Brexit the economy and house prices part 7: Brexit Harder

Conina

mayonnaise wrote: »

whose, not who's

You're welcome.

Whoosh!
As was said earlier:

Takedap wrote: »

You're not very good at this sarcasm lark are you?

Mebee ah shuld av uzed maw zeds or summink.

Conina

Takedap wrote: »

You're not very good at this sarcasm lark are you?

Better than some people are from all appearances because both yourself and some earlier posts seem to have missed "who's" - and I know the difference between "their" "there" and "they're" too.
Now should I insert some sort of emoji smiley face or wink so that others like the one that did see the sarcasm but missed it completely or yourself know that forums aren't serious places?

phillw

Tromking wrote: »

Although, considering China has a free trade deal with little Switzerland and the EU doesn't, who is in the more advantageous position at the moment?

The EU. The trade deal they are working on is better than Switzerlands and so will take longer.

We can get a bad trade deal too with china if you're into instant gratification.

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/-glass-half-full--rating-for-swiss-chinese-trade-deal/44427848

Thrugelmir

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

Can a poor remainer get an answer to the very simple question on bargaining power and trade deals?

Will we or will we not get worse deals by going it alone?

Why the fascination with "trade deals"? Upand coming markets are in Asia. There's where manufacturing is heading, and has been for 25 years now. Europe as a whole now generates a greater % through services.

Moby

mayonnaise wrote: »

I wouldn't say funny but it was an interesting watch.
The contrast between EU politicians and civil servants (relentlessly on top of their brief, united, competent) and the collective of bungling nincompoops on our side couldn't be starker.

It's embarrassing how incompetent our side have been. It's a gruelling watch....part two on now!

BikingBud

Takedap wrote: »

I would suggest that part of the reason we continue to punch above our weight is because of the alliances we have with Europe.

What evidence is your contention of "having the scope to do better" based on?

How much of our IPR goes abroad to generate profit elsewhere?

How much of our food is produced in other countries when we can produce much more ourselves?

How any of our goods we consume are produced overseas and imported?

Why do we have this apprehension that only German car marques are good quality?

There are many more where you could query very legitimately why we have found ourselves to be over reliant and not self sufficient.

Depends I suppose whether you drink a glass half full of one of the many UK based craft breweries finest IPAs or a glass half empty of poor tasteless continental lager.

BikingBud

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

I never said it's not worthy (of what?) so please do not twist my words.

You said irrelevant happy to stick with that if you want but how do you think the rest the world deals if only the top 4 have bargaining power?

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

The point is very simple, really, and you totally avoided it: BARGAINING POWER.

The kind of trade deals a country can get depends on its bargaining power. In a world dominated by 3 large blocks, the countries inside the block have more bargaining power and can negotiate better trade deals. It's as simple as that. It may be unfair, but such is life. My personal opinion on whether this is fair or desirable is totally irrelevant, since I don't make the rules and I have no say whatsoever in the negotiations.

If you disagree, please explain.

We have so much innovation and intellectual property

UK tech expanding faster than the rest of the economy

But uncertainty over Brexit stalls the growth

We should have trust in what we do and deal strongly in what we develop

SouthLondonUser wrote: »

I am not deriding the UK, I am simply stating a fact. We may laud the efforts of the 5th largest economy all we want, but that doesn't change the unfortunate truth I pointed out.

Well you're certainly not lauding the positive aspects of many highly skilled and competent personnel who no doubt will get hacked off with staying in a country that does not value their worth and end up leaving.

BikingBud

Moby wrote: »

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/The-economic-consequences-of-Brexit.pdf


''We estimated the economic impact would be a reduction in GDP of 1.9 to 5.5%, [a fiscal hit of up to £36 bn per year]”

Did you read the disclaimer?

Economic modelling is not an exact science, and in order to produce the analysis set out in this report, we have had to make a large number of assumptions, some of them subjective. Moreover, economic models provide at best an imperfect map of the world. For example, our model requires us to transform the legal language of the Withdrawal Agreement into assumptions about percentage changes in non-tariff barriers. This is an inexact art that relies on informed judgment more than scientific measurement. Equally, there is insufficient detail in the Withdrawal Agreement to know exactly how the customs backstop would operate or the extent of future regulatory divergence between the UK and the EU. This introduces additional uncertainty into our assumptions.

So an opinionated SWAG?

phillw

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why the fascination with "trade deals"? Upand coming markets are in Asia. There's where manufacturing is heading, and has been for 25 years now. Europe as a whole now generates a greater % through services.

If trade deals weren't so important then why do all these other countries seem to think they are important?

BikingBud wrote: »

Why do we have this apprehension that only German car marques are good quality?

It's not just german cars, Japanese cars are good quality too. Italians have some nice cars, but Lambourghinis catching fire isn't a sign of quality (although I'd still have one in a heartbeat)

BikingBud wrote: »

Depends I suppose whether you drink a glass half full of one of the many UK based craft breweries finest IPAs or a glass half empty of poor tasteless continental lager.

Careful, your xenophobia is showing. There are plenty of superior european alcoholic drinks and plenty of UK sub par ones.

BikingBud

phillw wrote: »

It's not just german cars, Japanese cars are good quality too. Italians have some nice cars, but Lambourghinis catching fire isn't a sign of quality (although I'd still have one in a heartbeat)

But are they all so much better than UK built cars?

phillw wrote: »

Careful, your xenophobia is showing. There are plenty of superior european alcoholic drinks and plenty of UK sub par ones.

Again that term superior derides the quality of UK products yes of course there are mass-produced sub-quality drinks produced in the UK, things like Coors, Budwieser, Carlsberg etc, all well known British labels:o

International Spirits Challenge Awards Winner 2018

Wineries in Great Britain enjoyed a boom in both domestic and overseas sales last year, but a new report suggests that exports will play a crucial role in the fledgling industry’s future.

Bring it all on:T:T:T