Brexit the economy and house prices part 6

Backbiter

Lornapink wrote: »

Look at the UBS report into the Brexit forecasts. It confirms pretty much all these forecasts rely on nothing but guess work and very rigid assumptions. Project Fear really is just nothing but guess work.

I looked for the report you referred to, but couldn't find it. Can you provide a link?

I did find this in the Telegraph from 3 SEPTEMBER 2018 :
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/09/03/economic-growth-already-2pc-lower-would-without-brexit-says/

The economy is already 2pc smaller than it would have been without a vote for Brexit, according to research by UBS released on Monday.

The bank’s calculations also estimate that investment is 4pc lower and consumption 1.7pc down.

Those figures aren't based on guess work but on what's happened since June 2016.

the size of the UK economy in 2016 was $2,629 billion

https://fullfact.org/economy/uk-worlds-5th-or-9th-largest-economy/

So a 2% reduction in size represents a yearly loss to the economy of $52.6 billion, which amounts to roughly £80billion in the two years since the Brexit vote.

Grim stuff, as I'm sure you'll agree.

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

Just so that we're clear about this, which groups' rights are being violated by the government? We already know that the rights of those who voted to leave the EU are being violated by the remainer government so no need to mention them.

Windrush And the other deportations. The disabled. Anyone being screwed over by DWP or Universal Credit or disability assessments. And all the people who take the UK gov to the ECJ and win.

Leavers rights aren't being violated by making sure we don't completely stuff the economy.

BobQ

Lornapink wrote: »

1) We carry on trading with Europe perfectly well, business soon adapts to whatever Brexit throws-up. As the boss of Next said on Marr today, bonded warehousing and such will ensure even a no-deal will be fine for UK-EU trade, everything will adapt.

I am sure we will adapt as he suggested. To provide balance, the programme pointed out that it was one thing for a clothing importer like NEXT that gets most of its stuff from non-EU countries and is merely inconvenienced by a delay in importing. Its quite another for those with complex supply changes that require just in time transfers of components across borders or those importing food which deteriorates in those bonded warehouses.

System

Herzlos wrote: »

Windrush And the other deportations.

That was an administrative !!!! up that was rectified.

The disabled. Anyone being screwed over by DWP or Universal Credit or disability assessments.

Care to explain how? Do you mean the work capability assessments introduced by Labour in 1998?

Loonie leftie rubbish.

Herzlos

Tarambor wrote: »

That was an administrative !!!! up that was rectified.

In Mays "hostile environment" I'm not so sure. There are still fairly regular stories about deportations.

Care to explain how? Do you mean the work capability assessments introduced by Labour in 1998?

They've changed since then, DWP/ATOS have clear targets to reject most claims, well over half of rejected claims overturned at appeal. Savage sanctions for almost anything causing a huge increase in deaths and food bank usage. The mess that is Universal Credit.

Loonie leftie rubbish.

I'm definitely a leftie but I'm not ashamed of caring about people.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/un-disabled-rights-uk-government-denounced-criticised-united-nations-austerity-policies-a7923006.html

Moby

BobQ wrote: »

I am sure we will adapt as he suggested. To provide balance, the programme pointed out that it was one thing for a clothing importer like NEXT that gets most of its stuff from non-EU countries and is merely inconvenienced by a delay in importing. Its quite another for those with complex supply changes that require just in time transfers of components across borders or those importing food which deteriorates in those bonded warehouses.

See this is the problem.......so many brexiteers don’t understand the issues they voted on. They didn't even consider how the importation of clothing would have different protocols to the importation of food. Even Wolfson acknowledged his ignorance on the issue to Marr.

Moby

Again how many Brexiteers foresaw the consequences for the Irish issue when they voted. Very interesting poll showing the attitude of Eire towards the border issues. Almost two thirds (61%) of Irish people would like to see Irish unification on the back of Brexit negotiations.

While just a quarter of the population (26%) believe that the Good Friday agreement should be altered to accommodate Theresa May’s Brexit negotiations.

Almost half of those polled believe that Brexit will result in a ‘hard’ border (47%), as Britain’s deadline to leave the EU looms.

https://news.paddypower.com/politics/2018/10/14/united-ireland-brexit-poll-pp/?AFF_ID=21488

gfplux

Moby wrote: »

I agree..... capitalism is broken!

I think that perhaps Democracy is broken

Herzlos

gfplux wrote: »

I think that perhaps Democracy is broken

I wouldn't say Democracy is broken, it works pretty well on the whole. The problem is that we allow Populism to override it on occasion. There's essentially no penalty for lying or diverting the Democratic process.

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

I wouldn't say Democracy is broken, it works pretty well on the whole. The problem is that we allow Populism to override it on occasion. There's essentially no penalty for lying or diverting the Democratic process.

It seems to be quite prominent now and the biggest offenders at moment are Labour from what I can see they are trying to buy everybody's votes from pensioners through students to unemployed.