30% fall in property if no deal brexit

DannyGold

Hinge have changed a lot since Mark Carney predicted only 30% HPC if no deal,

What are the latest predictions on percentage HPC when no deal happens on the 31st?

chucknorris

DannyGold wrote: »

Hinge have changed a lot since Mark Carney predicted only 30% HPC if no deal,

What are the latest predictions on percentage HPC when no deal happens on the 31st?

I don't think 'no deal' will happen, but I would love it to, and property prices and British Land shares crash badly, and the ftse 100 surges. But I just don't think that I could be that lucky, I'm fine if it doesn't happen, but that would be my dream scenario.

Thrugelmir

parking_question_chap wrote: »

Unfortunatley I dont think there have not been significant reforms to stop the reckless behavour from the banking system that was a big factor in the lead up to 2008.

Reform has been slow and measured. Unwinding the past will take decades. No quick fixes.

BobQ

Surely the real issue is not whether house prices fall but whether leaving the EU leads to recession?

buglawton

chucknorris wrote: »

I don't think 'no deal' will happen, but I would love it to, and property prices and British Land shares crash badly, and the ftse 100 surges. But I just don't think that I could be that lucky, I'm fine if it doesn't happen, but that would be my dream scenario.

What normally happens when property prices and the £ dip sharply is that rich foreign investors snap up residential city properties thus driving locals even further out of the market. These investors often hold their properties empty. They're also able to avoid the stamp duty penalty by buying in batches like Jeremy Hunt did.

The price effect then ripples out to the suburbs as locals exit city centres.

Foreign investors nowadays look further afield, they're all over Manchester and Bath now.

A real price crash would need a Corbyn type clampdown on property investment. (Which would bring all new residential construction to a halt). Corbyn comes with a major stock market fall and I can imagine even foreign exchange controls.

Can't have it all, can we?

steampowered

buglawton wrote: »

A real price crash would need a Corbyn type clampdown on property investment. (Which would bring all new residential construction to a halt). Corbyn comes with a major stock market fall and I can imagine even foreign exchange controls.

Citi and Goldman Sachs are taking the view that a no deal Brexit would be far more damaging than a Corbyn government in their recent investment assessments, which does imply that the stock market will go up if Corbyn is elected.

Also note that the Tories have already tanked the pound by about 30% of the value it had Labour, suggesting that a Corbyn government would be pretty good for the pound as well.

DannyGold

No deal is looking more likely than ever now, the question is how long before property prices hit bottom

DannyGold

buglawton wrote: »

What normally happens when property prices and the £ dip sharply is that rich foreign investors snap up residential city properties thus driving locals even further out of the market. These investors often hold their properties empty. They're also able to avoid the stamp duty penalty by buying in batches like Jeremy Hunt did.

The price effect then ripples out to the suburbs as locals exit city centres.

Foreign investors nowadays look further afield, they're all over Manchester and Bath now.

A real price crash would need a Corbyn type clampdown on property investment. (Which would bring all new residential construction to a halt). Corbyn comes with a major stock market fall and I can imagine even foreign exchange controls.

Can't have it all, can we?

The mere proposal of right to buy private rental has scared forieaway from uk property rental markets

chucknorris

buglawton wrote: »

What normally happens when property prices and the £ dip sharply is that rich foreign investors snap up residential city properties thus driving locals even further out of the market. These investors often hold their properties empty. They're also able to avoid the stamp duty penalty by buying in batches like Jeremy Hunt did.

The price effect then ripples out to the suburbs as locals exit city centres.

Foreign investors nowadays look further afield, they're all over Manchester and Bath now.

A real price crash would need a Corbyn type clampdown on property investment. (Which would bring all new residential construction to a halt). Corbyn comes with a major stock market fall and I can imagine even foreign exchange controls.

Can't have it all, can we?

I think that you have misunderstood my post, I'm not concerned about residential prices, I was referring to the property market falling generally, which crashes the 'British Land' share price (which is a commercial property REIT that I would like to invest in, if the yield was quite high). But as I also said, I do not think that a no deal is actually going to happen.

I also think that you are over estimating the possibility of a Labour Gov. The betfair price has been steadily rising against Labour in the last few weeks, in the 'Most seats' market they are currently 5.3 and the Tory party is only 1.35!

I have no idea what you mean by your 'can't have it all' comment, please explain?

BobQ

buglawton wrote: »

What normally happens when property prices and the £ dip sharply is that rich foreign investors snap up residential city properties thus driving locals even further out of the market. These investors often hold their properties empty. They're also able to avoid the stamp duty penalty by buying in batches like Jeremy Hunt did.

I do not see huge inward investment into Wigan, Grimsby or Devizes This London centric view of life is quite boring to most of the country.

A real price crash would need a Corbyn type clampdown on property investment.

You mean by an intensive house building programme that increases supply?

(Which would bring all new residential construction to a halt).

Evidence?

Corbyn comes with a major stock market fall and I can imagine even foreign exchange controls.

As would any Government spending the fruits of their money tree BoJo's recent policy and spending could have the same effect.