No Santa Rally

itwasntme001

Prism wrote: »

Maybe it will, maybe it won't. Maybe the interest rates will drop next year. Maybe the market has already priced them in and equities will rise as before. Regardless, it will likely have no impact on the long term idea that the stock market will increase gradually upwards. Too many unknown factors to make any real opinion on - so why try.


Having seen my investments going through the dot.com crash and financial crisis I think I can safely say I can cope with an interest rate surprise or two. If I couldn't then I shouldn't be almost 100% equities should I?

I honestly think that trying to make any investment choices based on politics or central banks is almost impossible. I stopped trying to second guess it years ago

I am not saying to make decisions based on a FED statement or policy choice. Just to be aware these things can very well change the outlook for equities in the long run. And that "cheap" may not necessarily mean cheap. Cheap is cheap usually for a reason.

Alexland

itwasntme001 wrote: »

Do not think that there can not be any forces, be it interest rates or trade deals, that could not alter the return profile for equities and therefore your opinion on risk and returns could well be very wrong.

When did I suggest that significant changes would not affect long term performance? My point is the news in recent weeks has been very safely within the range of my (pessimistic) expecations so I am still happy to be buying more fund units at a lower prices.

Alex

Thrugelmir

Prism wrote: »

I certainly recognise how rising rates affect equities in general. Weaker companies struggle with debt. Stronger companies struggle less, but still do worse since their customers have less to spend. Investors shift slightly to bonds due to the better yields. This has happened over and over throughout the years.

If interest rate increases suprised the market next year then sure, there would likely be a big sell off. I'm still not sure why you think I would care? I am investing for my future not next year.

"Strong" companies still resort to financial engineering to massage their EPS. US companies have been purchasing their own shares on the back of cheap debt for some time. As with all practices. At some point in time The rooster will come home to roost. Then we'll see who is as strong they as appear.

itwasntme001

Alexland wrote: »

When did I suggest that significant changes would not affect long term performance? My point is the news in recent weeks has been very safely within the range of my (pessimistic) expecations so I am still happy to be buying more fund units at a lower prices.

Alex

You may not have said it explicitly, but you did imply it when you said it feels like you are saving or buying units for £500 cheaper.

Herbalus

6022tivo wrote: »

Sounds good, but I don't fancy becoming a target for a fraudster, or something similar..

Who wants a free coffee?

I actually wouldn’t mind that much. I don’t have too many contacts I can talk to about investments and pensions etc. They all roll their eyes and glaze over when money comes up in conversation.

Trouble is, I can almost guarantee I don’t live in the same place as you.

Even if by some bizarre coincidence you happened to come by Norwich some time, you still wouldn’t know whether I’m a fraudster or not!

Prism

itwasntme001 wrote: »

I am not saying to make decisions based on a FED statement or policy choice. Just to be aware these things can very well change the outlook for equities in the long run. And that "cheap" may not necessarily mean cheap. Cheap is cheap usually for a reason.

I agree with that totally that cheap doesn't really mean much when it comes to equities. I would buy or stick with my normal choices without much thought to costs. However if something that I was going to buy anyway happens to be cheaper due to market moves then I'm not going to complain

Rheumatoid

Herbalus wrote: »

Even if by some bizarre coincidence you happened to come by Norwich some time, you still wouldn’t know whether I’m a fraudster or not!

My test to determine your provenance would be to see how many toes you had

Herbalus

Rheumatoid wrote: »

My test to determine your provenance would be to see how many toes you had

Wasn't born there, I'm alright! :rotfl:

Audaxer

Prism wrote: »

I agree with that totally that cheap doesn't really mean much when it comes to equities.

When buying units in a well diversified equity fund with a good history that just happens to have fallen 10% in recent months, surely cheap in that case does mean cheap?

Rheumatoid

Herbalus wrote: »

Wasn't born there, I'm alright! :rotfl:

Unless you are a Suffolker.

I am a missionary as well.