Will there really be a crash?

GreatApe

The next recession is probably post 2025 so quite a long time to wait and most likely the inflation from now to 2025+ would mean waiting is a losers game

thickasabrick

Nobody can predict the future.
What you can do is run the figures with different scenarios and decide whether you personally are comfortable with them.

I quite like this calculator on the New York times site as it takes the most important costs associated with buying a house and computes the equivalent monthly rent.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html?_r=0


The interesting thing about looking at this is determing the "break even" point, were you may be better off buying as opposed to renting.

Assumption is that you have a secure job and don't expect to move for the next couple of years. Otherwise why purchase a house because of the up-front costs ?

So even if there was a substantial drop in property prices, the problems associated with negative equity are unlikely to make much difference to your situation and eventually you will pay off the mortgage.

https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/articles/negative-equity-what-it-means-and-what-you-can-do-about-it#problems-that-come-with-negative-equity


I believe you are quite right to be wary, but if the figures make sense for you then go ahead.
I'd be more interested in what percentage of the price you've negotiated off rather than the amount as that also reduces the risk to you if prices drop further.

jane101q wrote: »

Thank you all for the reassurance so far, just thought I'll highlight that the house is in Greater London hence the concern.

The rationale is that London prices have been steadily falling which we have been seeing since the end of last year, there have been some predictions that this will be greater once we that BREXIT mark. Initially I thought it was scaremongering but I have seen houses/flats I viewed in June still on the market despite numerous reductions in price. I did negotiate a bit off but it was only £5k.

BikingBud

triathlon wrote: »

A few of you might be overly PC and be critical of me, but 100% of you know I am speaking the truth about renters. They are at very least despised from Government to the local people whose streets they live on, they even despise themselves in most cases as they relish the downfall of superior homeowners.

Most homeowners this weekend never visited rental homes to socialise or allowed their kids to play with kids from rental estates, I don't want my children brainwashed with subliminal failure and doom and gloom. This weekend we had a big get together come property investment meeting at my home, there was a serious note to it but it just reeked of joy and smiles and just nice family orientated people who just embrace the future, we packed up the business side late afternoon and watched the football instead over a few beers. The BTL's can take care of themselves most of the time so why sweat, I just cannot imagine knocking about with any loser that rented, YOU ALL KNOW I AM SPEAKING THE TRUTH.

We have £100,000's in property equity now, come next May we are going to release just a tiny amount of that and go on a European and then US holiday of a lifetime for 3 month, it will not even make a dent. We worked so hard to get the mortgages and tenants and then keep an close eye on them all the time, to have people come onto sites like this and HPC.com and want to destroy my families good fortune is as about as sick as it comes, this sort of envy never happens in the USA.

Anyway, just buy property, you might have to odd little blip, but you will be glad you did.

Mate I do really think you are at best very deluded and at the worst actually quite dangerous.

I think the phrase that you used, ie "good fortune" sums it all up. You have been lucky, others are less fortunate for a whole variety of reasons, lost jobs, split marriages etc that has made them take accommodation where they must, it does not make them the scum of the earth that you seem to imply.

Karma has its own way of sorting things out.

Thrugelmir

GreatApe wrote: »

No

He , you and plenty of others on the left are tapping into the normal distribution of human misery and blaming that on free market capitalism

Any objective look at the world shows that the system of free trade free market capitalism is improving lives at a rate almost unimaginable

Nah. You are obviously not up to date with the current thinking. Hindsight is great now we are 10/12 years past the crisis.

triathlon

BikingBud wrote: »

Mate I do really think you are at best very deluded and at the worst actually quite dangerous.

I think the phase that you used, ie "good fortune" sums it all up. You have been lucky, others are less fortunate for a whole variety of reasons, lost jobs, split marriages etc that has made them take accommodation where they must, it does not make them the scum of the earth that you seem to imply.

Karma has its own way of sorting things out.

The jealousy from some of the posters just leaps out at you, and you are not close to the worst. Everything is always someone else's fault, your job losses and failed marriages etc, all someone else's fault. All these millions of people now being conned by Corbyn who think they will all have cushy easy lives where they can weigh in at 20 stone, smoke fags and blame the elite like us for their laziness and we will just hand it over.

Best bit I can give nearly 99% of those wishing a property crash and want a certain answer to their problem, look for the nearest mirror, look in it, there is your problem. My kids will never sleep in a hostel or go without the essentials, they will never see their Dad crying and weeping how unfair the world is, they will always see a winner and become one themselves. This country has never been better than now for aspiration and actually getting on in life, look at the history books if you want to see real struggling.

