Will there really be a crash?

GreatApe

BikingBud wrote: »

Using National Stats:

Inheritance tax: Estates notified to HMRC: 2015-16

Total Number of deaths - 588,000
Number not taxed - 251, 000 ~42.6 %
Number taxed - 24,500 ~4.2%
Bear in mind only estates over £325000 were liable. So less than 10% of those estates accrue a tax liability, it does show how the wealth is distributed.

Your made up and generalised figures paint an altogether different picture.

So your claim has moved onto not the denial of this £10 trillion in the stock of capital or the flow of £200 billion annually to the younger form the older but that we can safely ignore this capital because in your view it only accrues to a tiny percentage of the population?

You would be wrong there too.
Just look at housing, more than 75% of the old own their own homes, almost always completely mortgage free (or a trivial sum). So if on death 75% are owners guess who that goes to? it does not go 'to the 1%' it goes to the vast majority

Most uk born Brits will get a significant inheritance or gifted wealth or both.
This is one of the reasons people get more and more right of center with age its because they accrue capital much of it gifted/inherited. And this gifted/inherited wealth plays a big part in affordability.

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

I'm talking about people who want to sell but can't there are fewer properties on the market and a lot of those aren't selling.

This is not true, I actually keep a record of the number of properties for sale on the major portals for large sections of the SE and London and the number of properties for sale is a good deal higher than it was in early 2016

It is true that it is taking longer to sell properties than two three years ago but this goes hand in hand with more stock for sale.

Think of a bucket with a hold at the bottom and a tap filling it up.
You always have properties selling and you always have properties being added to the market to be sold. The stock of properties is the liters of water in the bucket and as the stock is higher (more water in the bucket) it takes longer for each molecule of water to exit the bucket

There have been lots of changes over the last 3 years so it is difficult to say why there is more stock and its taking longer to shift but taxes have their part and maybe just indecision due to brexit and the slight slowing of the economy.

GreatApe

BikingBud wrote: »

So does the +3% affect affordability or not?

Sure it makes property less affordable over time than they otherwise would be

qwert_yuiop

GreatApe wrote: »

Most uk born Brits will get a significant inheritance or gifted wealth or both.

Can we see the figures which show this, please?

GreatApe

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Can we see the figures which show this, please?

There are figures on inheritances but you need some data analysis ability to interpret them. There are no real reliable figures on gifted wealth but you also also use some data analysis to infer a reasonable guess.

But there is a easy way to show it with just some basic math and common sense

How many old people own their own homes? It is a majority something around 75%

So if 75% of grand parents own their own home and they cant take it to the other side what happens? It gets passed down via inherited wealth

Some people jump in and say but hold on a second grandma owns a house but has 4 grand kids so each grand kid only gets 1/4th of a house. Sure that is true but each grand kid has two sets of grand parents so gets 1/4th x 2 and each of these kids will parter up with someone at some stage who also has 1/4th x 2 so in total it becomes 1 whole house per couple

This is assuming 2 kids per woman, in fact brits have less than 2 kids per woman now so the kids will in fact mostly be getting more than 1 house worth of wealth

In fact it is much more than that because housing wealth is about half, just below half, of all gifted inherited wealth but housing wealth is very widely distributed

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

There are figures on inheritances but you need some data analysis ability to interpret them. There are no real reliable figures on gifted wealth but you also also use some data analysis to infer a reasonable guess.

But there is a easy way to show it with just some basic math and common sense

How many old people own their own homes? It is a majority something around 75%

So if 75% of grand parents own their own home and they cant take it to the other side what happens? It gets passed down via inherited wealth

Some people jump in and say but hold on a second grandma owns a house but has 4 grand kids so each grand kid only gets 1/4th of a house. Sure that is true but each grand kid has two sets of grand parents so gets 1/4th x 2 and each of these kids will parter up with someone at some stage who also has 1/4th x 2 so in total it becomes 1 whole house per couple

This is assuming 2 kids per woman, in fact brits have less than 2 kids per woman now so the kids will in fact mostly be getting more than 1 house worth of wealth

In fact it is much more than that because housing wealth is about half, just below half, of all gifted inherited wealth but housing wealth is very widely distributed

I'm glade to see you are still arguing this I think you will have as much luck convincing your bikingbud as you did me.

