House Price Crash Discussion Thread

abidan_2

dolce_vita wrote: »

How does that work then?


Pray tell us O magnificent one.

once again nastiness and misquoting! That comment was in my defence after i had been continuously misquoted and bullied!

geoffky

right the reason i will never let your words go unchallenged is because you are very dangerous people who have a interest in talking the market up. but what about the poor person who come on here looking for information as to whether slave themselves for the next 20 years to a mortgage and will get negative equity .if you are honest with yourselves you will see what is coming and if i can warn just one person about it i am happy.believe me i plenty of money(more than you can imagine) and i dont need to talk the market up but if it was going to rise i would be telling peole to buy but we are on the edge of one of the biggest drops ever,and if i can warn some poor guy about it i will. i hate people who are lying just so they can line their own pockets as it goes with snakes and slime..ask your local estate agent how busy they are then how frightened they are mine said "i have never ever seen a market so bad in my life" see i could go out and but a six bed tomorrow cash but i study markets and this market is finished as far as the bull run is concerned but when people come on here lying to try and get some poor sole to buy i will react,because if they wait they will be rewarded.i know you say but you said that in 2003 well i never did i was a bull right up to may this year then things changed just like the 18 year cycle say it would... but please dont lie to hide your fears,, tell people how the market really is and that is one hell of a scarey time for people who have a vested interest in it. i was with a financial adviser last week who works for the largest building society and he told me they where very very worried about the housing markets and its long term implications....the housing market gravy train is finnished so all the scum can get off now and go back to timeshare or second hand cars ...

geoffky

giblet dog i have just seen your post and you say house prices will never go down..how about last month >?????? good reasoning there,well done for your well thought out response...ha ha ha

thegibdog

geoffky wrote: »

giblet dog i have just seen your post and you say house prices will never go down..how about last month >?????? good reasoning there,well done for your well thought out response...ha ha ha

I presume you are addressing me? If you are, why don't you go back and read what I actually wrote and have a re-think.

geoffky

Credit squeeze piles on the pain

By Jim Pickard and Daniel Thomas in London
Published: December 3 2007 22:44 | Last updated: December 3 2007 22:44

The shadow of the property crash of the early 1990s is looming over the industry as deal volumes collapse to a third of their previous level and property funds take further drastic steps to prevent a liquidity crisis.
Deutsche Bank was the latest fund manager to alarm the sector as it told investors in its RREEF UK core real estate funds – worth £1.3bn – that they would have to wait up to a year to sell units.
EDITOR’S CHOICE

Property prices 'to fall further' - Dec-03


Schroders bucks commercial property trend - Dec-03


Valad set to make Teesland offer - Dec-04


Parkwood puts pressure on Gresham - Dec-03


Discover fuels UK credit concerns - Dec-04


Year end drives lending spike - Dec-03




Triton, a £2.3bn property unit trust run by UBS, is also invoking a similar 12-month waiting period whereby some investors could have to wait up to a year to leave.
Investors in Morley’s £1bn pooled pension property fund have also been informed that a redemption period of up to 12 months has been employed.
The credit squeeze has further damaged sentiment in a sector which was already looking high with property share prices falling consistently since the New Year.
The crisis of confidence in unlisted property funds comes against a backdrop of an under-lying market in which deal volumes have slumped as buyers struggle to get their hands on debt and confidence drains away.
The value of UK transactions for the fourth quarter is set to be about £5bn, according to an estimate by Jones Lang LaSalle, the global property advisers. That compares with £15bn in the third quarter and £18.6bn in the fourth quarter of 2006. Cushman & Wakefield, a rival agency, said it expected deals during the period to be at about a third of their level from the same time last year.
Martin Allen, analyst at Morgan Stanley, said: “We believe the sharp fall in confidence in the UK property market to levels only last seen in 1990 supports our view that the current downturn is more like 1989 than 1998.”
Experts believe the industry is in the middle of a 10-15 per cent price slump as the optimism of recent years gives way to unremitting gloom.
Capital values fell 1.9 per cent in October – the worst drop for 17 years – according to figures from Investment Property Databank. The historic data are likely to understate the true situation, where valuations are in freefall as buyers flee.
Norwich Union is preparing emergency plans to suspend redemptions in the UK’s largest commercial property fund, which was cut in value by 7 per cent in November, should investors continue to leave the sector.
The fund manager admitted on Monday that it was “preparing for every eventuality” for its flagship £3.6bn Norwich Property Trust, although it denied that there was any immediate prospect of a suspension of unit redemptions.
Tony Horrell, European chief executive of European capital markets at JLL, said the market was gripped with uncertainty.
He said: “Investors can either do nothing because of the banking stalemate or they want to do things but aren’t sure they want to jump in straight away because there could be further price changes.”
Last week saw a rare burst of activity when Royal Bank of Scotland at last sold the £1bn Citigroup tower in Canary Wharf, months after a deal was agreed and under different terms.
Tim Sketchley, chair of capital markets at Cushman & Wakefield, said pricing had fallen much more rapidly than in previous downturns.
Mr Sketchley said: “People who were buying in what was a very hot market are now very nervous.”


Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

boinging_2

Geoffky - Great post.

I am like you, sold out on a price agreed in May (sale completed August). Had a house lined up to purchase, but by the time it was ready to continue the market was not right to buy.

Any good investor would have bailed on property in the summer, as someone once sang "know when to hold, know when to fold". You can't win both ways (with stamp duty costs, interest rates on mortgage etc)...

I'm not an investor, I just can now get more for my money than I could in August and will get more for my money in August 2008 than I can now. It will be a family home and will be long term, but I can see that the property market is already falling and all indicators are pointing to this trend continuing.

geoffky

giblet here is what you posted
If everyone wants house prices to fall they will fall. Fact. Of course that will never be the case,

abidan_2

geoffky wrote: »

right the reason i will never let your words go unchallenged is because you are very dangerous people who have a interest in talking the market up. but what about the poor person who come on here looking for information as to whether slave themselves for the next 20 years to a mortgage and will get negative equity .if you are honest with yourselves you will see what is coming and if i can warn just one person about it i am happy.believe me i plenty of money(more than you can imagine) and i dont need to talk the market up but if it was going to rise i would be telling peole to buy but we are on the edge of one of the biggest drops ever,and if i can warn some poor guy about it i will. i hate people who are lying just so they can line their own pockets as it goes with snakes and slime..ask your local estate agent how busy they are then how frightened they are mine said "i have never ever seen a market so bad in my life" see i could go out and but a six bed tomorrow cash but i study markets and this market is finished as far as the bull run is concerned but when people come on here lying to try and get some poor sole to buy i will react,because if they wait they will be rewarded.i know you say but you said that in 2003 well i never did i was a bull right up to may this year then things changed just like the 18 year cycle say it would... but please dont lie to hide your fears,, tell people how the market really is and that is one hell of a scarey time for people who have a vested interest in it. i was with a financial adviser last week who works for the largest building society and he told me they where very very worried about the housing markets and its long term implications....the housing market gravy train is finnished so all the scum can get off now and go back to timeshare or second hand cars ...

I aint lying! I just dont agree with you! As i say we will just have to wait and see. i am not the one misadvising, in none of my posts have i advised anyone to buy or sell, i just state that i think in the LONG term property is a good investment, i never say anything other than that!

Please go back and read what has happened on here i posted approx 10 posts before i responeded to the nasty, patronising, chidlish comments and misquotes! I did nothing wrong but start to stick up for myself!

have you ever wondered if your telling people not to buy may be wrong! What if you are wrong, what if the market continues to rise, for christ ske it has only gone down for one month and thats DECEMBER! Wont you feel incredibly guily if someone doesnt buy based on your advice and the market continues to rise next year!!!!

abidan_2

thegibdog wrote: »

I presume you are addressing me? If you are, why don't you go back and read what I actually wrote and have a re-think.

theGibdog, surely you realise they misquote everyone on here, honestly save yourself the effort you wont win, just look at what they did to me, go back to page 15 and read, its laughable!!

thegibdog

geoffky wrote: »

If everyone wants house prices to fall they will fall. Fact. Of course that will never be the case,

Ok, I guess you need a quick lesson in logic. "If A then B" doesn't imply that "If Not A then Not B".

It will never be the case that everyone will want house prices to fall. This doesn't mean that house prices won't fall.