Prepping for Brexit thread

melanzana

I have been following, and have put some aside.

Seems to me that many do not want to, or think it is daft.

But I have a week supply, that is it for me right now. Thanks for your advice.

EachPenny

Honey_Bear wrote: »

If there is No Deal we are going to be eating a lot of spider crabs and cuttlefish, because we won't be able to export our fish.

What about all that lovely Salmon growing in Scotland then? Do you really think that it will only be spider crabs and cuttlefish on the fishmonger's counter?

Honey_Bear wrote: »

I'm not sure how much meat we import so I'll just leave that there for people to think about how important meat is to them. I can't eat tinned meat at all, so either we'll go without or we'll expect to pay a lot more - increased demand for locally produced foodstuffs when imports aren't possible equals increased cost. The law of supply and demand. That's Economics 101.

Economics 101 is finding out the facts rather than guessing.

We import around 25% of our meat, but that includes all forms of import such as frozen chicken from Thailand and frozen lamb from New Zealand. Not forgetting the tinned meat of course.

But you've got things back to front. There is no reason why we wouldn't be able to import as much meat as we want, the problem will be trying to sell our meat into the EU if they decide to put up barriers to trade. That means if UK producers cannot export, whilst tariffs on imports are removed or lowered, the supply into the UK market will increase and prices will fall. The law of excess supply and demand. That's the correct Economics 101.

Honey_Bear wrote: »

We are not self-sufficent in dairy produce. No Deal means that there will be shortages of milk, butter, cream, yoghurt, cheese etc. The law of supply and demand again applies - if people aren't willing to change their eating habits very, very quickly indeed.

We are self-sufficient in milk (and cream). And again, there will be nothing preventing us importing dairy produce, the issue will be exporting into the EU.

Nobody needs to change their eating habits at all. (except for health reasons )

EachPenny

Goldiegirl wrote: »

Just to add to what Lizling,Well Preserved and Honey Bearsaid

The last time we were self sufficient in food was in the early part of the 19th Century, so that's two hundred years ago. When you bear in mind how much less agricultural and arable land there is now....

:huh: We have more arable land in production now than we did before the second world war. (see page 4)
researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN03339/SN03339.pdf

If you go back to the early part of the 19th Century, vast areas of the countryside were meadows used for nothing but the production of hay to feed horses - not just the horses on farms, but also the horses which served as the means of transport for everything from people to coal. In large areas of the country almost all of that meadowland has now been turned over to growing crops.

Goldiegirl wrote: »

....and how much our population has grown, it illustrates how reliant we are on produce from overseas.

Not really. Because you are ignoring the impact of yield increases on total production. In 1890 a farmer would be lucky to achieve more than about 0.9 tonnes per acre of wheat. Now the average harvest is about 3.25 tonnes per acre, so production has more than tripled. Or look at it the other way, the same total tonnage of wheat can be grown on one-third of the land.

What has changed, as you point out, is the population of the country.

We've also become fussier about what we eat (e.g. rejecting offal and dark chicken meat) and become more demanding for exotic food and the availability of seasonal produce all year round - much of which can only be met by importing.

We are also hooked on cheap food, much of it imported from countries where labour costs are much lower.

It is that which has driven our lack of self-sufficiency in food, and nothing to do with the acreages of farmland available.

Is it a Brexit problem? No, because leaving the EU doesn't stop us buying food from anyone willing to sell it to us.

EachPenny

Honey_Bear wrote: »

Just checked out the situation regarding eggs. We are 86% self-sufficient, so expect there to be shortages in a No Deal situation.

Why? Who is going to refuse to sell the UK eggs?

[Deleted User]

They say 'Hunger is the best sauce' and IF only IF there are shortages or limited supplies of fresh foods either home producer OR imported then all the fussiness over canned, dried, pickled, salted, preserved foods of all kinds will have to put aside for a while until production here in the UK is to a point where there is enough for the whole population either that or go hungry!

silvasava

Each penny - thank you for your well reasoned posts. Yes there will be adjustments being made but hunger will not be one of them. I'm sure Ronald McD has contingency plans lol

Farway

Goldiegirl wrote: »

My husband isn't keen on longlife milk, so I've been getting some milk powder in a standby.

For quite a few years now, I've been using Easi Yo yogurt satchets, so I've been ordering exact and making my order at shorter intervals, so we should be ok for yogurt for a little while.

I make my own yoghurt, but don't use East yo.

You could make bog standard by using any live yoghurt from any supermarket as a "starter"
Or buy some starter which last forever in freezer and you use a a spoonful or so from batch you made earlier to start the next batch

I do the latter, using initial starter from here https://bacillusbulgaricus.com/bulgarian-yogurt/

I use full fat UHT for the milk because it does not need "denaturing" [heating to 90F] before use

carrielovesfanta

Farway wrote: »

I make my own yoghurt, but don't use East yo.

You could make bog standard by using any live yoghurt from any supermarket as a "starter"
Or buy some starter which last forever in freezer and you use a a spoonful or so from batch you made earlier to start the next batch

I do the latter, using initial starter from here https://bacillusbulgaricus.com/bulgarian-yogurt/

I use full fat UHT for the milk because it does not need "denaturing" [heating to 90F] before use

I've made it in a thermos flask - just warm the milk to body temp, plop in some live yog (I've always used yeo valley). Stir and leave in the thermos overnight. Simples

Goldiegirl

Caramac wrote: »

Lakeland have an offer on the plain greek and natural yoghurt Easiyo sachets. Two boxes of six sachets for £20.

Thanks for the tip off, I'm going to buy a couple of boxes as this a really good price.

gettingtheresometime wrote: »

I've been recommended the savoury soya mince from Holland & Barrett...I have no idea if it is actually edible though lol

I've had a look at the H&B website, and I think it's a plus that it can be easily stored on the shelf. However, like you say, I wonder what it would actually taste like. I'm sure I would eat it if I had nothing else, but at this stage, I think I'm going to pass on this one!

However, 'food for thought' as they say!

Goldiegirl

Just a few comments on farming.

We haven't been self sufficient in food since the 19th century.

In fact, per the graph on here http://www.agr.kyushu-u.ac.jp/foodsci/4_paper_Colman.pdf our level of self sufficiency is similar to that of the 1870's, way before we got started demanding exotic produce all year round, so the issue is not new - it's been going on a long time.


However, I can't help thinking that all this chat about farming and egg production is missing the point.


In 53 days time we leave the EU. If (as is currently looking likely ) it's a no deal scenario, all the agreements, memberships and deals we have come to an abrupt end. A change of this magnitude is likely to create major upheaval in the short term, and probably in the medium term as well.

Anybody who has posted on this thread and is preparing themselves for Brexit, must already have bought into the belief that there will be numerous issues, not the least being disruption to the food chain.

However, there seems to be a marked reluctance to talk about this or even acknowledge this as a possibility.

It really is fine if you believe that the salmon producers will be able to up their production to make up for any shortfall in fish imports, or that the farmers will be able to up their production in 53 days in the middle of winter or that a glut of preserved items will appear to save the day. However, if you believe that - why are you prepping for a disastrous Brexit?

Furthermore, it's fine if you think it's OK to just 'survive', but the general British public is not ready for that, and they'll go crazy if the food they are used to is suddenly unavailable. It could turn unpleasant in a hurry.

On this thread we are all in contingency planning mode, but it still seems to me that the contingency we are planning for is not being fully acknowledged, maybe because it makes people feel uneasy?

I'll leave it here, as I have a few prepping tasks to do