No Santa Rally

Doshwaster

Apodemus wrote: »

And 47 is the atomic weight of silver, so clearly this thread is about commodity investments?

To be pedantic, 47 is the atomic number of silver. The atomic weight (or even more pedantically mass) is 107.8682 amu.

Apodemus

Doshwaster wrote: »

To be pedantic, 47 is the atomic number of silver. The atomic weight (or even more pedantically mass) is 107.8682 amu.

:embarasse

Alexland

Economic wrote: »

You are still persisting with your foolish idea that you are saving money because share prices are lower now than they were a few months ago. Markets are forward looking and they are looking forward to lower growth and higher interest rates in 2019.

Yes and you are still pressing on with your foolish assumption that market pricing is entirely rational and that taking advantage in dips will be of no benefit.

We expected medium term growth would be hampered before this dip so nothing has changed.

Alex

TBC15

Doshwaster wrote: »

To be pedantic, 47 is the atomic number of silver. The atomic weight (or even more pedantically mass) is 107.8682 amu.

I think you might have something there, see how easy it is to misread financial advice. So Titanium its up 14% this year,worth a punt?

dividendhero

Doshwaster wrote: »

To be pedantic, 47 is the atomic number of silver. The atomic weight (or even more pedantically mass) is 107.8682 amu.

Correct, though silver does have 28 radio isotopes and 2 stable ones. The radio isotopes have a maximum half life of around 40 days so you should be OK handling your hoard:beer:

6022tivo

It's someone like Alex I'd love to just have a chat to about my finances over a coffee.

I have bits and bobs of money all over the place, and my risk and thoughts about risk are much different to others.

Any Coffee/Beer based advisers who want to listen or read privately and help?


Other Bank type advisers play the safe brochure and sales game. It's annoying?

Prism

Economic wrote: »

. Markets are forward looking and they are looking forward to lower growth and higher interest rates in 2019.

Markets are very short term and forward looking. They say nothing really about what equities will be doing in 10 years time. Who cares what the interest rates are in 2019.

itwasntme001

Alexland wrote: »

Yes and you are still pressing on with your foolish assumption that market pricing is entirely rational and that taking advantage in dips will be of no benefit.

We expected medium term growth would be hampered before this dip so nothing has changed.

Alex

By this reasoning, why not just buy into markets that have underperformed? You should be having a significant overweight (compared to global market cap weightings) in EM and Europe right? I'm guessing not.


Whilst in the short term, markets can (but may not) behave irrationally, in the long term they usually don't. The problem is in your assumption that the market is indeed behaving irrationally now.


Whilst the world has known growth has been slowing (and hence probably the main reason for the peak in the summer), it appears the market anticipated the FED to be more dovish, hence the recent sell-off. Because of this announcement (as well as a host of other information that is continuously released day by day), this changes the future expectations for the stock market and hence we see the correction. This is what Economic is trying to say i believe.



When you are buying £500 "cheaper" you are now betting in the short term that the market was wrong about its reaction to the FED. You are also betting that in the long run the future expectations haven't changed (or haven't changed as much as the market is now pricing in). Whilst you may find it £500 cheaper, it may actually only be £300 cheaper or even £500 more expensive - because future EXPECTATIONS have now changed.


EDIT: of course expectations are entirely subjective and all you know is todays price which is why you dont actually know if you are actually getting a discount or not (given changes in future expected stock returns). And that's the beauty of the market and why it can be volatile - and hence why the typical advice on forums like this is to buy for at least a 10 year period and dont worry about corrections - it will probably be ok in the long term - although there are of course no guarantees!!!

itwasntme001

Prism wrote: »

Markets are very short term and forward looking. They say nothing really about what equities will be doing in 10 years time. Who cares what the interest rates are in 2019.

Who cares what interest rates are in 2019?? Oh dear. You do know the stock market levels and future expectations of the returns are a function of the TERM STRUCTURE of interest rates?


Not suggesting anything if its a good or bad time to buy. But to look at stocks as an investment without even considering one of the main drivers - interest rates - is very foolish.

eskbanker

6022tivo wrote: »

It's someone like Alex I'd love to just have a chat to about my finances over a coffee.

I have bits and bobs of money all over the place, and my risk and thoughts about risk are much different to others.

Any Coffee/Beer based advisers who want to listen or read privately and help?


Other Bank type advisers play the safe brochure and sales game. It's annoying?

Bank advisers are worth avoiding as they're essentially sales people who aren't motivated by your best interests.

Seems to me you have the option of either posting stuff on here (in your own thread, not this one) about your financial circumstances and ask for random posters' thoughts on how best to proceed, or talking to some independent financial advisers. For the latter, you can typically get an initial introductory meeting FOC but naturally if you want to extend that to tailored professional advice then you'll need to put your hand in your pocket, as it's how they make a living....