30% fall in property if no deal brexit

trickydicky802

Most of those new builds will already be under contract. If the market slows down, builders will stop building for a while. Besides, who cares about how tough it might become for the likes of Persimmon who have skewed the market anyway by abusing government incentives for FTBs to pay for their outrageous bonuses.

https://www.independent.co.uk/money/spend-save/help-to-buy-house-prices-loans-first-time-buyers-savings-a8958056.html

AG47

trickydicky802 wrote: »

Most of those new builds will already be under contract. If the market slows down, builders will stop building for a while. Besides, who cares about how tough it might become for the likes of Persimmon who have skewed the market anyway by abusing government incentives for FTBs to pay for their outrageous bonuses.

https://www.independent.co.uk/money/spend-save/help-to-buy-house-prices-loans-first-time-buyers-savings-a8958056.html

It could get like Spain, with many not finished building projects mothballed.

Then squatters move in and that’s all she wrote

Herzlos

AG47 wrote: »

It could get like Spain, with many not finished building projects mothballed.

Then squatters move in and that’s all she wrote

It might, but it probably won't. The demand for uk house building will be back in a few years after a drop. Up here they finished the ones they started and sold them off, the rest were left as empty plots. Not so easy to squat on bare soil.

Thrugelmir

BikingBud wrote: »

What about all the new builds that are sat there partially built or near completion? Does that mean they don't sell them? I'm sure Persimmon et al will not be happy about their massive, over-inflated cash flow stagnating.

Lots of issues here with new builds , in particular David Wilson Homes. There's a 4 bed exec detached that maybe demolished due to the extent of the defects in build quality.

triathlon

AG47 wrote: »

It could get like Spain, with many not finished building projects mothballed.

Then squatters move in and that’s all she wrote

"It could this" or " It could that", could could could, how many wrong and disastrous failed predictions are your going to make Realelement?
You say I am an over the top obsessive, but I am calling a low rise of no more that 4 or 5% in either direction in the short term and you are calling -30% falls, and have done so for years :rotfl:
Irony or what

AG47

There have been many examples of unfinished property developments just abandoned around the world because the property market crashed.

Squatting on these developments becomes rife.

This can’t happen in the good old UK, right???

Herzlos

It could, but what makes you think it's likely?

AG47

Herzlos wrote: »

It could, but what makes you think it's likely?

The house building bubble going on, right at the top of the property bubble

When they both crash, these half built developments will not be able to be finished.

It’s looking more and more like hard crash out of EU with no deal brexit which will mean at least 30% crash in property to start with and then further declines over the years.

Herzlos

Where are you getting this 30% number from? Do you have anything credible you can point to?


In a property price crash, builders will stop building the stuff that's not been started, a few buildings might be stopped part way though, and a few finished ones will sit unsold. But considering most houses in newbuild estates are sold off-plan we're not going to be seeing entire housing estates sitting empty long term. We'll just see lots of empty fields with planning permission expiring.



We don't have the same issues as, say, Spain or China which have built huge villages/cities and then left them derelict. We build clusters of maybe 100 houses in a kind of stepped order - the first houses are occupied before the last houses are started.

Malthusian

Herzlos wrote: »

Where are you getting this 30% number from?

30% is the fantasy sweet spot.

Less than 30% and it's not good enough a fantasy. I.e. there's no point AG47 fantasising about prices falling by 20% because prices do fall by 20% very rarely, and when they do people like AG47 still can't buy a house*.

Higher than 30% and the fantasy is too implausible.

A 30% house price crash feels like something that could actually happen and could actually be life-changing and solve all his problems.

It's the same reason the most popular lotteries all offer jackpots of a few million. If the jackpot fund is only six figures it's not an attractive enough fantasy. People buy lottery tickets because they want to fantasise about being millionaires.

If the jackpot is a few billion then the chance of winning it is too remote. A lottery in which the host stands up in a shiny dress week after week and says "Oh dear, nobody won again, but next week it could be you" is a lousy one.

The sweet spot for a national lottery with a player base the size of the UK is a jackpot of a few million. Likewise the sweet spot for the free house fantasy is a 30% fall in prices.

*We all know that if prices fell by 30%, AG47 still wouldn't be able to buy a house, even if liquidity remained the same (which it won't). But it feels to him as if he could which is the important thing, this is fantasy we're talking about, reality is irrelevant.