BikingBud

No I have not accepted any of you argument, just stating facts as I can easily find them on the wonderful world wide web, hey that's great isn't it, it's now 4dubs:j

GreatApe wrote: »

So your claim has moved onto not the denial of this £10 trillion in the stock of capital or the flow of £200 billion annually to the younger form the older but that we can safely ignore this capital because in your view it only accrues to a tiny percentage of the population?

You would be wrong there too.
Just look at housing, more than 75% of the old own their own homes, so what is the % of the population that is old? again the ONS gives us a figure, they are good aren't they :T

The population in the UK is getting older with 18% aged 65 and over and 2.4% aged 85 and over.

almost always completely mortgage free (or a trivial sum). So if on death 75% are owners guess who that goes to? it does not go 'to the 1%' it goes to the vast majority define vast majority >75%?

So 75%(your figure of mortgage free old peeps) of 18% (ONS figure for old peeps in the UK population)= 13.5 %. How many of these die each year? (BTW you bucket analogy is flawed as the water level rises the pressure increases and the flow from the bottom of the bucket will increase :cool: did you mention somewhere that you're an engineer?) Anyway, if the dying population,(please offer a figure, I have tried but you poh-poohed that) have enough wealth to redistribute to the other 41.5% (I'll use that as 55% could be argued to be most) and make every body happy I make that being shared between 3 people at best and at worst if we take a vast majority figure of 75% closer to 5 other people how does the wealth get concentrated? Your earlier quote:

What do you find so hard, when women have fewer than 2 kids the accumulated capital of a bloodline grows each generation and on average British women have fewer than 2 kids now so capital will concentrate in the hands of their kids.

Most uk born Brits will get a significant inheritance or gifted wealth or both.
This is one of the reasons people get more and more right of center with age its because they accrue capital much of it gifted/inherited. And this gifted/inherited wealth plays a big part in affordability.

I keep trying to follow your argument but it is inconsistent and riddled with gross assumptions and lacks basic credible facts. Trust us to assess any facts or links you may wish to use in support of your discussion

BikingBud

You still dodging the qs.

GreatApe wrote: »

There are figures on inheritances but you need some data analysis ability to interpret them. There are no real reliable figures so where do you get them from? on gifted wealth but you also also use some data analysis to infer a reasonable - define reasonable guess.

But there is a easy way to show it with just some basic maths and common sense - define common sense

How many old people own their own homes? It is a majority something around 75%

So if 75% of grand parents own their own home and they cant take it to the other side what happens? It pays for the old peeps home costs or has been blown on round the world cruises after kicking the !!!! out of the equity release scheme, go party🥂✈️🛳🏯🏟🌋 Grandma It gets passed down via inherited wealth

Some people jump in and say but hold on a second grandma owns a house but has 4 grand kids so each grand kid only gets 1/4th of a house. Sure that is true but each grand kid has two sets of grand parents so gets 1/4th x 2 and each of these kids will parter up with someone at some stage who also has 1/4th x 2 so in total it becomes 1 whole house per couple - What about the 21% of single parent families? Some peeps are growing up without 4 grand peeps😪

This is assuming 2 kids per woman - that's sexist, in fact brits have less than 2 kids per woman now so the kids will in fact mostly be getting more than 1 house worth of wealth

In fact it is much more than that because housing wealth is about half, just below half, - show me the figures of all gifted inherited wealth but housing wealth is very widely distributed

BikingBud

Oh forgot to mention; 96.73986% of 48 women sampled said that wild mushroom mulch made their hair feel shiny and smooth. It's a fact.

triathlon

Here is a fact, 97.567% of renters are just bitter little people who think being funny or trying to be funny in some way makes them right. Anyway I am just waking up to another wonderful day in my beautiful big home overlooking fields and coastline in the distance next to me gorgeous lady, while you put your first foot on the floor knocking over those empty beer cans in that sad old bedsit .
Carry on with the lame wit, how is it working out for you?, just make sure you pay my rent at the end of the month and you can be as "witty" as you like.