30% fall in property if no deal brexit

phillw

AG47 wrote: »

You would e foolish to be buying property in the middle of all this uncertainty

Or if you pass affordability checks now but won't next year, then you would be fooling not to buy now.

It will only be a small percentage that actually makes the wrong guess, but they won't be fools.

MobileSaver

AG47 wrote: »

You would e foolish to be buying property in the middle of all this uncertainty

But you would also be foolish not to be trying to sell property

You can't see the contradiction in your own posts can you? According to you it's foolish not to try to sell but it's foolish to be buying... how can anyone sell if no-one is buying? Your post is just nonsensical.

Ultimately though your reasoning is fundamentally flawed; if prices did inexplicably drop by 30% it would actually be much harder for most people to buy than it is now for a whole raft of reasons.

Not least of which is that that the vast majority of existing property owners would simply decide not to sell until prices recovered; as your fellow deluded HPC-er Crashy Time used to tell us all ad nauseum, when prices last dropped significantly transaction volumes also dropped off a cliff...

AG47

MobileSaver wrote: »

You can't see the contradiction in your own posts can you? According to you it's foolish not to try to sell but it's foolish to be buying... how can anyone sell if no-one is buying? Your post is just nonsensical.

...

Obviously sellers will need to keep undercutting each other:T

AG47

The lowest priced get sold first.

The smart ones are lowering prices compared to the competitors

Those that think they will hold out will find as property crashes they will wish they lowered prices sooner to get the sale.

Or just wait decades for the next uptick in the cycle

Herzlos

AG47 wrote: »

Obviously sellers will need to keep undercutting each other:T

1. You still couldn't afford to buy.
2. If the prices start to drop, people just take property off the market and stay put. They'll upgrade the house instead (extend, decorate). The only ones who'll still sell taking the loss are those with no option.

AG47 wrote: »

You would e foolish to be buying property in the middle of all this uncertainty

On the contrary - this is a great time to buy (if you're planning on staying there for a while). Demand is lowish, and prices will shoot back up if a good brexit deal is got
There is a risk you'll lose money in the very short term, but it'll have recovered within a decade anyway.


As said, if you can afford to buy now, there's a real risk you may not be should this magical 30% crash happen.

lisyloo

AG47 wrote: »

The lowest priced get sold first.

The smart ones are lowering prices compared to the competitors

Those that think they will hold out will find as property crashes they will wish they lowered prices sooner to get the sale.

Or just wait decades for the next uptick in the cycle

You and your like have been proven to be wrong time and time again often at great personal and financial cost.
You don’t know anymore than anyone else what will happen with brexit or property.
There is no guarantee of a no deal or even a brexit at the moment.

History has shown that those who try to speculate can do badly especially if that means doing nothing for many years.
Those who persevere, invest in themselves and get on generally do get on well.

MobileSaver

AG47 wrote: »

The smart ones are lowering prices compared to the competitors

The smart ones just take their property off the market and keep over-paying their mortgage; as each month goes by they get closer and closer to owning their own home outright.

The not so smart ones keep renting and paying off their landlord's mortgage instead of their own...

AG47 wrote: »

Or just wait decades for the next uptick in the cycle

Last time prices recovered in around six or seven years, less in some places and across the board nothing like decades so you are living in absolute fantasy land. :rotfl:

MaxiRobriguez

Brexit itself isn't the driver. Like people have said, if house prices just drop because of a confidence thing then people will simply wait it out before selling.

If Brexit however causes a spike in inflation which sees the BoE react by increasing the base rate, that may precede a drawn out "crash" of some sort, starting with those on trackers/non-fixed mortgages and lasting two years whilst the majority of the remaining fixes expire. If people are getting hit with 4-5% interest rates on houses they overstretched themselves on at half that then there may be a much bigger need for people to sell, and sell quickly.

Herzlos

But even selling quickly due to a mortage rate rise isn't that likely - they are stress tested now and people need to live somewhere. Few people will sell their house at a loss and go on to rent, and there's not that much money to be saved in downsizing by 1 or 2 rooms.
Most likely if mortgages became more expensive is that people would go without everything else to keep the house.

lisyloo

AG47 wrote: »

Obviously sellers will need to keep undercutting each other:T

This isn’t what is happening in reality.
In fact limited supply means buyers are sometimes in bidding wars.
Try the house buying board and check out the issues buyers are having.