The R word

THE_Terry_Urr

Herzlos wrote: »

I can point to many natives that are net drains.

I seem to remember reading that you lived in Scotland so of course you can.

THE_Terry_Urr

ukcarper wrote: »

Most of us are net contributors in the short term I don't think they paid that much for older posters education per pupil spending was much lower in 1960s and people started school later and left earlier. Yes many immigrants are in good jobs but I've seen no figures to show how many. Also I think a case for some low paid workers who might not be net contributers as they are needed. It's just I think the often quoted migrants and net contributers is flawed and I'd like to see a detailed report showing that.

It's no coincidence that the number of unskilled EU migrants slows to a trickle and at the same time wages of temporary workers rises at the fastest rate for over ten years. Wages overall have risen since EU migration has fallen after being stagnant for ages.
Coincidence.
Pure coincidence.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-rec/uk-temporary-workers-enjoy-biggest-pay-rise-since-2007-rec-idUKKBN1O603O

michaels

Hmm - retail footfall falling at fastest rate since the last recession:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46502650

Are we having a wile-e-coyote moment, passed the edge of the cliff, legs carry on running for a few seconds before gravity suddenly kicks in....


Of course it could just be an acceleration of the switch to online shopping but even that has real economic impact in terms of revenue going to Amazon rather than tax/rates/shop staff.

THE_Terry_Urr

michaels wrote: »

Hmm - retail footfall falling at fastest rate since the last recession:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46502650

Are we having a wile-e-coyote moment, passed the edge of the cliff, legs carry on running for a few seconds before gravity suddenly kicks in....


Of course it could just be an acceleration of the switch to online shopping but even that has real economic impact in terms of revenue going to Amazon rather than tax/rates/shop staff.

Nobody is interested in doing anything about it so far, that's for sure so IMHO we're being pushed into using the likes of Amazon.

The town nearest to me is almost £2 to park before you've spent a hapenny (it increases after the first hour, obvs) yet supermarkets out of town are free. Why should I pay for the privilege of spending my money when I can shop from the comfort of home, finding what I want usually cheaper and delivered too?
Councils and shopping centre management really need to get their heads around the fact that paying often-inflated prices for car parking is not going to encourage visitors.

kabayiri

michaels wrote: »

...
Of course it could just be an acceleration of the switch to online shopping but even that has real economic impact in terms of revenue going to Amazon rather than tax/rates/shop staff.

Timely to mention that Amazon have launched their first automated shop in this country (in London).

It probably follows the model of the one opened in Seattle earlier in the year.

Amazon's answer to shop staff incomes seems to be to bypass shop staff altogether !

We will probably lap this up, to be seen as embracing a technological marvel too.

I prefer old fashioned looting

michaels

kabayiri wrote: »

Timely to mention that Amazon have launched their first automated shop in this country (in London).

It probably follows the model of the one opened in Seattle earlier in the year.

Amazon's answer to shop staff incomes seems to be to bypass shop staff altogether !

We will probably lap this up, to be seen as embracing a technological marvel too.

I prefer old fashioned looting

Probably need to make sure you turn your phone off and take the battery out before breaking and entering the Amazon store then, otherwise you will just find you have been charged with all the stuff you thought you had stolen.

I don't think those who are desperate to see the minimum age increase quickly quite understand that for every person it lifts out of in-work benefits another is priced out of a job and onto JSA. Problem is those who make the laws in Westminster don't understand that outside London what seems like a pittance is actually very livable.

michaels

Seems the financial news is moving my way, I still think we will see negative growth in q4 and q1 19 unless a brexit deal is done early in the new year and then what happens depends on whether there is a brexit deal.

kabayiri

michaels wrote: »

Seems the financial news is moving my way, I still think we will see negative growth in q4 and q1 19 unless a brexit deal is done early in the new year and then what happens depends on whether there is a brexit deal.

An economics pundit, David Buick (I think that's his name), was fairly neutral to negative.

However he was keen to mention a raft of retail companies who will announce trading results after Xmas.

It might not be just ASOS who find they are struggling.

Suppose there is a recession. I wonder how interventionist the government can be this time around?

Last time they were active to cushion the effects. Do we have fewer options this time?

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

An economics pundit, David Buick (I think that's his name), was fairly neutral to negative.

However he was keen to mention a raft of retail companies who will announce trading results after Xmas.

It might not be just ASOS who find they are struggling.

Suppose there is a recession. I wonder how interventionist the government can be this time around?

Last time they were active to cushion the effects. Do we have fewer options this time?

Monetary policy wise obviously we can't cut rates nearly as much as we did last time around as they are still close to all time lows, obviously can start up the QE programme again, but not as effective as hefty rate cuts at boosting hte real economy.

Equally the higher debt numbers than we had back in 2008 give reason to be cautious about doing anything too expansionary on fiscal policy.

We probably have enough policy headroom to deal with a typical global slowdown, I don't believe we have enough to deal with a typical global slowdown with a no deal Brexit on top.

The ASOS warning was certainly interesting, not one you would usually expect, it may be indicating a very tough retail environment indeed this Christmas.

michaels

Filo25 wrote: »

Monetary policy wise obviously we can't cut rates nearly as much as we did last time around as they are still close to all time lows, obviously can start up the QE programme again, but not as effective as hefty rate cuts at boosting hte real economy.

Equally the higher debt numbers than we had back in 2008 give reason to be cautious about doing anything too expansionary on fiscal policy.

We probably have enough policy headroom to deal with a typical global slowdown, I don't believe we have enough to deal with a typical global slowdown with a no deal Brexit on top.

The ASOS warning was certainly interesting, not one you would usually expect, it may be indicating a very tough retail environment indeed this Christmas.

I am hoping it is just that asos had been doing so well that they and the markets had got a bit ahead of themselves as online competitors have upped their game - not sure it feels like that though....

The update to the student loan accounting while making no real difference to public finances certainly makes the deficit look bigger by 12bn increasing to 17bn pa which is huge.

I have a suspicion that UC may make any downturn cheaper for the public purse at least in the short term as those with assets are able to claim pretty much zilch but also reduces those 'automatic stabilisers' we learned about in 1st year economics.