Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Thrugelmir

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Now that parliament is back in action, does anyone have the foggiest clue how they are going to progress this mess?

I’m struggling tbh and usually I get everything spot on.

Build a wall around London to keep the revolting peasants out.

phillw

LHW99 wrote: »

A compromise would have been appropriate at that time, given honesty from all MP's. Now however there seems no compromise possible.

Unfortunately that is because the ERG have been purposefully sabotaging from the shadows. Which means we have to make sure they don't get the result they want.

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

Extraordinary isn’t it that only a few days ago, the opposition declined to call a VONC implying that they had confidence in Boris but now they want him to resign also without a VONC. We'll soon find out if Corbyn has the cojones to call a vote. My money’s on him bottling it.

It's only extraordinary if you don't know, or don't want to admit to knowing, why the VONC would be bad. I'll explain in case you haven't had it explained already.

If Boris resigns then the deputy prime minister takes over while they select a new leader, apart from it paralysing the government somewhat there is no major change..

If they hold a VONC and we end up with a GE then we have no prime minister to negotiate with the EU, nobody to request an extension, we have no MPs to pass any more laws. It's looking like another hung parliament, so all the conservatives would have to do is refuse a coalition & force another GE. The clock will run out and we wouldn't have a functioning government to put any plans into place to work through the problems of a no deal brexit.

Of course in the meantime people will pretend that it's incredible to ask him to resign but not call a VONC, I think they've given up trying to explain it everytime it's mentioned on TV now.

SpiderLegs wrote: »

I’m struggling tbh and usually I get everything spot on.

There are lots of ways out of the mess, one thing that I've noticed during many conversations with both leave and remain voters is that they always see their preferred outcome as the only one that is possible. This is a coping strategy to deal with stress, but it's largely a mistake as you're bound to be wrong and cause yourself more stress. I think even the government are still deluding themselves & that is paralyzing any kind of negotiations with the EU.

One possible outcome is that Boris is going to betray the ERG (he's already alluded to this in an interview) and bring back a deal with (a possibly renamed version of) the backstop. At this point I can expect that a lot of leave voters who have been convinced that the backstop is the worst possible outcome, will then demand a referendum. Along with the remain voters who are demanding a referendum, we might actually get one.

Reaper

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

Extraordinary isn’t it that only a few days ago, the opposition declined to call a VONC implying that they had confidence in Boris but now they want him to resign also without a VONC. We'll soon find out if Corbyn has the cojones to call a vote. My money’s on him bottling it.

It's not a matter of cojones, he would be crazy to do it. What would be fascinating is if Boris called a vote of no confidence on his own government. Would the opposition have the cojones to actually vote FOR Boris to stop it going through??? Would the government actually vote to say they had no confidence in themselves?!

As somebody who studied politics in the distant past I find it all fascinating.

Filo25

SpiderLegs wrote: »

Now that parliament is back in action, does anyone have the foggiest clue how they are going to progress this mess?

I’m struggling tbh and usually I get everything spot on.

A VONC is a possibility if they can agree on anyone to actually lead a Government of National Unity, but that is also problematic, Corbyn can't get the cross-party support and Labour have appeared unwilling to back anyone else.

For now the plan seems to be to get Johnson to have to ask for that extension, I'm not convinced he will do it though

Moby

The way through is for us to see Johnsons deal. He keeps saying he is close to a great deal and then have a People's vote on the deal against remain!

phillw

Filo25 wrote: »

Corbyn can't get the cross-party support and Labour have appeared unwilling to back anyone else.

Politically it's also better for them to get Boris to do it, conservatives know this & it's one of the reasons that is driving them to push for a GE. They know if they lose then at least they don't have to drink from poisoned chalice, if they win then they can do what they want. The problem is it's likely to be a draw.

Moby

Extracts from our PMs speech to the UN last night. Perhaps there is a clue in there about the wonderful deal we are going to get with the EU. How can we possibly fail. I'm sure he has a plan.

1.
“In the future, voice connectivity will be in every room and almost every object: your mattress will monitor your nightmares; your fridge will beep for more cheese.”

2.
“A future Alexa will pretend to take orders. But this Alexa will be watching you, clucking her tongue and stamping her foot.”

3.
“You may keep secrets from your friends, from your parents, your children, your doctor – even your personal trainer – but it takes real effort to conceal your thoughts from Google.”

4.
“AI – what will it mean? Helpful robots washing and caring for an ageing population? Or pink-eyed terminators sent back from the future to cull the human race?”

5.
“What will synthetic biology stand for – restoring our livers and our eyes with miracle regeneration of the tissues, like some fantastic hangover cure? Or will it bring terrifying limbless chickens to our tables?”

6.
“When Prometheus brought fire to mankind. In a tube of fennel, as you may remember, that Zeus punished him by chaining him to a Tartarean crag while his liver was pecked out by an eagle. And every time his liver regrew the eagle came back and pecked it again. And this went on forever – a bit like the experience of Brexit in the UK, if some of our parliamentarians had their way.”

phillw

Moby wrote: »

Extracts from our PMs speech to the UN last night. Perhaps there is a clue in there about the wonderful deal we are going to get with the EU. How can we possibly fail. I'm sure he has a plan.

I thought you were joking, the stress seems to be getting to him.

https://www.theguardian.com/global/video/2019/sep/25/boris-johnson-speaks-at-un-of-limbless-chickens-brexit-and-hangover-cures-video

I guess someone who has something to hide doesn't want his alexa to be gathering evidence against him

phillw

Takedap wrote: »

Particularly if the Government lawyers had advised against it & he went & did it anyway.

I understand that Geofrey Cox said it would be fine. Of course lawyers are just people who have read existing decisions & it could be argued that the supreme court interpreted past events in a novel and new way. However courts have to do that on many occasions.

Their mistake was seeming to believe their own legal argument, it's a backup plan at best.

lvader wrote: »

The PM shouldn't resign because his cabinet were on board with what was doing. The correct thing to do would be for the opposition to call a motion of no confidence.

I understand he didn't inform cabinet.

mayonnaise wrote: »

Wouldn't be surprised if it was all just another Dominic Cummings idea.

The idea for prorogation seems to have come from Nikki da Costa

https://twitter.com/nmdacosta/status/1110929826876215296?lang=en-gb

It was argued that hers was the only evidence submitted by the government and in March she suggested using proroguation to frustrate the roll of parliament, that even though this tweet was before she was taken on by Boris then it's reasonable to assume that the same thought was behind the action. Reading to the bottom of the thread is quite enlightening.

I don't understand why someone who wants to portray themselves as a strategist, would be so poor at leaking their intentions ahead of time.

gfplux

Moe_The_Bartender wrote: »

The only law that he broke was the one that the Supreme Court just made up.

Politicians and those that support them challenging the Judiciary is a long and dark slope into hell.