Will there really be a crash?

GreatApe

My theory is easy to prove

Houses cost a lot more today than they did 5 years ago yet people are able to afford to buy at today prices despite the bears protests that property is unaffordable over a million homes transact so they are clearly affordable

How is it that people are able to buy at todays prices?
The answer is obvious people buy housing with housing (and also other capital wealth)

The big mistake of the bears is to not know this fact.
The £200 billion a year in gifted/inherited housing and other capital plays a huge role in the market ignoring that £200 billion a year is stupid

If house prices double, inherited and gifted wealth more or less doubles so affordability for that group is not impacted much by house price movements.

The good news is if you are uk born with uk born parents the chances are quite high that you or your partner will inherit a house or the wealth to buy a house. For most uk born brits housing is free irrespective of the price

BikingBud

@GreatApe

How many people die in the UK each year?

2017 - There were 533,253 deaths registered in England and Wales in 2017, a 1.6% increase from 2016 and the highest number registered annually since 2003. - ONS so even if every person that died had a home to gift where do the extra 467000 ish homes come from?

A nation only pays for new builds. For the existing stock its just upkeep their price is irrelevant to affordability

So the increased cost is a gift then is it?:rotfl:

In 2017 the average number of dependent children per family was 1.75 your use of most in terms of:

Most uk born will in fact inherit more than 1 house equivalent because most uk born women now have fewer than 2 kids

is inappropriate.

This may be simple stuff mate but it doesn't mean you can make it up:(

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

My theory is easy to prove

Houses cost a lot more today than they did 5 years ago yet people are able to afford to buy at today prices despite the bears protests that property is unaffordable over a million homes transact so they are clearly affordable

How is it that people are able to buy at todays prices?
The answer is obvious people buy housing with housing (and also other capital wealth)

Are people buying property where I am the market has almost come to a complete stop.

GreatApe

BikingBud wrote: »

@GreatApe

How many people die in the UK each year?

2017 - There were 533,253 deaths registered in England and Wales in 2017, a 1.6% increase from 2016 and the highest number registered annually since 2003. - ONS so even if every person that died had a home to gift where do the extra 467000 ish homes come from?

I did not say a million homes a year are gifted/inherited. I said ~£200 billion pounds worth of capital is gifted/inherited per year and that this £200 billion in capital is equal to about 1 million homes assuming an average value of £200k a house.

If you want to break it down I think homes are just a little under half of this £200 billion annually, the rest are cash savings shares pensions life insurance land other building etc. And not all wealth is gifted/inherited on death people gift before death too so looking at death rates tells you not a lot.

In 2017 the average number of dependent children per family was 1.75 your use of most in terms of:

is inappropriate.

This may be simple stuff mate but it doesn't mean you can make it up

What do you find so hard, when women have fewer than 2 kids the accumulated capital of a bloodline grows each generation and on average British women have fewer than 2 kids now so capital will concentrate in the hands of their kids.

High prices actually benefit the natives and harm mostly the migrants and people who opt to have many more than 2 kids. Low prices would harm the natives and benefit migrants and people who opt to have many kids.

BikingBud

Perhaps you could provide answers to my queries in red:

GreatApe wrote: »

My theory is easy to prove - Is this jumbled discussion proof?

Houses cost a lot more today than they did 5 years ago yet people are able to afford to buy at today prices despite the bears protests that property is unaffordable over a million homes transact so they are clearly affordable - We've tried this one before, define affordable?

How is it that people are able to buy at todays prices?
The answer is obvious people buy housing with housing (and also other capital wealth) - Tell me more about the capital wealth. What is the ratio and where does it come from?

The big mistake of the bears is to not know this fact. - A fact or merely your fancy?
The £200 billion a year in gifted/inherited housing and other capital plays a huge role in the market ignoring that £200 billion a year is stupid - What is the size of the market? Where do you get your figures?

If house prices double, inherited and gifted wealth more or less doubles so affordability for that group is not impacted much by house price movements. - More or less? What about the skim for the government and all other interested parties?

The good news is if you are uk born with uk born parents the chances are quite high that you or your partner will inherit a house or the wealth to buy a house. For most uk born brits housing is free irrespective of the price

GreatApe

ukcarper wrote: »

Are people buying property where I am the market has almost come to a complete stop.

People move less frequently because of higher stamp duty taxes. The +3% not only hit landlords but also a lot of others too. Another factor is the higher taxes have both reduced landlords buying and also landlords selling the second part is almost forgotten about. Plus the flippers have gone, with all the additional taxes its a lot harder to buy a house do it up and sell it on

And some media reports that Phillip wants to add additional taxes onto second homes maybe by increasing the +3% to +5% which will just reduce transactions further

GreatApe

BikingBud wrote: »

Perhaps you could provide answers to my queries in red:

I am afraid I would just be wasting my time with you. If you are so sure of yourself and your ability why not prove me wrong rather than expect me to spoon feed you?

The idea is simple, capital exists and people use capital to buy housing and any discussion on the affordability or not of housing has to take into account capital stocks and flows and not just a simple wrong model of income vs price

If you disagree with my statement that around £10 trillion in net capital exists in the UK go disprove it. If you disagree with my statement that around £200 billion a year is transferred from old to not so old then go disprove it. And if you think this £10 trillion stock and £200 billion flow has no impact on housing and its affordability then I am wasting my time with you

BikingBud

Using National Stats:

Inheritance tax: Estates notified to HMRC: 2015-16


Total Number of deaths - 588,000
Number not taxed - 251, 000 ~42.6 %
Number taxed - 24,500 ~4.2%
Bear in mind only estates over £325000 were liable. So less than 10% of those estates accrue a tax liability, it does show how the wealth is distributed.

Your made up and generalised figures paint an altogether different picture.

78.4 % of 345 women surveyed found cement was good for their complexion if layered on before going to bed but removed by a dog licking their face before they woke up. On the other hand if they awoke and had to remove it themselves 65000 found they had more spots.

It's a fact!

BikingBud

GreatApe wrote: »

People move less frequently because of higher stamp duty taxes. The +3% not only hit landlords but also a lot of others too. Another factor is the higher taxes have both reduced landlords buying and also landlords selling the second part is almost forgotten about. Plus the flippers have gone, with all the additional taxes its a lot harder to buy a house do it up and sell it on

And some media reports that Phillip wants to add additional taxes onto second homes maybe by increasing the +3% to +5% which will just reduce transactions further

So does the 3% affect affordability or not?

ukcarper

GreatApe wrote: »

People move less frequently because of higher stamp duty taxes. The +3% not only hit landlords but also a lot of others too. Another factor is the higher taxes have both reduced landlords buying and also landlords selling the second part is almost forgotten about. Plus the flippers have gone, with all the additional taxes its a lot harder to buy a house do it up and sell it on

And some media reports that Phillip wants to add additional taxes onto second homes maybe by increasing the +3% to +5% which will just reduce transactions further

I'm talking about people who want to sell but can't there are fewer properties on the market and a lot of those aren't selling.