HPC are having a mass breakdown

triathlon

HILARIOUS


1. Land registry showing prices increasing again
2. FTB's increasing
3. Recent data showing the UK economy more robust than predicted.
4. Immigration still 300,000 plus, and likely to remain so for several years

My predictions have been more bullish than most, but even I have sounded pessimistic compared to the reality of today's housing market. HPC.com's more militant posters are now starting to turn on each other with once crash predictors now having second thoughts and then being attacked for being trolls, it's hilarious:rotfl::rotfl:

I have a new prediction, HPC will have fewer than a dozen members by end of next year

If the majority of HPC.com have now given up on the prospect of a crash then 2018 is going to be a far better year than even I imagined:)

lisyloo

Overall I agree

Immigration still 300,000 plus

ONS say 230,000 year ending june 2017
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/november2017

That still means a lot of people coming.

westernpromise

As I have observed before, HPC is basically the opposite of MSE. Where MSE advocates husbanding your cash carefully, seeking out value, and reflecting carefully on financial commitments, HPC in contrast treats the biggest financial decision you'll ever make as a massive short speculative punt and then gets angry when it blows up. Thus houses bad, bitcoin good.

The rationale for this is ranting and hearsay from angry loonies on the internet.

It's like Broadmoor, only the crimes are against thrift rather than against people. If the Stockwell Strangler had an opinion on house prices, he'd share it there, not here. There can be no worse place on the internet to visit to discuss money.

triathlon

westernpromise wrote: »

As I have observed before, HPC is basically the opposite of MSE. Where MSE advocates husbanding your cash carefully, seeking out value, and reflecting carefully on financial commitments, HPC in contrast treats the biggest financial decision you'll ever make as a massive short speculative punt and then gets angry when it blows up. Thus houses bad, bitcoin good.

The rationale for this is ranting and hearsay from angry loonies on the internet.

It's like Broadmoor, only the crimes are against thrift rather than against people. If the Stockwell Strangler had an opinion on house prices, he'd share it there, not here. There can be no worse place on the internet to visit to discuss money.

I mean this with total sincerity, we all know Crashy is a HPC'er on here, and I am sure he is not the only one. My advice to Crashy and I know he will never admit to any kind of financial crisis because of this waiting for a property crash, is to play devils advocate and just pretend that he has some inside information convincing him that a crash will not happen.
What is his plan B, how can he move forward after a such a bad call, come crashy just play along. I bet you of the original HPC cult that if they could go back in time at least 99% would not make the same call again.

westernpromise

triathlon wrote: »

I bet you of the original HPC cult that if they could go back in time at least 99% would not make the same call again.

Bear in mind that all HPCers think two completely contradictory things.

1/ Buying now is the worst time to buy
2/ Buying at any time in the past was completely riskless

and they entertain a key assumption

3/ buying a house is always a financial speculation.

At all points in the last 20 years, crashtrolls have thought buying at that time was complete folly because a crash was imminent and indeed overdue. They gurgled with derision at the mugs who bought in 1996, 2007, 2012, 2017, etc, who were all sure to lose their shirts, the greedy sheeple chancers.

Crashtrolls also insist, however, that owners who bought in the past took absolutely no risk at all and don't deserve their speculative gains. It was always certain that house prices would rise and existing owners basically took a surefire bet which couldn't possibly go wrong and they knew that at the time. They didn't buy because it looked better than renting, they did so to speculate and to deny HPCers a house.

At all points in the past, therefore, it was both a bad time to buy and a perfect time to buy.

Given this neurosis around buying, it's clear that no HPCer will ever have the cojones to buy nor recognise that to do so takes cojones.

triathlon

westernpromise wrote: »

Bear in mind that all HPCers think two completely contradictory things.

1/ Buying now is the worst time to buy
2/ Buying at any time in the past was completely riskless

and they entertain a key assumption

3/ buying a house is always a financial speculation.

At all points in the last 20 years, crashtrolls have thought buying at that time was complete folly because a crash was imminent and indeed overdue. They gurgled with derision at the mugs who bought in 1996, 2007, 2012, 2017, etc, who were all sure to lose their shirts, the greedy sheeple chancers.

Crashtrolls also insist, however, that owners who bought in the past took absolutely no risk at all and don't deserve their speculative gains. It was always certain that house prices would rise and existing owners basically took a surefire bet which couldn't possibly go wrong and they knew that at the time. They didn't buy because it looked better than renting, they did so to speculate and to deny HPCers a house.

At all points in the past, therefore, it was both a bad time to buy and a perfect time to buy.

Given this neurosis around buying, it's clear that no HPCer will ever have the cojones to buy nor recognise that to do so takes cojones.

Don't get me wrong western, I am also on the side that says property is well over valued in just about every corner of the UK. But that does not take away the fact that the demand for the shortage for UK property is huge.. I remember run down new build areas in the 1990's that people who not touch with a barge poll, now they are exclusive areas.

I would not pay £5000 for a loaf of bread in today's circumstances, but I would if I went hungry and was without food for a week.
Was also speaking to a Tory councillor from south London over Xmas along with an ex Tory councillor from Herts area, after listening to them I am now convinced that this government has no intentions of a mass new build in the UK whether we need it or not

GreatApe

House prices outside of London are far too cheap. I think average UK prices exc London could double from 2015-2025

Even in Germany with massive supply vs the UK the median house price in Berlin is double that of Birmingham. Birmingham and most the UK is undervalued

£120,000 for a three bed terrace
You couldn't build a new house for that
You are getting the land the utilities for free


My guess is outside London property has entered a bull run.
Most the country had a 30% real term hpc between 2007-2017 despite population up about 5 million and record low build rates

Assuming no brexit induced recession and no corbyn Communism/high-taxes.

vivatifosi

I don't understand the obsession with HPC, or it's obsession with here. MSE is a huge website, HPC is a tiny backwater in a dark and dusty corner of the internet.

If people from here didn't routinely go over there to see what they were up to, their numbers would drop off a cliff.

Why perpetuate it?

Arklight

Hmm. There are some interesting threads on this forum hpc.co.uk

Jeremy Paxman is slating the boomers for stealing their children's wealth! :eek:

Another thread explains that the boomers have voted in subsidies for themselves at the exclusion of younger generation who must then work in low paid and precarious roles to fund them!

:eek::eek:

I have not heard such views of the boomers before and wonder if others hold these views?

:eek::eek::eek:

lisyloo

I don't understand the obsession with HPC, or it's obsession with here.

There is some value in considering their views, but I also don't understand the obsession.
I feel some pity and don't revel in their mistakes and don't see the need for the obsession.

Lornapink

westernpromise wrote: »

Bear in mind that all HPCers think two completely contradictory things.

1/ Buying now is the worst time to buy
2/ Buying at any time in the past was completely riskless

Terrific observation!
I've know a couple of these types, what seems to compel them is this overwhelming sense of grievance that ordinary Joe's with none of the economic insight's the wise crashers posses, have somehow against all known spread-sheet wisdom, bloody well prospered