House Price Crash Discussion Thread

RatBag_2

And.... back to house prices. :-)

I observed that EVERY stakeholder involved in property has a vested interest in house prices going up:

* Estate agents earn bigger fees.
* Banks earn more interest, and have higher capital security in the event of a default.
* Property owners have capital appreciation, and larger security to lend against.
* Fund managers make easy money investing in this sector.
* Government gains more tax revenue, from stamp duty, council taxes, etc.

The media are in on it, and have a vested interest in house prices going up, the surveyors too, the banks, everyone is out to make you pay more for your properties.

Will we ever hear a sustained media campaign informing us of a continual house price decline? (not just small downward blips as we hear so far...)

avisccs

Indeed. These make me think whether the raise is true or they are just hoping to make buyers hand over the cash.
I personally still feel that with the high unemployment rate and lack of confidence to borrow, the market is more likely to be flat, probably rise about 1% because of what the media did.

As a potential buyer of a relatively cheap house, I don't really care about 1% rise on house prices, but a sign of increasing interest rate is not good.

doire_2

avisccs wrote: »

Indeed. These make me think whether the raise is true or they are just hoping to make buyers hand over the cash.
I personally still feel that with the high unemployment rate and lack of confidence to borrow, the market is more likely to be flat, probably rise about 1% because of what the media did.

As a potential buyer of a relatively cheap house, I don't really care about 1% rise on house prices, but a sign of increasing interest rate is not good.

Can to explain why?

nembot

Only the people and/or companies with something to lose, are flogging the dead horse repeatedly.

Realisation is on it's way...

avisccs

doire wrote: »

Can to explain why?

Because 1% rise on house prices means about 1,200 pounds for me. For every pound I borrow, I will have to pay more than 1.5 pounds back to the lender at current interest rate... and if interest rate rises I will have to pay more. The problem is that the interest rate is likely to rise more than just 1%. >_<

In another words, 1% increase in interest rate will cost me more per month than 1% increase in house prices.

MiserlyMartin

chucky wrote: »

right... do we take notice of a annoymous amatuer economist on an internet forum or do you do your own research

Ok heres a bit of research: (Just a bit)

prices 'have further 17pc to fall'

The recent rises in house prices will prove to be a false dawn because of the broader problems facing the British economy, Fitch Ratings said yesterday.


By Angela Monaghan
Published: 10:34AM BST 08 Oct 2009
Comments 43 | Comment on this article

Photo: AP


The ratings agency predicted that house prices in Britain would fall by around 30pc in total from the October 2007 peak, indicating that they have a further 17pc left to fall. The current average house price of £162,000 is 13pc lower than that peak, Fitch said.
Rising unemployment, which will peak next year and remain at that level into 2011, as well as a low wage inflation and poor credit availability, will drag on house prices, the report said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/6271517/House-prices-have-further-17pc-to-fall.html

chucky

MiserlyMartin wrote: »

Ok heres a bit of research: (Just a bit)

prices 'have further 17pc to fall'

The recent rises in house prices will prove to be a false dawn because of the broader problems facing the British economy, Fitch Ratings said yesterday.


By Angela Monaghan
Published: 10:34AM BST 08 Oct 2009
Comments 43 | Comment on this article


The ratings agency predicted that house prices in Britain would fall by around 30pc in total from the October 2007 peak, indicating that they have a further 17pc left to fall. The current average house price of £162,000 is 13pc lower than that peak, Fitch said.
Rising unemployment, which will peak next year and remain at that level into 2011, as well as a low wage inflation and poor credit availability, will drag on house prices, the report said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/borrowing/mortgages/6271517/House-prices-have-further-17pc-to-fall.html

oh dear Miserly - all that time on HPC.co.uk hasn't taught you very much has it

but at least it's taught you how to cherry pick information.
you get a well done for that :T



house prices will go up - they will come down at some point and then they'll go up. get over it.
your one man (multi ID) hope mission is getting boring now :eek:
i don't believe house prices will rise but i'll leave it you and your one-man mission to campaign that they'll fall 70%

nearlynew

This time next year, prices will be lower than they are now.

100% guaranteed.


there is no money to support a rise in prices.

IveSeenTheLight

nearlynew wrote: »

This time next year, prices will be lower than they are now.

100% guaranteed.


there is no money to support a rise in prices.

How long will you be giving out this gaurantee?
Do you guarantee they will be lower YoY in February?

June 09 http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=22244365&postcount=31

July 09 http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=23751375&postcount=3

July 09 http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=23752095&postcount=7

July 09 http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=23785429&postcount=2

July 09 http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=23807229&postcount=12

July 09 http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=23780907&postcount=13

Aug 09 http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=23944911&postcount=18 (No gaurantee though )

Aug 09 http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=24517839&postcount=22 (Again no gaurantee )

Aug 09 http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=24623957&postcount=139 (Will he apologise to Dan in 3 weeks time )

Sept 09 http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=25232545&postcount=15 (No gurantee but reckons will be YoY Lower next year and the year after)

Sept 09 http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=25430103&postcount=23 (back to gauranteeing )

As Jiminy Cricket used to say "And there's more"

P.s maybe you should put the gaurantee into your signature.
It'll save a lot of typing

Tashina

may we know your theory?will it necessary for us?