30% fall in property if no deal brexit

Herzlos

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Yes, but in the real world people sometimes just have to sell for whatever reason, and a BTL sell off could also happen, many people will do anything to keep their main residence, they won`t strive so hard to keep an empty BTL that is a money pit. The idea of owners "sitting it out" is a quaint idea based on a misunderstanding of supply and demand, but it isn`t really practical for the whole housing market in the real world.

Only if you've got a skewed notion of supply and demand.


I demand a bigger house, but if the price of this drops to the point I don't have a decent deposit, I'll sit it out. Similarly if my mortgage went up I'd cut costs rather than downsize (because it'll cost something like £5k to move), including dropping my overpayment, sky tv, fancy phone packages etc.


The only people who can reasonably justify downsizing are the older owners who have a lot more equity. I know a few people who are in their 60's in houses far bigger than they need. Economic pressure may make them sell and move down, maybe pocketing £100k in the process, but if the house prices drop they'll just stay where they are.


The only people who need to sell when prices are low are:
People who've lost jobs and are nowhere near affordablity, who'll need to get rid of the mortgage and move in with someone else or drastically downsize.
Divorces, where the house needs to be sold and the profit split so people can move on.
Inheritance, where the owner of the house has died and the estate needs to be dealt with.


Even then, in most of those cases, it may still make sense to just wait on the market correcting.
People need to live somewhere, and their current house is usually manageable. Generations ago we'd be living with far more people in far less space.

AG47

Crashy_Time wrote: »

This one has knocked 50k off already, will it sell, who knows? In reality people are panicking and reducing prices by as much as 75k over a few months, and that is before Brexit has even happened!

This will take years for the fallout dust to settle

Crashy_Time

Herzlos wrote: »

Are they, or did they just go to an estate agent who overvalued the property by 75k?

Too many examples now for it to just be stupid EA`s, people know the game is up for bubble prices IMO.

Crashy_Time

Herzlos wrote: »

Only if you've got a skewed notion of supply and demand.


I demand a bigger house, but if the price of this drops to the point I don't have a decent deposit, I'll sit it out. Similarly if my mortgage went up I'd cut costs rather than downsize (because it'll cost something like £5k to move), including dropping my overpayment, sky tv, fancy phone packages etc.


The only people who can reasonably justify downsizing are the older owners who have a lot more equity. I know a few people who are in their 60's in houses far bigger than they need. Economic pressure may make them sell and move down, maybe pocketing £100k in the process, but if the house prices drop they'll just stay where they are.


The only people who need to sell when prices are low are:
People who've lost jobs and are nowhere near affordablity, who'll need to get rid of the mortgage and move in with someone else or drastically downsize.
Divorces, where the house needs to be sold and the profit split so people can move on.
Inheritance, where the owner of the house has died and the estate needs to be dealt with.


Even then, in most of those cases, it may still make sense to just wait on the market correcting.
People need to live somewhere, and their current house is usually manageable. Generations ago we'd be living with far more people in far less space.

If someone in your street knocks 75k off a similar house to yours, could be a distressed BTL landlord for example, that is your new house price, doesn`t matter how long you are prepared to wait it out, the market is made by actual sales not people "waiting it out".

Sailtheworld

Crashy_Time wrote: »

This one has knocked 50k off already, will it sell, who knows? In reality people are panicking and reducing prices by as much as 75k over a few months, and that is before Brexit has even happened!

Reducing the price of a house before a sale is normal. Estate agents 'bid up' to get the listing and if a vendor has the time and inclination they may as well see if there's a buyer attracted to their kite flying.

Crashaholics see price reductions and, despite this being a normal state of affairs, use a constant to prove that selling prices are falling. This has been going on for ever which explains why, in the face of this 'evidence', the Crashaholics looked on in bemusement as prices kept on rising.

Rather than accept they were wrong they built a silly narrative as to how the figures were manipulated by the media, government, vested interests and so on.

Maybe this time 'it's on' but finding a house with £50k off isn't evidence of much at all.

Crashy_Time

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Too many examples now for it to just be stupid EA`s, people know the game is up for bubble prices IMO.

This 75k drop is a good example of how all the other kite flyers in a similar street are now 75 - 100k "poorer", don`t know what is going on with the white paint but I bet the neighbours just love this guy!

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-69106585.html

Crashy_Time

Sailtheworld wrote: »

Reducing the price of a house before a sale is normal. Estate agents 'bid up' to get the listing and if a vendor has the time and inclination they may as well see if there's a buyer attracted to their kite flying.

Crashaholics see price reductions and, despite this being a normal state of affairs, use a constant to prove that selling prices are falling. This has been going on for ever which explains why, in the face of this 'evidence', the Crashaholics looked on in bemusement as prices kept on rising.

Rather than accept they were wrong they built a silly narrative as to how the figures were manipulated by the media, government, vested interests and so on.

Maybe this time 'it's on' but finding a house with £50k off isn't evidence of much at all.

Would you take 100k off as evidence of anything?

MaxiRobriguez

Whilst I'm not convinced a crash is imminent, my anecdotal evidence would suggest I'm seeing more "reduced today" listings on rightmove over the past 6-12 months than I can ever remember.

It's probably that almost all houses bidded-up by estate agents get returned to fair value rather than a crash, but it would seem in my little enclave that buyers are now more stringent about what they're willing to part with.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time wrote: »

This 75k drop is a good example of how all the other kite flyers in a similar street are now 75 - 100k "poorer"

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-69106585.html

Good story bro except that that house appears to have sold for £357,500 eighteen months ago so in fact using your "expert analysis and methodology" all his neighbours must now be £67,500 "richer!" :rotfl:

Sailtheworld

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Would you take 100k off as evidence of anything?

As I'm not currently buying or selling it doesn't affect me that individuals reduce prices before making a sale - I'm content to assess whether prices are rising or falling based on what they've actually sold for.

Crashy_Time wrote: »

This 75k drop is a good example of how all the other kite flyers in a similar street are now 75 - 100k "poorer", don`t know what is going on with the white paint but I bet the neighbours just love this guy!

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-69106585.html

Obviously a try-on because they bought at £357k last year, spent, say, £40k on refurb and then asked for £500k. The precious mug punter didn't appear so now they need to be more realistic.

They paid too much and had dreams of quick riches probably not realising that most of the added value of yesteryear from doing up houses actually came from rising prices rather than work and money.

I could be wrong but who cares? It's an example of one.