Market state for selling

Crashy_Time

10k drops might not cut it at this stage? You never know though.....

51mm5

How much should it be dropped by Crashy?

MobileSaver

poppy10 wrote: »

£10k. Was £340,000, reduced ... in the last 7 days

Crashy_Time wrote: »

10k drops might not cut it at this stage? You never know though.....

I think this could be a defining moment in the collapse of the HPC cult.

After years of narcissistic claims that a 50% price crash was imminent and necessary to make property affordable again, one of the most brain-washed followers has admitted that a mere 3% price drop could be enough to entice a buyer...

Crashy_Time

51mm5 wrote: »

How much should it be dropped by Crashy?

About 80k, at least.

51mm5

Crashy_Time wrote: »

About 80k, at least.

How did you arrive at that figure?

Crashy_Time

51mm5 wrote: »

How did you arrive at that figure?

I assumed that many people are wildly optimistic about how much their house is worth.


https://www.ft.com/content/86fa173c-01fe-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5

PokerPlayer111

Im pretty bearish on housing for the coming years and find it hard at times sinking money into housing. The only reasons to seems to be 1.)we all have to live somewhere 2.)its a financial hedge. 3.)better control vs renting in some ways

Some general thoughts (some vague) which make me bearish:

The way i see it there isn't a housing crisis, housing crisis term is used to pump the housing bubble, there seem to be plenty of homes for number of people in the country total.

Those figures of we need X amount of homes per year but we only built X this year are short sighted ? Statistics show people are having less children now, we just did brexit so should keep population in the country down a little? no other reason to think population rates will grow fast in UK. The predictions for total number for humans on the planet ever aren't vastly above the current total population. The figures i looked at a few years back seems like we had enough housing anyway for total people.

Some other things that make me bear = technology always improving means housing easier and easier to build (also will become easier to build up or in different areas).

When people give bull case they start talking all about interest rates and bank rates, this and that. The banks and mainstream in general are losing the power to control like before, it wont really matter what banks or gov do at some point in our lifetimes, they wont be able to control housing market anyway.

I know some of these points are vague but im like 80% bear and 20% bull so never felt the need to think it out futher.

Crashy_Time

PokerPlayer111 wrote: »

Im pretty bearish on housing for the coming years and find it hard at times sinking money into housing. The only reasons to seems to be 1.)we all have to live somewhere 2.)its a financial hedge. 3.)better control vs renting in some ways

Some general thoughts (some vague) which make me bearish:

The way i see it there isn't a housing crisis, housing crisis term is used to pump the housing bubble, there seem to be plenty of homes for number of people in the country total.

Those figures of we need X amount of homes per year but we only built X this year are short sighted ? Statistics show people are having less children now, we just did brexit so should keep population in the country down a little? no other reason to think population rates will grow fast in UK. The predictions for total number for humans on the planet ever aren't vastly above the current total population. The figures i looked at a few years back seems like we had enough housing anyway for total people.

Some other things that make me bear = technology always improving means housing easier and easier to build (also will become easier to build up or in different areas).

When people give bull case they start talking all about interest rates and bank rates, this and that. The banks and mainstream in general are losing the power to control like before, it wont really matter what banks or gov do at some point in our lifetimes, they wont be able to control housing market anyway.

I know some of these points are vague but im like 80% bear and 20% bull so never felt the need to think it out futher.

Low interest rates are all that is stopping a crash now, the supply and demand nonsense was only ever about selling loans to gullible people IMO.

51mm5

Crashy_Time wrote: »

I assumed that many people are wildly optimistic about how much their house is worth.

https://www.ft.com/content/86fa173c-01fe-11e8-9650-9c0ad2d7c5b5

Why don't you tell me how "you" calculated it out rather posting an irrelevant link. Are you familiar with the area or done an research into it?

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Low interest rates are all that is stopping a crash now, the supply and demand nonsense was only ever about selling loans to gullible people IMO.

I think you're going to be disappointed. You've been calling for a crash for over 10 years but what is a crash in your eyes in % terms?

Your raised interest rates theory is flawed and does translate into a massive price fall everywhere. Throughout the era of ultra low interest rates house prices across the U.K. in some regions has fallen and some have surged massively so how do you explain the effects of interest rates there. Even if rates rose i doubt they are going to be raised to the moon as TPTB will not want that on their watch. If rates did rise I doubt it will be rapid, so practically, house owners will have time to reorganise their finances, I mean look at the last rate rise, it hardly had a massive impact. You also have many owners locked into fixed rates and looking at the products on the market you can get the same if not better deals prior to the last rate rise.

Crashy_Time

51mm5 wrote: »

Why don't you tell me how "you" calculated it out rather posting an irrelevant link. Are you familiar with the area or done an research into it?



I think you're going to be disappointed. You've been calling for a crash for over 10 years but what is a crash in your eyes in % terms?

Your raised interest rates theory is flawed and does translate into a massive price fall everywhere. Throughout the era of ultra low interest rates house prices across the U.K. in some regions has fallen and some have surged massively so how do you explain the effects of interest rates there. Even if rates rose i doubt they are going to be raised to the moon as TPTB will not want that on their watch. If rates did rise I doubt it will be rapid, so practically, house owners will have time to reorganise their finances, I mean look at the last rate rise, it hardly had a massive impact. You also have many owners locked into fixed rates and looking at the products on the market you can get the same if not better deals prior to the last rate rise.

Yep, glad we agree. What is flawed is thinking that low emergency rates will have an equal effect everywhere, they allowed massive bubbles to flourish (London) and lesser bubbles (North of England for example) not to collapse to the level they would have if economic forces had been allowed to run their course.