House Price Crash Discussion Thread

secondtoughest

In the last few years, prices were stable/rose as people were offered low interest credit. That isn't happening anymore.

So how can prices stay the same? In order for them to do this the banks will need to shell out. Can you really see that happening next year?

For me to get a mortgage, I would have no spare money to spend in the rest of the economy. As credit tightens, I would not be the only one. Less spending = less progressive economy. Prices would actually NEED to drop in order to keep the country spending.

abidan_2

codger wrote: »

My apologies: I've only just noticed your giggly post.:D

I don't have "a vested interest" in a fall in the values of UK house prices.

I do have "a vested interest" in a rise in the values of UK Society.

That's because I prefer the notion of an equal Society to an unequal one. A functional economy to a dysfunctional one. Responsible financial institutions to irresponsible ones. Competent governance to incompetent governance.

The reason for that is not because I'm a bleeding heart liberal, rather that it's been my experience that the economic consequences for a balanced Society are infinitely more attractive than the economic consequences for an unbalanced one.

I don't give a worm's tail for the fate of speculators and investors.

I do care about a house price / earnings ratio so absurd that the UK is now seeing the highest proportion of its wealth not being spent on products, goods and services which will help keep the wider economy healthy but which is instead going into repaying property debt -- and all the other debt that's occurred in consequence of that.

I do care about a widening socio-economic divide that has seen those who have nothing being progressively more and more disadvantaged by those who already had something being progressively more and more advantaged.

I do care -- passionately -- about individuals and families who through a malign conjunction of time and circumstance are unable to "get on the housing ladder".

And arising from that, I do care about a generational divide between those like myself who took it for granted that home ownership was an achievable consequence of following the work ethic, and those like my son and his friends who can now rightly be forgiven for looking at that ethic and thinking it's pretty darn hollow if the dispossessed stay dispossessed.

I do care about tomorrow, rather than all the yesterdays you keep looking for in your innumerable Google trawls.



With your girlish giggles, you will no doubt find that amusing. Feel free to have a laugh.

:rotfl: Sorry but it isnt me who started being, aggressive, abusive and laughing at other people! I just joined in with the fun! Its supposedly a free country where everyone is entiltled to an opinion and subjects are open to debate, that is unless you disagree with anyone on moneymoney supermarket forums that is!!! :rotfl: :T :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :T

geoffky

housing shortage .....oh that one ....well for the less informed there is not one ..why,, because we have at this moment over 1 million houses for sale on rightmove and a estimated 200,000 propertys lying empty and unused...end of argument .THERE IS NO HOUSING SHORTAGE... THERE IS A AFFFORDABLE HOUSING SHORTAGE,but for not much longer

abidan_2

geoffky wrote: »

housing shortage .....oh that one ....well for the less informed there is not one ..why,, because we have at this moment over 1 million houses for sale on rightmove and a estimated 200,000 propertys lying empty and unused...end of argument .THERE IS NO HOUSING SHORTAGE... THERE IS A AFFFORDABLE HOUSING SHORTAGE,but for not much longer

there is a housing shortage but not an apartment shortage! there are NOT enough 2 bed houses there are too many apartments! We are building less houses now than we were in the 50's its a fact, if you want me to post yet another link to the proof then i wil do!

geoffky

well here is what is happening in leeds people are losing £40,000 plus



What kind of city are we building?



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By [EMAIL="debbie.leigh@ypn.co.uk"]Debbie Leigh[/EMAIL]
LEEDS city skyline today is unrecognisable compared to 10 years ago.
High-rise blocks now provide 6,500 homes in the city centre. Another 2,000 are being built now, and a staggering 12,000 are in the pipeline.
But reports now warn that investment is drying up and that there will not be demand for the homes now being built.
Last month plans for the £100 million Green Bank development were scrapped. Developers blamed "the current uncertain market conditions for high-rise apartments in central Leeds"
Cash loss
Some city centre flat-owners are already looking at a loss of between £40,000 and £75,000 on homes they bought just three years ago.
Today the Yorkshire Evening Post launches a two-week series, City at the Crossroads. We will ask:
l Has Leeds moved too far, too fast?
l What price will we pay for the rapid pace of progress?
l Have enough controls been put in place to ensure we are creating a city of distinction that will stand the test of time?
l Has the rush to satisfy demand from investors created a city without a soul?


