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Will there really be a crash?

edited 13 September 2018 at 4:43PM in Debate House Prices & the Economy
415 replies 6K views
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  • vpeakevpeake Users Awaiting Email Confirmation
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    We've just bought a house, but are on a 5 year fix. The area where we live has become quite popular recently due to it being by an area in high demand (which we couldnt afford).

    My boyfriend was so worried this morning after the house price news, but I am trying to remain hopeful and think that it's better than renting or buying a house in a recession.
    :j:j:j
  • margaretx9margaretx9 Forumite
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    Just out of interest, if they did crash by 35% (they won't) would all you young remain voters take advantage of that brexit bonus and try to buy a property? ;)

    If they fell 35% in London average prices would just revert to 2012 levels - an average of around £400k. So you would still only need a 10 times average salary to buy an average property - simples - or 5 times for a couple with no kids.

    I expect Carney would probably introduce negative interest rates and hundreds of billions more in QE to keep prices up - with the Government probably providing 95% help to buy (i.e. you pay a 5% deposit and get an interest free loan on the rest for 5 years). As long as it keeps prices high the young remainers can go lump it.
  • ThrugelmirThrugelmir Forumite
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    The last "crash" didn't really happen, noticeably....

    Central Banks fired every shell in the armoury though. Little left if there's further strife.
    “An investor who has all the answers doesn’t even understand all the questions.” - John Templeton
  • Daniel54Daniel54 Forumite
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    margaretx9 wrote: »
    I expect Carney would probably introduce negative interest rates and hundreds of billions more in QE to keep prices up - with the Government probably providing 95% help to buy (i.e. you pay a 5% deposit and get an interest free loan on the rest for 5 years). As long as it keeps prices high the young remainers can go lump it.

    In the sort of disaster scenaio modelled - not predicted-by the BoE,interest rates would need to rise to support Government borrowing.A fall in house prices would be collateral damage against this imperative.
  • lookstraightaheadlookstraightahead Forumite
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    Why does every house need to be an investment? You need somewhere to live!

    Having said that, we've got too used to greedy homeowners who think they can get rich from bricks and mortar - false wealth. It's time for an adjustment
  • Crashy_TimeCrashy_Time Forumite
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    jane101q wrote: »
    I'm in the process of buying a house and I'm seriously considering pulling out before the search due to the regular reports of prices going down and an impending crash.

    I'm a FTB and I wouldn't want to pay for something then it a significant amount of value in April next year when I could potentially just wait buy something maybe even bigger and in a better area then but then again I don't want to loose this opportunity and the drop never happen and be priced out.

    It is a one bedroom house so I won't have the advantage of renting out a room if money ever becomes a issue post crash. Do you think this drop will be more likely a stagnation of prices or a full blown crash like in 2008.


    This time around they can`t drop rates to bail out those heavily into mortgage debt :( so this one will be very different IMO.
  • edited 14 September 2018 at 8:09PM
    WobblyDogWobblyDog Forumite
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    edited 14 September 2018 at 8:09PM
    I'd love to see a crash, it would make it easier for me to reach the next rung on the housing ladder. In a fairer, more rational world, house prices would be lower.

    In reality, I think politicians of all hues will make preventing or softening any crash a high priority, so I don't expect prices to fall much. Perhaps if millions of people decided to leave the UK after brexit, that would reduce house prices, but I don't see that happening either.
  • Crashy_TimeCrashy_Time Forumite
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    WobblyDog wrote: »
    I'd love to see a crash, it would make it easier for me to reach the next rung on the housing ladder. In a fairer, more rational world, house prices would be lower.

    In reality, I think politicians of all hues will make preventing or softening any crash a high priority, so I don't expect prices to fall much. Perhaps if millions of people decided to leave the UK after brexit, that would reduce house prices, but I don't see that happening either.


    All it takes is a few rate hikes, the US is leading the way, and global/EU volatility will do the rest IMO. The idea that millions of people need to leave is way off the mark IMO, and all it takes is a couple of panicked BTL`ers in a street to drop the price for the whole street/area.
  • All it takes is a few rate hikes, the US is leading the way, and global/EU volatility will do the rest IMO. The idea that millions of people need to leave is way off the mark IMO, and all it takes is a couple of panicked BTL`ers in a street to drop the price for the whole street/area.

    Tell you what Crashy....you seem certain of yourself, so lets have a bit of fun

    If the halifax house price index falls from todays level by 35% at any point in the next year, I will send you £1000

    If it doesnt you send me £100

    Hows that then my old bedsit friend?
  • badmemorybadmemory Forumite
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    As long as the house you are buying doesn't fall significantly into negative equity then you have got to be better off than someone who will be paying rent for all their lifetime.


    If you own your own roof (or part thereof) then the price of that roof is pretty much irrelevant. If you move the house you are buying will have gone up/down in price in a very similar way to the house you are selling. It is getting that first step on the ladder!
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