US ($) Currency Thread 1 (closed - use thread 2)

inspector_monkfish

16:52 27Feb09: (GBP) A handful of UK data due on Monday

(GBP) The BoE publishes its Jan mortgage approvals and household credit data onMon, which we expect will likely show some stabilisation in both approvals and unsecured lending in particular. The CIPS Feb manufacturing sector PMI survey is due for publication also, but we look for evidence of a deterioration in activity in this sphere, from already low levels.

The BoE mortgage approvals volumes data for Jan should show a further pick-up, to 33K from 31K, slightly above the market consensus of 32K which would leave the impression that the pace of declines in housing market activity is stabilising, albeit at a low base and very well below its l-r average. This however won't be sufficient to halt the acceleration in house price deflation just yet. Lower official and swap interest rates are factors that should have supported the housing market in Jan, and even though there has been a resultant rise in the number of buyer enquiries, circumspect lending attitudes by lenders still prevail, as institutions persist with balance sheet restructuring. The demand for mortgages is clearly increasing as affordability improves on the back of lower house price/earnings ratios wrought by falling house prices, and cheaper rates for various mortgage products. But the supply of credit remains
severely restricted, thus crimping the level of activity in the housing market, with further house price declines in prospect. Jan net consumer unsecured credit should reveal a bit of a bounce, to GBP0.8bn, from GBP0.3bn in Dec, reflecting the recent firming of the s/t trend in retail sales growth. There is also likely to be a bounce associated with university student tuition fees borrowed at the start of the new term. But the trend should remain weak, at an average GBP0.6bn per month on a 3mma basis. We expect to see a deceleration in mortgage lending though, to GBP1.5bn, after the GBP1.9bn jump in Dec, marking a bit of a correction and reflecting ongoing evidence of a reluctance of lenders
to lend. It's own 3mma should edge higher for now, to around GBP1.4bn per month.

Separately, the Feb CIPS manufacturing sector PMI is forecast to show a
decline, to 34.6, from 35.8 in Jan, back towards its record low, as weak
domestic and global demand continue to force the scaling back of inventories, the recession tightens its grip, and firms can't get access to required credit.

The survey should show that as a result of deteriorating global demand, the weak GBP is not yet paying the kind of dividends that would be expected from a currency that's fallen 27% from its peak in Jan 2007, on a trade-weighted basis. We also expect to see evidence of a continued culling of jobs, following the wave of redundancy announcements made over the last couple of months, which in turn should undermine household confidence further down the road.

jackieblack

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

just trust me
i know stuff....

that's right, you said it would $1.50 by end of feb!

Hope everyone has a fab weekend1
see you all back here on Monday!

jackieblack

Morning All.....what's occuring?

haziec

Well the paper today said another cut in interest rates is soon. Is it this week anyone know and will it make any difference do you think??

jonathanrichardson69

its dropped almost a full cent already today, currently at 1.422

KayJ066

i got mine at the weekendn $1400 for £1018.00. not a bad deal i dont think! Now just to get packed and ready for next saturday!!

jonathanrichardson69

i don't go until the 4th may, married on the first, then 3 weeks in california. hopefully it will change by then. where did you get yours from Kay?

Housey80

I’m flying out this Saturday I’ve been leaving changing money as late as possible to try and get a better rate but look like I’ll be lucky to get anything over $1.4 with how things are going! Just trying to work out do I change now or try and hang on for a day or two and see how late I dare leave it to make sure I get the money in time?

Any ideas how late you can leave ordering money to get it posted or collect at the airport (flying from Manchester if it makes any difference)?

jonathanrichardson69

there is a company called thomas exchange global, they post out next day special delivery, usually quite good rates as well. or, alternatively you go to M&S or somewhere like that. http://www.thomasexchangeglobal.co.uk/ currently trading at 1.4

jonathanrichardson69

If anyone has any dollars left over, i'd be happy to take them off your hands for a decent rate, anything is better than 1.4