THE Yorkshire Evening Post's City at a Crossroads series will uncover the truth about city living in Leeds and the risks and opportunities it presents.
We will examine issues such as how buy-to-let investors have affected the market; why people choose city life; how Leeds compares to other cities and whether the focus on city-centre development has been at the expense of existing communities.
At the end of the fortnight we will deliver our manifesto on the direction Leeds must take to ensure its continued success.


ONCE regarded as nothing more than a grey industrial town, Leeds has bloomed into a sophisticated nerve centre for business and pleasure.
The transformation began in the early 90s with much-needed investment in the city's historic fabric, reviving the shabby, neglected Corn Exchange and Victoria Quarter and turning them into stunning retail centres.
Briggate was pedestrianised and the 20th century city-living pioneers turned empty spaces above shops into homes, kickstarting the rejuvenation of the heart of Leeds.
£100m was spent on cleaning up the River Aire, at that time one of the most polluted waterways in the country – now a sought-after living area. The creation of Millennium Square followed, along with the opening of high-quality hotels, a glut of top restaurants and the arrival of cafe culture.
The boom in city living has seen dozens of buildings converted into homes and the creation of thousands of new flats.
Dr Kevin Grady, director of Leeds Civic Trust – whose aims include encouraging high standards of design, architecture and town planning – said some of the new buildings simply weren't of a high enough standard for a city with such golden aspirations.
He said: "We are having a very rapid period of change, with lots of buildings springing up all over the place, particularly in the context of city living.
"Are those buildings of quality?
"Are some of them blighting the cityscape?
"Has it gone too far?"
Experts have warned that the housing supply in Leeds city centre could soon outstrip demand and that's not the only concern.
Dr Grady said: "The question at the moment is in terms of city amenities. Why don't we have a new modern concert hall, an arena, a conference centre, an exhibition centre?"
Other key worries include provision of convenience shops, green and open spaces, community centres, and essential services like doctors and dentists, most of which have yet to materialise despite the ever-increasing numbers of city-centre inhabitants.
Dr Grady said: "The question at the moment is about the ability of everyone in the city to deliver the city that we want. We are at a crossroads and if we address these things the city will go forward very positively, if we don't we will store up difficulties.
"So far the city has done pretty well but there are some issues that need sorting out."
After more than a decade of striving for success Leeds is now hovering on the edge.
If it's handled with care it could develop into a city with so much more to offer; without proper planning interests, right through into the next decade it could mean dreams of becoming a truly inspiring European city are snatched away.


MORE than 4,000 home-owners will lose money by selling their Leeds city centre flats, according to a property expert.
Andrew Wells, of Allsop, the country's biggest residential auctioneers, warned that the sale of around half the apartments in the heart of the city – those completed and currently under construction – would leave sellers thousands of pounds out of pocket.
He said a two-bedroom flat in one of the earliest residential developments, Aspect 14, on the outskirts of the city centre, was bought for between £160,000 and £190,000 around three years ago but was recently auctioned for just £115,000.
Mr Wells, who works in Allsop's Leeds office, said: "Anybody who bought their flat off-plan before 2005 has probably got a paper profit.
"Prices in 2002, 2003, 2004 and some bits of 2005 were still below what they are today. Anybody who has bought between 2005 and now is probably looking at paper loss."
He estimated that figure was around 4,350 people.
Allsop, which has offices in London and Leeds, reports that out of 450 lots in a recent sale 45 per cent were repossessions after owners defaulted on mortgage payments.
Around half of those were buy-to-let investment properties.
Mr Wells said Leeds was by no means a blackspot for repossessions but "a lot of people have said that the city centre living thing is overheated now".
He said one owner had lost £85,000 on an Aspect 14 flat in 18 months, while others had seen the value of their homes in the tower block fall from £189,000 to £131,000 in two-and-a-half years.
Most of the last 10 sales in the block have seen significant losses.
Oversupply
And at City Island, Gotts Road, flats have sold for up to £50,000 less than they were bought for.
Figures from the Land Registry show that average property prices for flats in the LS12 area, which includes City Island, peaked at £190,425 between April and June 2006, then plummeted to £88,899 between January and March this year, although that figure climbed back up to £139,785 between April and June.
Mr Wells said the problem was caused by oversupply. It is well-known that the buy-to-let market has driven property development in Leeds from the beginning.
Investors have been happy to buy homes "off-plan" – before they've been built – as they were confident they would make a profit from renting them out or from selling them when complete.
But because many buildings were aimed at tenants rather than owner-occupiers – who demand higher standards because they know what they want from a home – issues like views, location and room size have frequently been given less consideration.
And with everyone vying to keep costs down to push profits even higher, architectural quality has often fallen by the wayside – a result of so-called "value engineering"– leaving Leeds with a collection of identikit
blocks of terracotta tiling and steel cladding.
Because of this they are more likely to appeal to those hoping to make profits from property and tenants only planning to live there short-term, rather than owner-occupiers.
Mr Wells said the problems came when the flats were finished and everyone tried to sell them at the same time.
They found they couldn't get the price they paid because the market was flooded.
Sue Howarth, associate director in the residential team of DTZ estate agents, Leeds, was slightly less pessimistic about the fate of city centre flat owners but agreed more recent buyers were unlikely to make any money. She said: "There will certainly be a few people who lose out.
"Maybe 25 per cent would lose money, the other 25 wouldn't make any profit."
She said it was down to supply outstripping demand, coupled with the fact that the housing market has recently stagnated.

