Will there really be a crash?

C_Mababejive

GreatApe wrote: »

There are very few empty homes in the UK the stock has an occupancy rate of around 99% and of the 1% that are empty its mostly churn of structural damage. That is to say a house somewhere becomes dilapidated and enters a period of being empty until someone puts it back into usable state.

Who will move into new homes? We just like less dense. So instead of 240 people living in 100 homes we will go to 240 people living in 120 homes

Normally flats and especially 1-2 bedroom flats are not very desirable as owner homes so they are mostly rented.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/number-empty-homes-england-rises-first-time-decade/

Is it only recently that we like less dense? Presumably this may be attributed to children leaving home, greater number of singles/divorced ?

I think also it is only a matter of time before Government legislates to address the large number of empty homes in big cities such as London since apparently a lot of these are just bought as investments and left empty .

Also HM Government will tighten tax regimes and begin to restrict/restructure/taper its criminal waste of taxpayers money aka Help To Buy.

Sapphire

C_Mababejive wrote: »

Is it only recently that we like less dense? Presumably this may be attributed to children leaving home, greater number of singles/divorced ?

I think it is because most people now have the comparative luxury of being able to afford to live 'less dense' (despite the whinging). Even until quite recently, several families used to live in one small house, and more recently you could easily have parents and four children living in a small two-bedroom flat (one bedroom very much single; tiny kitchenette and bathroom, and so on). Several generations (including elderly grandparents and even great-grandparents) would also live with their offspring in small flats or houses.

Some have forgotten all that (or have never learnt social history, or choose to ignore it for their own convenience) in the frantic quest for the often vulgar 'must haves' to impress others and make themselves somehow feel like worthwhile individuals.

Strange society at the moment. :cool:

GreatApe

C_Mababejive wrote: »

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/number-empty-homes-england-rises-first-time-decade/

Is it only recently that we like less dense? Presumably this may be attributed to children leaving home, greater number of singles/divorced ?

I think also it is only a matter of time before Government legislates to address the large number of empty homes in big cities such as London since apparently a lot of these are just bought as investments and left empty .

Also HM Government will tighten tax regimes and begin to restrict/restructure/taper its criminal waste of taxpayers money aka Help To Buy.

There are not many empty homes in England and most of them are dilapidated

Each week a number of homes become dilapidated as the previous owner did not keep maintaining it properly they get to a state where they are unlivable

For example a house on our street was empty for the best part of 2 years while two different owners tried to bring it back to a usable state it needed new foundations to stop it shining plus a lot more etc.

The reason the number of empty homes is mostly static is becuase the rate of homes becoming unlivable and the rate of unlivable homes being improved at more or less the same.

Think of a bucket with 5 litres of water, it has a hole in it which is letting out 2 litres per day and there is also a slow drip tap letting in 2 litres per day. The bucket stays around 5 litres as some water is being added while some is dripping out the hole. That is roughly what the empty homes are. With thousands a week returned to use while thousands of others up and down the country enter the unusable state.

overall it is not a problem, empty homes are mostly not empty homes but homes temporarily in a state unfit to be used.

GreatApe

It does not make much sense to even think of house 'prices' because almost no one pays todays prices. Homes are mostly a game of musical chairs. If I purchased 10 years ago and I want to move I am more or less paying 10 years ago prices not today headline prices

In any given year only 3-4% of homes transact paying that years prices however most of these buyers are also sellers or people who have inhered housing wealth/capital. Overall when you think it though less than 1% of homeowners actually pay 2018 prices

This is why house prices can go up a lot yet affordability not be impacted much at all because 99% of home buyers pay for housing with housing. It is also why house prices can go down a lot yet affordability not improve much at all because again 99% of home buyers pay for housing with housing.

The only housing we actually pay for are new builds all the rest is just churn

BikingBud

I think GreatApe makes up 74.367859268% of his statistics. What do you all think?

PS Can I have one of those shining houses? Don't worry about doing the foundations I'll take it as it is. I really like shining things and if I have a lot of them I must be rich🤩

I've already got some shiny marbles and some tin foil, that is left over from my last kit kat, oh and I better not forget those bits of mirror that I found as well.

Wow shiny💿📀💡🛎🛡🏆🥇🎖

BikingBud

GreatApe wrote: »

It does not make much sense to even think of house 'prices' because almost no one pays todays prices. Homes are mostly a game of musical chairs. If I purchased 10 years ago and I want to move I am more or less paying 10 years ago prices not today headline prices

In any given year only 3-4% of homes transact paying that years prices however most of these buyers are also sellers or people who have inhered housing wealth/capital. Overall when you think it though less than 1% of homeowners actually pay 2018 prices

This is why house prices can go up a lot yet affordability not be impacted much at all because 99% of home buyers pay for housing with housing. It is also why house prices can go down a lot yet affordability not improve much at all because again 99% of home buyers pay for housing with housing.

