Nottingham Building Society - 1.55% Instant Access Account

soulsaver

Not even close:

36B/50k = 1 in 720k chance.

At the start, 12 goes = 1 in 719988 chance; last go is 1 in 720K.

1 in c.60k is the odds if you had 600k bonds at one go ie 36B/(12x50k) and that clearly isn't the case.

jrsga

soulsaver wrote: »

Not even close:

36B/50k = 1 in 720k chance.

At the start, 12 goes = 1 in 719988 chance; last go is 1 in 720K.

1 in c.60k is the odds if you had 600k bonds at one go ie 36B/(12x50k) and that clearly isn't the case.

Then M. Lewis and his analysis is incorrect?

soulsaver

jrsga wrote: »

Then M. Lewis and his analysis is incorrect?

c.60k:1 is incorrect by a country mile. I don't know how you came to it.

darren72

colsten wrote: »

I'm having some fun and games with them. My application went through alright, as did the original deposit. However, they are unable to send me my login details as GMAIL apparently blocks all emails from Notts BS. Calling them is a bit of a hit and miss - I have been cut off mid-call three times now.

I used to have accounts with them before and they were fine then, so I am still sticking with them for now.

I signed up yesterday with them - had no problems receiving my login details via my Gmail account.

eskbanker

soulsaver wrote: »

c.60k:1 is incorrect by a country mile. I don't know how you came to it.

The number is sourced from https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/savings/premium-bonds-calculator/, where it's explained that:

The underlying probability calculations behind this easy-to-use tool were designed by a post-doctoral cosmology statistician. Each month it runs for six hours, just to calculate the new odds!

soulsaver wrote: »

Not even close:

36B/50k = 1 in 720k chance.

At the start, 12 goes = 1 in 719988 chance; last go is 1 in 720K.

1 in c.60k is the odds if you had 600k bonds at one go ie 36B/(12x50k) and that clearly isn't the case.

The latest figure for winning £1m with a £50K holding in a single draw is 1 in 767,747.

For a run of 12 independent draws with a £50K holding, simply dividing by 12 is a perfectly workable approximation when working with numbers of this order of magnitude - 12 in 767,747 is 1 in 63,979 but I have no reason to doubt the modelled figure of 1 in 63,093. Or to put it another way, if you're asserting that this is "incorrect by a country mile" then perhaps you'd like to put forward a figure that you believe is accurate, with some idea of your workings?

mersey

Up and running,no problems.

londoninvestor

eskbanker wrote: »

For a run of 12 independent draws with a £50K holding, simply dividing by 12 is a perfectly workable approximation when working with numbers of this order of magnitude

Yep. Strictly, the chance of winning £1m at least once in a year is:

1 - (probability of NOT winning £1m in the year)
= 1 - (probability of NOT winning £1m in 12 independent draws)
= 1 - (1-n)^12 , where n is the chance of winning £1m in each draw
= 12n + 66n^2 + terms in n^3 and above

If n=1/767,747 then:

12n = 0.00001563015 = 1/63,979
66n^2 = 0.000000000111972: which makes almost no difference
...and the higher-order terms are even more negligible still.

stepea

if I've got 5k sitting in a current account, is it worth moving to something like this.

darren72

stepea wrote: »

if I've got 5k sitting in a current account, is it worth moving to something like this.

It depends which bank you are with and what interest rate they pay on credit balances...

stepea

darren72 wrote: »

It depends which bank you are with and what interest rate they pay on credit balances...

bank = nat west