Anyway diner tonight with even more winners, roughly £12 million in property between them, they will be winners today and winners when you lot are still waiting for Corbyn to sort your lives out, wake you people, it has never been easier.

BikingBud

Elite? Winner? C'mon you cannot even string a sentence together. Do you ever stop and consider what utter drivel you are writing? Not only is it drivel it is also incoherent drivel.

Don't knock hostels they are great places, I've spent many a great evening in youth hostels. Often singing ging gang goolie and other such wonderful and uplifting songs.

Maybe the fact that you missed out on this life enhancing experience is the reason you come across as Ebeneezer's brother. How is Scrooge Marley and Sons getting on?

Sapphire

triathlon wrote: »

This country has never been better than now for aspiration and actually getting on in life, look at the history books if you want to see real struggling.

With that, I would agree. I know how hard it has been for previous generations, though perhaps the fact that so many of our often old, historic companies have been sold off to huge corporations is of some concern when it comes to 'achieving aspirations', which it was possible to do when people were paid adequately, without this constant race to the bottom, fueled by cheap imported labour, when it comes to wages. Automation will only bring more problems when it comes to working to 'achieve aspirations', since there is likely to be a limited amount of work and means to work one's way into a career. What will people do then? Humans thrive on challenge. Will the 'challenge' of sitting on one's apse all day and being brainwashed into group-think on social media be enough for most people?

The thing I would leave out of the above (quoted) assessment is the treatment of defenceless, very old people, who cannot scream and shout and complain how unfair life is, etc. (not that people of that generation were prone to such behaviour). I've seen both in my family and in the families of friends how appalling the 'care' is for these people, who are treated as 'things', with family often just waiting for them to die so that they can take what those now-old people often worked hard all their lives to achieve, and frequently in conditions that people seem to have no concept of today. They are given the most basic care, often with the cheapest possible imported labour that has had no training (and has no compassion for) the poor old people, rather than the excellent, specialized care they should be receiving. I think it is cruel and shameful, and says something about our society.

margaretx9

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Corbyn is tapping into the disenfranchisement caused by the GFC and the policies adopted to rectify the situation. The wealth divide is now the greatest since the period 1935-1940. The rise of extremist political views is hardly surprising. Nor will people care about Corbyn's more dangerous views. If there's a tangible benefit to them in getting him elected as PM.

And housing tenure is changing rapidly according to the Government's English household survey. Numbers renting amongst those under 45 is rising sharply and numbers owning is also declining.

In 2016-17 30% of households headed by 35-44 year olds rented privately - nearly triple the 11% level in 2006-07 and the proportion who own has fallen from 72% to 52%.

While 27% of those aged 25 to 34 rented privately in 2006/7, this had risen to a massive 46% in 2016-17. Over the same period, the proportion of 25-34 year olds in owner-occupation had dropped from 57% to 37%.

And we forget of course the data counts households - so one old lady living alone in a 5 bed house is counted the same as five 25 year olds sharing a rented 5 bed house. In practice only one in six of the people in these houses are owner occupiers - but the official stats based on households suggest it is one in two!

So in reality the number of people who own (or jointly own) a home is probably overstated and the number who rent privately is understated because numbers of households and numbers of people arent the same thing! Because the young and poor are more likely to live in shared accommodation and owner occupiers are more likely to live alone or in couples (e.g. retirees).

In due course renters will outnumber owners - it is already happening in London - and politicians will have to change course to ensure they continue to get elected. What of course is most scary is what happens when all these private renters retire - the housing benefit bill will be crippling.

As for the above poster who said people despise renters - does that mean we now despise our kids and grandkids. Cos increasingly they are renting - many into their 40s and beyond.

bertiewhite

lookstraightahead wrote: »

A homeowner might be more attractive than a renter at first glance, but a renter might have done so much more with their lives, rather than sitting on a pile of bricks.

Or look at it this way - the renter will still be renting into retirement and although they will have the free time to do stuff, they'll have less money.

The homeowner (eg. me) is more likely to have paid off the mortgage by the time they've retired and have more money AND time to do something with their lives.

triathlon

PasturesNew wrote: »

The last "crash" didn't really happen, noticeably....

You need somewhere to live, you've found it.... waiting will most likely just be a needless waste of your time.

Get moving in .... and live.

Exactly

Mock me as much as you want people, but just do not give this young lady advice that is going to ruin her life just because so many of you failed in life.