Prepping for Brexit thread

EachPenny

Goldiegirl wrote: »

Without being alarmist, it would be a good idea to Google 'Power supply after Brexit'. Some of our power does come from the EU.

To save people googling and to allay fears a bit it is worth putting this comment into context.

The UK is connected to France via a link with a 2000MW capacity and to the Netherlands by a link with a 1000MW capacity. For many people "2000MW" doesn't mean very much, but a more meaningful way to think of it is around the equivalent of one coal-fired power station.

Therefore if both the French and Dutch links are operating at maximum capacity importing electricity into the UK (they do operate in each direction as needed) then they are providing the equivalent capacity of one and a half coal-fired power stations.

Would anyone think our freezers were at risk if one or two of our coal-fired power stations were shut down?

There is a further newly constructed 1000MW link to Belgium which is in the final stages of being prepared for full operation. The contracts to build it were awarded in 2015 and were worth €500 million. Why would the experts of the UK and Belgian national grids have invested that much money pressing ahead building a project which would be redundant/unreliable post-Brexit? If there was a risk to ongoing electricity supplies from the EU to the UK then the investors would have ditched the project rather than press ahead.

The UK has two other undersea connections, each one of 500MW, with one going to Northern Ireland, and one going to the Republic. As well as some of our power coming from the EU, we also send power to the EU, and sometimes we are taking power from mainland Europe and sending it to RoI at the same time. Obviously if the EU stopped us receiving 'their' electricity then we would be very unlikely to export it to them if that meant people in the UK going without.

If anyone wants to understand our electricity supply better then there is an interesting site which shows real-time generation and import/export as a retro-style dashboard.
http://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
(The import/export information is on the lower row of dials on the right-hand side of the page. With the needle to the right of centre we are importing, to the left exporting. Check it at different times of day to see how much things change according to demand.)

Right now we are importing just over 2000MW (in total) from France/Netherlands, and exporting 500MW to each of the RoI and NI connections.

Goldiegirl wrote: »

I'm hoping for the best, i.e. an early spring so that the country is not consuming power like we did last March in the late winter.

You don't need to 'hope'.

As explained above, our reliance on the links is not that great. The Government have also entered into complex contracts with suppliers to provide standby power, and with large consumers (like industry) to shut down in the event that demand exceeds supply. These arrangements have been in place for years, and have nothing to do with Brexit. There's no need to panic. (and remember if you keep the door shut, food in the freezer will be fine for hours in the unlikely event of power cuts ).

Goldiegirl

EachPenny wrote: »

There's no need to panic.

Who said anyone was panicking?

it's all about making yourself aware of all eventualities.

[Deleted User]

The truth is we don't KNOW what's going to happen after the 29th March and all we can do is guess. Being a Jobes Comforter isn't going to help anyone and only looking at negatives will depress even the most optimistic of people if that's all we post. There may be problems, there may be supply logistic delays but if that's so then we're none of us helpless and we'll find ways to make what we can get into what we need. We may have to learn to need less but that's not going to kill us.
Scaremongering is demoralising, in the last war it was actually against the law to scaremonger and what the nation faced and had to cope with back then is 100 times worse than we're facing at the end of March.

Goldiegirl

You are right, we don't know what's going to happen.

As this is a prepping thread, we are all prepping for the worst and hoping for the best.

My approach is to be open about the potential negative aspects, and when you read the information that is out there, there is plenty that we need to be aware of, evaluate, and think about how we could be affected, or to dismiss if we don't think its appropriate for our own situation.

That is not 'scaremongering' - that's keeping your wits about you. If anybody thinks all the stories are scaremongering - why are they prepping for Brexit?

Unfortunately, a no deal Brexit will be a huge shock to the country, and I'm not comfortable to hide myself away from it.

I'd rather be fully aware of all the repercussions - even if it is depressing!

EachPenny

MrsLurcherwalker wrote: »

The truth is we don't KNOW what's going to happen after the 29th March and all we can do is guess. Being a Jobes Comforter isn't going to help anyone and only looking at negatives will depress even the most optimistic of people if that's all we post. There may be problems, there may be supply logistic delays but if that's so then we're none of us helpless and we'll find ways to make what we can get into what we need. We may have to learn to need less but that's not going to kill us.
Scaremongering is demoralising, in the last war it was actually against the law to scaremonger and what the nation faced and had to cope with back then is 100 times worse than we're facing at the end of March.

Exactly this. ^^^

There are some great tips and ideas on this thread, and they are all things that we could do with taking on board in our day to day lives. We (as a country) have become too reliant on others and doing everything 'just in time'.

I say that as someone who grew up in the countryside where we could get snowed in for days and had almost weekly powercuts from October to March. I was lucky to have grandparents who were farmers, or lived on their own means, who taught me and my parents how to plan and live quite comfortably without going shopping every day.

Those lessons took hold, and even though I've lived in towns and cities for the last 20 years, my cupboards always have a few tins of soup in them, my freezer is always full, and tucked away under the sink is a box of candles and a couple of lighters.

That's why I can also detect in this thread that some people have tipped the balance from being prepared over into what can only be called scaremongering. Hinting at risks which are negligible, and muddling things up so the situation looks much worse than it is.

