Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

phillw

buglawton wrote: »

Customs Union = Free Migration between UK and EU.
That's actually an EU red line.

No. The customs union = free flow of goods, single market = free flow of goods, services, capital and workers.

There doesn't seem to be a way that we keep money flowing through London without letting all those foreign people in. Arguably the money flowing through London doesn't always generate the tax income it should, because rich people can afford magic accountants that can disappear a tax bill with ease. But we'll find out just how crippled the country gets soon.

Herzlos wrote: »

I never understood the need for the backstop being unilateral, since if we want out of it we just need to ditch the trade agreement and go to WTO.

The EU doesn't want a hard border, but the WTO and customs union require it to protect it's border. There's literally nothing they can do about it which is why the backstop is such a big deal to them.

I believe the legal advice is that the backstop would be legally binding under international law until both sides agree to remove it. Rees Mogg wants to be able to withdraw from it unilaterally because he doesn't want to negotiate the future relationship in good faith.

The backstop is actually an amazing thing, it will prevent our politicians from being stupid and trying to force a one sided deal with the EU. Which will fail just as badly as Theresa May has.

A lot of UK politicians seem to think the EU is co-dependant on us, like a battered wife & that all we need to do to get our own way is to throw a few punches. The backstop saves us all from that.

Herzlos

The backstop is legally binding, but it'd only come into play if the UK can't find a solution to the border issue. If we sort that, then the backstop is binding but irrelevant. We've been promising to provide a solution since negotiations started, but we always push it back. If we knew what we wanted then the backstop would have never even been conceived.



Mogg doesn't like it because there's no actual solution and thus the backstop becomes a permanent fixture.

andrewf75 wrote: »

The whole madness summed up neatly in one sentence

A tough choice needed to be made between keeping an open border and being able to do independent trade deals. May's biggest failure is dodging that choice and pretending a cake and eat it solution was possible.

Most of the problems do seem to come from May refusing to decide on anything and pushing things off. Presumably she's waiting on a unicorn or distraction but she's going to have to decide on something eventually.

phillw

Herzlos wrote: »

The backstop is legally binding, but it'd only come into play if the UK can't find a solution to the border issue.

Right, but exactly what would come into play and how we would deal with that is up for debate. And it could be refined over time.

But if things go real bad we can pull the whole of the UK into the backstop and start again.

Mogg doesn't like it because he wants closure for his dad being ridiculed by John Major.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/jul/24/john-major-full-gloat-defeating-rebels-maastricht-european-union

That is all this entire exercise in self harm is about.

Honey_Badger

Herzlos wrote: »

The backstop is legally binding, but it'd only come into play if the UK can't find a solution to the border issue. If we sort that, then the backstop is binding but irrelevant. We've been promising to provide a solution since negotiations started, but we always push it back. If we knew what we wanted then the backstop would have never even been conceived.



Mogg doesn't like it because there's no actual solution and thus the backstop becomes a permanent fixture.






Most of the problems do seem to come from May refusing to decide on anything and pushing things off. Presumably she's waiting on a unicorn or distraction but she's going to have to decide on something eventually.

Well a certain Mr Macron has different ideas regarding the use of the backstop.

Emmanuel Macron has said the UK will be trapped in a customs union after Brexit unless Downing Street offers European fishermen full access to British waters during the coming trade negotiations.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/25/eu-leaders-back-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-in-brussels

phillw

Honey_Badger wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/25/eu-leaders-back-theresa-mays-brexit-deal-in-brussels

It's fine, we'll be giving them full access to our waters. Because we want full access to their waters anyway.

andrewf75

Herzlos wrote: »

Presumably she's waiting on a unicorn or distraction but she's going to have to decide on something eventually.

If she is not being decisive now, I can't see that she's ever likely to!

Maybe she is just relying on the fact that if it all goes pear shaped, the gullible British public will blame the EU rather than her. Whether we end up with a customs union or an Irish border after a no-deal, the important thing for her is that people won't blame the Tories... the media are loving the Tusk comment because it is exactly what they need to whip up the anger against the EU.

movilogo

Remainers predicted UK would in deep trouble because of Brexit.

Now Italy and Germany in recession.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/02/07/germany-falls-recession-brussels-slashes-eu-growth-forecasts/

andrewf75

movilogo wrote: »

Remainers predicted UK would in deep trouble because of Brexit.

Now Italy and Germany in recession.

Are these linked in any way?

andrewf75

movilogo wrote: »

Remainers predicted UK would in deep trouble because of Brexit.

Now Italy and Germany in recession.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/02/07/germany-falls-recession-brussels-slashes-eu-growth-forecasts/

Pretty ridiculous to link these two statements.

If Europe has problems, that will mean even deeper trouble for the UK. Chinese growth is slowing, the US is becoming more protectionist...none of that suggests Brexit isn't going to have a big impact on us.

BRB_in_2019

andrewf75 wrote: »

Are these linked in any way?

Do you mean they wouldn't be if it was Britain in recession? Everybody knows that the screeches from the pro-EU faction would be "See what Brexit is doing"!