No Santa Rally

newatc

I think we can safely say no Santa Rally this year. as FTSE decline continues this morning. Will have to rely on Easter Bunny rally:)

AnotherJoe

Why do you care what the FTSE does ?

Malthusian

There is no such thing as a Santa rally. If there was such a thing the market would anticipate it before it happened, which would mean no Santa rally (as it would already be priced in before December).

Humans are good at finding non-existent patterns in randomness.

short_butt_sweet

IMHO, it's always the tooth fairy

bowlhead99

The old adage to "sell in May and don't come back until St Leger's day' would have been fine to follow this year, if you were exclusively a FTSE100 index investor. A sale on May 1 at 7500 or May 31 at 7700 would have let you back in at 7300 on 14/17 Sept, missing the 3-5% drop (and the dividends, but they were less than that). I didn't follow it as there's no more science behind it than there is for Santa rally.

I'm sure there will be some fun to be had with some shares over the festive period particularly as people position themselves for AIM minnows that they received a hot tip on for 2019, while trading is thin. As for a broader portfolio though, who knows!

newatc

AnotherJoe wrote: »

Why do you care what the FTSE does ?

Well my post was a bit tongue in cheek though I do look at the FTSE as a general guide how my fund investments are doing. I actually review/value my investments on a quarterly basis so I'm about two weeks from that.

Alexland

Santa's not delivering so I am guzzling up some cheaper global equity fund units.

At the top of the market I was 70% equities, 20% bonds and 10% cash.

The cash went into equities and I reduced my bonds this week to get back to an 80/20 allocation. If the stockmarket falls a bit further I will start 2019 with an adventurous (or maybe stupid) 85/15 allocation.

Alex

System

You are a contrarian investor? "Global investors make record shift into bonds"
https://www.ft.com/content/57c94330-02b0-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1
Assessing whether shares are cheap involves looking forward and not looking backwards.

Alexland

Yup last week was "The Greatest Week of Redemptions Ever" according to BoA Merrill Lynch data

https://citywire.co.uk/investment-trust-insider/news/investors-rush-for-the-exit-as-stock-market-confidence-crumbles/a1185258

Happy to take advantage of other people's fear again. Maybe they are right this time but I don't care as it will all be different by the time I withdraw anyway. I am never going to sell an equity unit at a loss.

Alex

atush

newatc wrote: »

I think we can safely say no Santa Rally this year. as FTSE decline continues this morning. Will have to rely on Easter Bunny rally:)

You think the Easter bunny will bring a rally 2 weeks after hard brexit?

Prism

Economic wrote: »

You are a contrarian investor? "Global investors make record shift into bonds"
https://www.ft.com/content/57c94330-02b0-11e9-99df-6183d3002ee1
Assessing whether shares are cheap involves looking forward and not looking backwards.

They are thinking too short term as most investors do. Nothing over the last year has persuaded me to do anything but more in global equities