As much as it takes weeks or months for a UK farmer to start producing more eggs, it would also take weeks or months for EU ones to cut production without facing huge loses.

Nobody has explained why the EU would stop selling us stuff, and loving the French farmers as much as I do, I know how angry they would be if their produce goes unsold because it cannot get to us in the UK.

Goldiegirl

EachPenny wrote: »

Nobody has explained why the EU would stop selling us stuff, and loving the French farmers as much as I do, I know how angry they would be if their produce goes unsold because it cannot get to us in the UK.

I don't think anybody on this thread has actually said this though?

I think the problem is, it's your own preconceptions making you think that's what people are saying.

This is a very strange thread.

We are all planning for a possible eventuality which is negative, but people don't like to talk about that very eventuality.

[Deleted User]

I've been around for a L O N G time, I was born just after the last war and rationing was in force until I was 5 so I remember it distantly, going to the shop for 1oz of sweeties was treat of the week. I lived in a rural village of some 500 people, no one except the local Insurance Man had a car, my dad cycled 15 miles to work and 15 miles back in all weathers on shift work. We lived a pretty good but simpler life than is normal today with much less available to buy in the shops than there currently is. We made the best of things, hand me downs went from family to family as kids grew out of clothes and the jumble sales in the church hall were cut throat for ladies clothes that could be made into something new to the buyer. We ate simpler meals that were usually meat or fish and two veg, lots of potatoes and veg and fruit in season. It wasn't a deprived life we were fed, clothed, the kids played out, there wasn't TV but there was radio and books and our toys. Grown ups had tea with each other in the afternoons and made cakes to go with it, there were whist drives, beetle drives, the cinema, local am dram and walks in the countryside surrounding us. It's not going to send us that far back but if it did? would a life that's simpler and more locally lived be such a disaster?

Until we actually know what we're going to have to live with if we leave the EU I'm not of the mind that everything is going to be negative, I'm looking on it a little like I'm looking on dying in the fullness of time, both are an unknown entity and both an as yet untraveled road I'm more curious than afraid in both cases, I'm looking at the journey to and through both happenings as a bit of an adventure, the last big challenge in the case of death when I'll find out if there is or isn't anything beyond it. Brexit is just another challenge along the way to be dealt with as well as I can so I'm not for giving up before I find what actually IS after it, I'm naturally optimistic by nature and because I've had plenty of knocks and ditches to climb out of in life I'm just not going to be scared of the future, I'll fight for the best I can make of it and count that an achievement to equal anything else I've ever done.

EachPenny

Goldiegirl wrote: »

I don't think anybody on this thread has actually said this though?

Well here's an example where I asked the question earlier in the thread:-

Honey_Bear wrote: »

Just checked out the situation regarding eggs. We are 86% self-sufficient, so expect there to be shortages in a No Deal situation.

Ask yourself why there would be shortages. It could only happen because either EU countries don't want to sell to us (and why would they do that?) or because the transport systems completely broke down so the eggs couldn't get to us.

(as I understand it though most of the imported egg is in liquid form used in manufacturing, not 'shell' eggs to be sold to consumers)

There is a good argument that fresh fruit and vegetables in the back of a truck held up at the port might go off, but we all know how long eggs stay fresh (especially if refrigerated) so why would a delay of one, two or even three days make any significant difference to the supply of eggs in the supermarkets to the extent it creates "shortages"?

Goldiegirl wrote: »

I think the problem is, it's your own preconceptions making you think that's what people are saying.

What 'preconceptions' do you think I might have?

Goldiegirl wrote: »

We are all planning for a possible eventuality which is negative, but people don't like to talk about that very eventuality.

I thought the problem - if there was one - is that people have been talking about the eventualities far too much.

Part of my job used to be dealing with civil emergency planning for a local council. Talking about the eventualities is good, planning for them is essential. But part of the process is about assessing what is a real threat, and what really doesn't matter, because if you invest all your money and energy in the wrong things then you have no ability to deal with any problems that do come along.

So a thread about prepping for Brexit is going to be of limited value for everyone if it gets clogged up with baseless speculation. Far better to 'keep it real' and look at the things we can do within our individual control.

maryb

Lots of people on this thread do seem to be taking an all or nothing approach and assuming that all our imports from the EU will simply stop/ be completely unable to get through. I think it is quite healthy to throw in the occasional reality check.

And French farmers have a habit of firing up their tractors and spraying manure where it’s not polite if they are pee’d off by, for example, being unable to get their produce to market. Think gilets jaunts on steroids. Besides which, there have been numerous dock workers strikes in France probably causing a comparable degree of disruption - the world didn’t end.


The power we import from the EU is supplied by private firms mostly under long term contracts. The only thing that would stop them continuing to supply us would be political pressure. Whilst I am sure Macron will gloat over any difficulties we encounter he is not going to engage in what would be an egregious act of bad faith verging on a hostile act

GreyQueen

I think the gilets jaunes might see Monsieur Macron off, rather than the other way around.


I imagine that the leaders of other Eurozone countries are having sleepless nights wondering if they can stop up leaving or make such an unholy mess of the process that we'll be awfully sorry we tried.


Very important to make a big mess to dissuade the populaces of other EU countries who are rather interested in leaving from pressing their politicians to do likewise.