The only housing we actually pay for are new builds all the rest is just churn

People may be fortunate enough to have enough equity in one property to transfer that to ownership of another but and there is always a but, people do not go from one property to one of the same value and even if they did they would be transaction fees to be covered as well. So some benefit in kind has also to be used, to those providing the service; estate agents, surveyors, lawyers etc, and lets not forget the government, we tend to use cash nowadays but carrots, potatoes, other skills have previously been used, these can also be used to generate cash when you offer them to other people.

Affordability hasn't changed because interest rates are still very low and kicking the can down the road makes anything affordable as you rely on the asset value increasing and bailing you out of the overstretch.

The UK is in debt, massive debt, face up to it mate. And very few people have an escape plan. They are just holding on, hoping that nothing changes too much.

lookstraightahead

BikingBud wrote: »

I think GreatApe makes up 74.367859268% of his statistics. What do you all think?

PS Can I have one of those shining houses? Don't worry about doing the foundations I'll take it as it is. I really like shining things and if I have a lot of them I must be rich🤩

I've already got some shiny marbles and some tin foil, that is left over from my last kit kat, oh and I better not forget those bits of mirror that I found as well.

Wow shiny💿📀💡🛎🛡🏆🥇🎖

Brilliant and so true

adindas

GreatApe wrote: »

It does not make much sense to even think of house 'prices' because almost no one pays todays prices. Homes are mostly a game of musical chairs. If I purchased 10 years ago and I want to move I am more or less paying 10 years ago prices not today headline prices

In any given year only 3-4% of homes transact paying that years prices however most of these buyers are also sellers or people who have inhered housing wealth/capital. Overall when you think it though less than 1% of homeowners actually pay 2018 prices

This is why house prices can go up a lot yet affordability not be impacted much at all because 99% of home buyers pay for housing with housing. It is also why house prices can go down a lot yet affordability not improve much at all because again 99% of home buyers pay for housing with housing.

The only housing we actually pay for are new builds all the rest is just churn

Tell me where could I buy a house in London at ten years ago prices not today headline prices.

GreatApe

adindas wrote: »

Tell me where could I buy a house in London at ten years ago prices not today headline prices.

If you are uk born with uk born parents the chances are quite high that you or your partner will be gifted or inherit housing wealth. Most uk born will in fact inherit more than 1 house equivalent because most uk born women now have fewer than 2 kids

Some £200 billion each year is gifted/inherited that is equal to about 1 million homes worth of wealth gifted/inherited each and every year

This is one of the main reasons the UK (and other developed nations) is rich we have already built out a huge stock of capital (UK >£10 trillion in capital) and this is gifted by the old to the younger for free.

The best way to think of housing is that we only really pay for new builds, the existing stock is just churn a game of musical chairs.

GreatApe

BikingBud wrote: »

People may be fortunate enough to have enough equity in one property to transfer that to ownership of another but and there is always a but, people do not go from one property to one of the same value and even if they did they would be transaction fees to be covered as well. So some benefit in kind has also to be used, to those providing the service; estate agents, surveyors, lawyers etc, and lets not forget the government, we tend to use cash nowadays but carrots, potatoes, other skills have previously been used, these can also be used to generate cash when you offer them to other people.

Affordability hasn't changed because interest rates are still very low and kicking the can down the road makes anything affordable as you rely on the asset value increasing and bailing you out of the overstretch.

The UK is in debt, massive debt, face up to it mate. And very few people have an escape plan. They are just holding on, hoping that nothing changes too much.

You've not said anything at all in that post really

I grant this is not an easy concept to grasp for the average person. A nation only pays for new builds. For the existing stock its just upkeep their price is irrelevant to affordability

Even if the average house cost £1 million that would not impact affordability much because although houses in that example cost 5 x as much as today you have also just increased the stock of wealth in the country by £30 trillion and you have just increased inherited/gifted annual housing wealth towards £500 billion a year

So while people who have nothing else but income can no longer afford the majority are not in that situation the majority do have access to this £200 billion gifted/inherited a year and the majority of existing home owners have already guaranteed prices of years ago not of 2018

This is also true the other way around. If house prices crash 50% affordability does not improve much. Or even if house prices crash 90% affordability does not improve much. Think of it this way lets say house prices did crash 90% can the average person buy a bigger better house? How is this possible? We have ~29 million homes, crash or boom we have ~29 million homes so there is no way that in a crash the populous can afford a bigger better home because the homes are the same irrespective of price.

I will grant that the type of people who can buy in a boom or a crash are different but not the average person. In a boom those who have capital wealth find it easier to buy and in a bust those with only income wealth find it easier to buy.