30% fall in property if no deal brexit

Herzlos

Green_Bear wrote: »

If you sold UK property in 2006 and bought gold - you'd be laughing.

Even after factoring in 13 years of renting?

phillw

Herzlos wrote: »

Even after factoring in 13 years of renting?

I think he was referring to your flat you keep empty in london for when wimbledon is on.

Green_Bear

Herzlos wrote: »

Even after factoring in 13 years of renting?

No. I didn't factor in rental costs. I meant purely in price terms.
For example selling a second property and buying gold with the money from the sale.

Herzlos

Green_Bear wrote: »

No. I didn't factor in rental costs. I meant purely in price terms.
For example selling a second property and buying gold with the money from the sale.

And with that second property, you're again talking about purely a 2nd home and not renting it out - because again the rental income over those 13 years would presumably make it the better option.


So you're saying that you could have made some money selling a house and buying gold, IF you weren't living there anyway and weren't renting it out? Or IF you could sell it and live somewhere else for free?


So the people who could potentially have taken advantage of it would be those well enough off to not bother?


Do you pay some kind of annual maintenance costs on the gold stock? Presumably we're not talking about £160,000 worth of bars under the mattress, but either in a vault or in a managed fund or some description?

The-Joker

Green_Bear wrote: »

No. I didn't factor in rental costs. I meant purely in price terms.
For example selling a second property and buying gold with the money from the sale.

Yes if you time it near the top of the property bubble and near the bottom of the gold bear market

They are usually inverse related

Gold and silver bottom at the top of property bubbles and property usually bottoms at the top of precious metal bubbles

Sailtheworld

The-Joker wrote: »

Gold and silver bottom at the top of property bubbles and property usually bottoms at the top of precious metal bubbles

Yeah usually, give or take 20 years.

triathlon

RealElement47 wrote: »

I personall haven't got any gold.

Silver is now more rare in available supplies and more needed than gold.

And silver is going up fast than gold in this new bull market.

The gold to silver ratio is now falling from 93 down to 83 silver parts valued for one part gold.

So you keep telling us over and over and over again, you do realise this is a property forum?

The-Joker

Sailtheworld wrote: »

Yeah usually, give or take 20 years.

It’s been about 40 years this time around

The late 1970s was silver at $50 and gold $850

It took about 500 ounces of silver to buy an average house

Now it takes tens of thousands of ounces

Sailtheworld

The-Joker wrote: »

It’s been about 40 years this time around

The late 1970s was silver at $50 and gold $850

It took about 500 ounces of silver to buy an average house

Now it takes tens of thousands of ounces

If there's a cyclical relationship between silver and UK house prices and if that cycle is 40 years and reliable (rather than +/- another 20 years) then there's some money to be made.

The issue is that there isn't really a cause effect relationship. Gold / UK house prices are unrelated - there might be a loose correlation but that's only because house prices and silver/ gold are proxies for what's happening in the wider economy. Your whole theory is based on past evidence of less than one complete cycle.

Even if there is a cycle of 40 years that's quite difficult to profit from especially when you add some confidence levels. You only need the crash to be delayed by 20 years 'this time' and you might well never see it.

Then there's the assumption that house prices will crash? Why not deflate over 20 years (there's some evidence this is happening).

You might also need to consider whether, rather than houses being artificially expensive now, they were artificially cheap in the late '70s and the investment of the century.

I wouldn't give up the day job just yet.

The-Joker

Sailtheworld wrote: »

If there's a cyclical relationship between silver and UK house prices and if that cycle is 40 years and reliable (rather than +/- another 20 years) then there's some money to be made.

The issue is that there isn't really a cause effect relationship. Gold / UK house prices are unrelated - there might be a loose correlation but that's only because house prices and silver/ gold are proxies for what's happening in the wider economy. Your whole theory is based on past evidence of less than one complete cycle.

Even if there is a cycle of 40 years that's quite difficult to profit from especially when you add some confidence levels. You only need the crash to be delayed by 20 years 'this time' and you might well never see it.

Then there's the assumption that house prices will crash? Why not deflate over 20 years (there's some evidence this is happening).

You might also need to consider whether, rather than houses being artificially expensive now, they were artificially cheap in the late '70s and the investment of the century.

I wouldn't give up the day job just yet.

Yes the silver to house price ratio is very interesting

Several hundred ounces of silver were valued the same as an average property when I was a baby, today I’m 40 and now tens of thousand of ounces of silver are valued the same as the same average property

Property has gone up way more than anything else, and some things have become extremely undervalued