Market state for selling

cypher007

loose the online agent.


I really hate EA's but I tried an online agent back in 2006, not a single viewing in 6 months. went with agent had probably 3 in the first week.

MobileSaver

cypher007 wrote: »

loose the online agent ... I tried an online agent back in 2006,

Terrible advice (and spelling!) The whole world has moved on from over a decade ago! Every single person I know who has bought a property in the last few years has searched online at some point during their property search.

I sold one of my properties via an online EA around 6 years ago, had loads of viewings, sold at top whack and saved literally thousands of pounds compared to using a High Street EA.

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

Housing stock value is around 6 trillion, with mortgage debt around 1.4 trillion. There is still a lot of equity in the UK housing market. Your right people do care about the price of their house, a 20% drop is highly unlikely and even if it did as long as their mortgage stayed the same and was affordable its really not an issue. You need high unemployment and relatively high interest rates to get forced sellers to see a sustained house price crash. Interest rates are still at historic lows and employment is at a high. Everyone likes to think they are now worth more because their house has increased in price but they are hardly going to panic if it drops a little, it only really matters when you come to sell.

It stands to reason that if there are 20% price drops people`s mortgages won`t "stay the same", because the drop will be due to higher interest rates?

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

Yeah because you understand markets and bubbles, I mean in 2014 you were bleating on about the same rubbish saying a crash is coming now... Your still waiting... You need to understand housing in the UK is like a religion, even if prices go down there is so much pent up demand those that are currently priced out will dive in as soon as they can afford. Unless we see forced sales which will need to see high interest rates and high unemployment the massive crash you seem obsessed with just wont happen... Add to that what ever party is in power would pile in billions to stop that happening and given the current public backlash on the banking sector it is unlikely there would be a huge appetite for mass repossessions.

2016 saw repossessions of just 7,700, in the crash of the 90s it was 10 times that amount. At the moment although house prices have gone up they are still affordable, maybe not for everyone and obviously not for you (hence the chip on your shoulder), but when you dont have enough housing stock it is inevitable that prices will be driven up and some people will lose out, its supply and demand, just like the highest demand is in the south east so the south east has the highest prices.

Wrong. House prices are driven by global credit conditions, change those and house prices change. Sentiment plays a part, but without the lending, or with higher rates, people can`t act on their buy impulse (if they still have one)

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

It stands to reason that if there are 20% price drops people`s mortgages won`t "stay the same", because the drop will be due to higher interest rates?

Interest rates are likely to increase but considering the amount of debt in mortgage is roughly the same and banks are stress testing people to around 5-6% there is no reason to believe anyone should be affect (Bar personal circumstances) until rates rise above that rate. I see no indications that rates will get anywhere near that rate any time soon.

I actually agree with you that Interest rates would need to be one of the major triggers to a house price crash but between the government debt and BoE I can't see 6+% interest rates any time soon.

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Wrong. House prices are driven by global credit conditions, change those and house prices change. Sentiment plays a part, but without the lending, or with higher rates, people can`t act on their buy impulse (if they still have one)

Thats only part of the picture, you also need motivated sellers, without this as we have seen people just stay put and prices don't really fall.

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

Thats only part of the picture, you also need motivated sellers, without this as we have seen people just stay put and prices don't really fall.

Fair point, but you only need one motivated seller in a street of similar houses to drop the price for the whole street.

Crashy_Time

buggy_boy wrote: »

Interest rates are likely to increase but considering the amount of debt in mortgage is roughly the same and banks are stress testing people to around 5-6% there is no reason to believe anyone should be affect (Bar personal circumstances) until rates rise above that rate. I see no indications that rates will get anywhere near that rate any time soon.

I actually agree with you that Interest rates would need to be one of the major triggers to a house price crash but between the government debt and BoE I can't see 6+% interest rates any time soon.

People can`t afford 5-6% at these current prices, that is why sales are dropping.


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/german-five-year-bond-yields-turn-positive-for-first-time-since-2015-1.3372286

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Fair point, but you only need one motivated seller in a street of similar houses to drop the price for the whole street.

One repossessed property sold cheap does not change the market, what you actually need is lots of motivated sellers and no buyers, thats my point though to get this you need high interest rates and high unemployment, the global market seems to be actually recovering so I dont see a crash coming any time soon.

buggy_boy

Crashy_Time wrote: »

People can`t afford 5-6% at these current prices, that is why sales are dropping.


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/markets/german-five-year-bond-yields-turn-positive-for-first-time-since-2015-1.3372286

Did you even read the your own link, yes rates have gone up but they are still at historic lows. Banks have been checking people can afford rates of 5-6% for years now and mortgages before then had rates before the crash of 5-6% so unless personal circumstances change they should also be able to afford... People have the ability to reduce their spending if they needed too.. I dont see rates getting to 5-6% for at least 5yrs most likely way beyond that.