The R word

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

From purely a UK perspective. Where's the growth going to come from? PPI has almost run it's course. Interest rates are edging upwards. Pay settlements are low and for many public sector workers below even CPI. Productivity shows no signs of improving. Consumer debt levels are high.

Perhaps the party is finally over. Post GFC fiscal policies simply deferring the inevitable. A period of consolidation as well. That kills off the zombie companies that are hanging onto to survive. The High Street massacre is far from over.

Interest rates won't be edging up for much longer if the global economy starts to cool.

Problems on both sides though as you say, productivity growth has been anaemic for a very long time, constraining the supply side and ability to grow real wages significantly, and the hefty debt pile out there is going to weigh on demand (and probably also restrict the scope of interest rate increases)

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

All I am saying is that we already have a Brexit thread, it would be nice to have this discussion on broader issues, as personally I would find it nice to have another thread that wasn't completely dominated by it, maybe just me though.

Still plenty that can be done on a daily basis to address structural problems in the economy. Brexit is currently politically driven in no way pragmatic. Which ultimately will effect peoples lives.

andrewf75

itwasntme001 wrote: »

Its not as simple as everything will rise in price.
.

No, but its also not as simple as wages will rise!

Overall there are far more negatives than positives.

andrewf75

itwasntme001 wrote: »

If you want to see conspiracy theories see posts #18 and #19.

They look like very sensible posts to me. Yours on the other hand appear very naiive, sorry.

Your view basically appears to be that the world is changing, but simultaneously everything is going to keep going as it is! They can’t both be true. Either these rebellions against globalisation will be short lived and things will go back to normal, or they will be permanent and there will be significant impacts.

itwasntme001

How are there more negatives then positives? Sure its not as simple as wages will just rise, but if you bring back home some production of goods and at the same time reduce the inflow of low skilled immigrants, it is very likely wages will rise.


Not sure where you came to the conclusion that i said world is changing and everything will stay the same? Care to point at my post that says this contradiction?


They seem sensible to you as they fit your ideas and beliefs. Its only natural and i'm not at all surprised.

andrewf75

itwasntme001 wrote: »

How are there more negatives then positives? Sure its not as simple as wages will just rise, but if you bring back home some production of goods and at the same time reduce the inflow of low skilled immigrants, it is very likely wages will rise.

Every economic forecast considers Brexit to have a negative impact economically. Reducing immigration and boosting domestic production is a good thing, but that will take a long time. The government isn’t going to deny business workers, immigration will continue much as before. The economy relies on it.
Even if wages rise, it won’t cancel out the weakened pound and the increased barriers to trade.

Not sure where you came to the conclusion that i said world is changing and everything will stay the same? Care to point at my post that says this contradiction?

You talk of going to WTO rules trade as if it’s a minor thing. Leaving the EU full stop is a massive change, going to WT rules for trade is going to have a huge impact.

They seem sensible to you as they fit your ideas and beliefs. Its only natural and i'm not at all surprised.

Actually no, I mostly completely disagree with at least one of those posters so it says a lot that we agree on this....

Don’t get me wrong I have a lot of issues with the status quo and I am not opposed to radical change. I just think its naiive to want radical change and then expect growth to tick along nicely. Its not compatible.

itwasntme001

I never said going to WTO rules is a minor thing. although it may appear by the way i said it. Please don't assume anything i say based on how i said it. Rather look at the actual content.


I also said that short term pain is to be expected and that it will be well worth it for the long term gain.


If you believe economic forecasts and base your opinion on them then i feel very sorry for you. Economic forecasts usually have many biases, and even those that don't really are just guessing as the economy is very difficult to forecast at the best of times - it is a complex beast. Just look at all the forecasts following the referendum. Also there's the case of every forecaster sticking with forecasts of other forecasts as if they are wrong, everyone is wrong. If they are the outlier in their forecasts and they turn out to be wrong, it looks a LOT worse for them.

andrewf75

itwasntme001 wrote: »

If you believe economic forecasts and base your opinion on them then i feel very sorry for you. .

I don’t (at all), but they can be wrong in both directions. One of the main problems with them is that they are based on everything continuing as before. Yes, they are biased, but biased towards the status quo which people are rising up against! There are clearly a lot of risks right now.

movilogo

Recession is good. Everything will become cheaper

kabayiri

It wasn't that long ago that China overtook the USA on a number of indicators, and is now #1 in GDP terms and #1 manufacturing power.

I don't think the USA could have just ignored the change in world dynamic, regardless of who was in power. Hilary has been pretty hawkish in the past.

China has plans to redirect more money into local development, rather than invest overseas.

Ultimately, isn't that going to affect those places which benefit from large scale Foreign Investment, like the City?