturn in property sometime in the future then it is true there are no more perma prop bulls left.

You got there in the end - well done.

A property downturn in the future is (just about) a certainty. Knowing this has no value. You need to know when.

MaxiRobriguez

Sailtheworld wrote: »

You got there in the end - well done.

A property downturn in the future is (just about) a certainty. Knowing this has no value. You need to know when.

Knowing when is hardly much use either. If you're trading up then it might be beneficial but if house prices are declining then the probability is that lending has tightened or interest rates are up.

There's only a very small window where on the ball, flexible people (who perhaps have paid a premium to be in such a position to start with) can benefit.

For everyone else, the guidance should be to not overpay in the first place, remortgage sensibly and don't overstretch.

Sailtheworld

MaxiRobriguez wrote: »

Knowing when is hardly much use either. If you're trading up then it might be beneficial but if house prices are declining then the probability is that lending has tightened or interest rates are up.

You must be kidding. You know this information and all you're going to do with it is try and get a slightly bigger house? Not thinking big enough.

MaxiRobriguez wrote: »

There's only a very small window where on the ball, flexible people (who perhaps have paid a premium to be in such a position to start with) can benefit.

For everyone else, the guidance should be to not overpay in the first place, remortgage sensibly and don't overstretch.

It's expensive to short house prices ongoing and it's expensive (and slow) to buy and sell houses so if you're using the medium of a house to short / long houses then, as you say, there's little to gain.