geoffky

there is a shortage of people being unable to affford ..... no buyer no seller simple really not hard to understand is it ? over 1 million sellers sorry no shortage, is rightmove wrong???????

codger

abidan wrote: »

:rotfl: Sorry but it isnt me who started being, aggressive, abusive and laughing at other people! I just joined in with the fun! Its supposedly a free country where everyone is entiltled to an opinion and subjects are open to debate, that is unless you disagree with anyone on moneymoney supermarket forums that is!!! :rotfl: :T :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl: :T

Abi:

I can wholeheartedly assure you that I have no wish to disagree with you on the Money Money Supermarket Forum.

Disagreeing with everything you say on this forum's bad enough.

abidan_2

<quote>

Why you need an entire website to convey a single sentence escapes me.

Me, I think you'd do your website readers a favour by qualifying that along the lines of "because at best, it'll show no growth, at worst, prices will fall and equity values diminish." But hey. It's your website.

</quote>

Codger you must be daft, if you actualy looked at my website its not al about property infact thats just a fifth of what its about! Fool!

It appears you arent even properly reading my posts at all, oh but that thats cos it isnt what you want to read or hear! PMSL Your taking from them what you want. You are obvioulsy an old man who set in his ways and who doesnt like to hear anything but his own view. If you aint an old man you certainly come across that way. Let others have a say. I will say once again. I was never aggressive, until i started defending myself against others being nasty on this site. Please once again respect my opinion!

What ever happens to the housing market doesn't bother me particularly, if or down or stagnent in the near future, as i kee repeating it always goes up in the long term! Everyone deserves a peice unfortunatley as i say once again when we joined eurpoe and opened our doors that change the whole future of the housing market in this country. More and more people want to live and work in Britain, without going into the in's and outs of it, that alone will more than likely maintain property prices!

As i say once again, i feel for those who are not on the ladder, but maybe can i just point out that it is only us herein Britain that has this property fetish, we only have ourselves to blame. people tend not to own houses in France and Germany and many otehr European countires, perhaps we are just going down that root were most people will be renters in the future? perhaps Britain will move on from its massive desire to own property for security and proof of wealth! ? ! Debate, don't slag!:rolleyes:

abidan_2

geoffky wrote: »

there is a shortage of people being unable to affford ..... no buyer no seller simple really not hard to understand is it ? over 1 million sellers sorry no shortage, is rightmove wrong???????

Read your own article! I said way back on this forum when i first joined that we wil probably see a completely different problem with the housing market! yes there is an over supply of apartments and flats and people dont want these either, they WANT houses and there are not enough houses! Your article is saying there are too many flats for a start, yes i know prices of flats have falen, it does not mean the prices of 2 bed houses are falling, infact as a senior mortgage underwriter my husband can value our houses against REAL house price sales at work (for a major BANK) and they have not fallen in fact they have risen! So what on earth is goin on there then? I dont disagree that flats are falling, i know they are in leeds, i know people who have them, but 2 bed houses are what people want and they are hlding there price!

geoffky

infact as a senior mortgage underwriter my husband can value our houses against REAL house price sales at work (for a major BANK)

i can see now why you are so scared about all this ,well it looks like the all jobs going in the banking and city might be getting a few people worried ,this is the root of it all ,you are scared of the falls ,dont worry in the last round of job losses in the city the divorce rate went mental, most wives of the inv bankers got to know their husbands for the first time and found out they had nothing in common. as the 7 to 9pm workday is hard to replace and you find most of them miss the adrenlin rush most of all...