US ($) Currency Thread 1 (closed - use thread 2)

inspector_monkfish

Hope this helps explain what is going on.....


16:45 10Feb09 Cable hit lower through key support

16:44 GMT - [CABLE] has come under significant pressure as disappointment over the vagueness of the US stimulus package plan starts to hit ccy/Usd pairs across the board. Having earlier lost a grasp on the 1.4700/10 support, the pair has since fallen through the next 1.4590/00 support as bearish momentum picks up (note, Cable traded circa 1.4700 at the 4pm London close). Technical studies warn of a further retracement, potentially to reach the 1.4415/20 fibo (38.2% of 1.3500/1.4986 move) support area next. Cable trades 1.4595.

glenandemm

why would the american stimulas plan being a let down affect the pound though,shouldnt it make it stronger against the dollar?

photome

inspector_monkfish wrote: »

Hope this helps explain what is going on.....


16:45 10Feb09 Cable hit lower through key support

16:44 GMT - [CABLE] has come under significant pressure as disappointment over the vagueness of the US stimulus package plan starts to hit ccy/Usd pairs across the board. Having earlier lost a grasp on the 1.4700/10 support, the pair has since fallen through the next 1.4590/00 support as bearish momentum picks up (note, Cable traded circa 1.4700 at the 4pm London close). Technical studies warn of a further retracement, potentially to reach the 1.4415/20 fibo (38.2% of 1.3500/1.4986 move) support area next. Cable trades 1.4595.

In english what is that likey to mean over next day or so?

neilbond007

craptastic

pollypenny

Just got my dollars from a local who had bought a lot when the exchange rate was $2.03 to the £, and he needed to free up some cash.

We settled on $1.50, as the best rate today was Crown at $1.47.

Inspector Monkfish, I have been eagerly watching your figures all week. Thanks for all the advice. :T

inspector_monkfish

glenandemm wrote: »

why would the american stimulas plan being a let down affect the pound though,shouldnt it make it stronger against the dollar?

its a kind of 'flight to quality'
US stock markets are lower, people getting out of stocks and into Currency, hence they Buy USD.

also there is alot of 'buy the rumour, sell the fact' over the past few days. With Cable's rally up to 1.4980, there had to be some profit taking, so this is what we are seeing now. People were just waiting for the announcement at 4pm to unwind any positions they built up oiver the past few days.

could be choppy over the coming days, but i still believe we will see 1.50 soon. maybe not this week, but possibly by the end of the month (just my opinion)

keep the faith

inspector_monkfish

GBP is getting hammered ahead of the release of the Bank of England inflation report, and the ILO unemployment rate and Average Earnings figures to be released at 9.30am today.

Markets are nervous, maybe expecting figures to be worse than estimated.

Cable currently 1.4425

inspector_monkfish

GBP/USD: Weighed Down by Risk Aversion, Dow Closed Down 4.62%

[07:35 GBP/USD: Weighed Down by Risk Aversion, Dow Closed Down 4.62%] London, February 11. The pound has been hard hit by a rise in risk aversion spurred by disappointment about the lack of clarity in the $2 trillion US bank rescue plan outlined by US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner at 16:00GMT yesterday. Cable slumped to a low of 1.4456 in late NY trade yesterday--having been trading circa 1.4700 as the Geithner plan was unveiled, and extended south to a six-day low of 1.4398 in Asia today. The Dow closed down 4.62% yesterday (the Nikkei was closed today due to a Japanese holiday).

GBP/USD sell stops reportedly reside below 1.4398. Bear targets below include1.4366 (last Thursday"s base), 1.4323 (last Wednesday"s low), 1.4153 (Feb 3 floor) and 1.4052 (Feb 2 low).

The initial catalyst for sterling"s recent surge from 1.3548 (Jan 26 low)was
a 76% single-day rise in the Barclays share price. The pound continued to benefit from increased risk appetite through Monday this week, when GBP/USD scaled a one-month peak of 1.4986. Yesterday"s early Europe high was 1.4895.

Sell stops reportedly reside below 1.4400. Sub-figure bear targets include
1.4366 (last Thursday"s base), 1.4323 (last Wednesday"s low), 1.4153 (Feb 3 floor) and 1.4052 (Feb 2 low). 1.4568 was today"s Asian session top.

"So, just how bad will it be?" is the headline of an article by Edmund Conway in The Daily Telegraph (p17), re: the comment from UK cabinet minister Ed Balls that Britain faces its worst recession for 100 years.

UK unemployment and earnings data will be unveiled at 09:30GMT today.
Claimant count unemployment is forecast up 88k. The quarterly BoE Inflation
Report will be unveiled at 10:30GMT.

glenandemm

oh no just read these last few posts,i take it all the making up the pound did last week is about to be wiped,suddenly 1.50 looks far away again!

inspector_monkfish

ok, just before the 9.30 unemployment figures

cable trading at 1.4408