MSE News: House prices climbed in October, says latest report

Really2

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I believe he does, which is why he wants lower prices, to possibly be able to purchase the other part.

I like the "poke one eye out to make glasses 50% cheaper" outlook he has.

I presume he has a point where NE or LTV would be a problem? So would a steep fall not mean he would not be able to buy it anyway?

AD9898_2

FWIW..

Unless you believe there will be an avalanche of forced sellers then no crash.

Unless you believe some institution can fund the massive shortfall in lending, no chance of significant rises either.

Conclusion ? We are likely to see more of what we've seen over the past months, smallish movements either way. If you've got a big wedge, safe job and with inflation likely to erode your savings, buy and get on with life.

setmefree2

AD9898 wrote: »

I try to be balanced, although my predictions for the future remain pretty scary (energy etc),

Now I'm with you there - oil could be about to really spoil the party - NYMEX crude at $86 :cool: and climbing...

Really2

AD9898 wrote: »

Unless you believe there will be an avalanche of forced sellers then no crash.

Unless you believe some institution can fund the massive shortfall in lending, no chance of significant rises either.

Conclusion ? We are likely to see more of what we've seen over the past months, smallish movements either way. If you've got a big wedge, safe job and with inflation likely to erode your savings, buy and get on with life.

So true AD, I remember saying in 2008 forced sellers would dictate the market price for 2009.

I was wrong, but also right. The lack of forced sellers has dictated the market price.
In reality in a recession we should have seen a lot more repossessions than we have.

It is hard to argue that monetary policy seems to have been well used in this recession, we all predicted a lot worse all round.
Even the most bullish on here (well term used on here) have proved to have been reasonably bearish in their views.

We are going to be paying for it for a long time, but had it been left to fail there is no doubt we would have been a far greater price.
House prices would have been irrelevent had some of the falls some predicted happened.

AD9898_2

Really2 wrote: »

So true AD, I remember saying in 2008 forced sellers would dictate the market price for 2009.
I was wrong, but also right. The lack of forced sellers has dictated the market price.
In reality in a recession we should have seen a lot more repossessions than we have.

It is hard to argue that monetary policy seems to have been well used in this recession, we all predicted a lot worse all round.
Even the most bullish on here (well term used on here) have proved to have been reasonably bearish in their views.
We are going to be paying for it for a long time, but had it been left to fail there is no doubt we would have been a far greater price.
House prices would have been irrelevent had some of the falls some predicted happened.

Yeh, I don't see much upsetting the house price apple cart. What I do see is long periods of nothing much either way...... Now fast forward 10-15 years when Peak Oil is reeking havoc then.................. lolz, I'll stop there and spare you all :-D

chucky

michaels wrote: »

Only thing I would add would be to bold the nominal bit - real terms prices are down year on year and that is likely to accelerate as strong increase months from the end of last year and the start of this year drop out of the 12 month period.

I guess the question is how much will nominal and real prices fall in the next 12 months - the current 3 month fall at an annual rate is about 6% nominal / 10% real which is probably fairly close to 'sharp correction' territory. So we are left with the question of whether given the demand drought resulting from tight finance and expectations of further price falls will drive the market significantly lower or whether the Hamish theory of supply contracting to meet demand at current nominal prices will be correct.

why can't there be nominal rises (as are happening) and real house price falls?

chucky

AD9898 wrote: »

FWIW..

Unless you believe there will be an avalanche of forced sellers then no crash.

Unless you believe some institution can fund the massive shortfall in lending, no chance of significant rises either.

Conclusion ? We are likely to see more of what we've seen over the past months, smallish movements either way. If you've got a big wedge, safe job and with inflation likely to erode your savings, buy and get on with life.

i've been saying this since 2008...

ruggedtoast

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I believe he does, which is why he wants lower prices, to possibly be able to purchase the other part.

Ah, right. Well everyone has a VI.

Heyman_2

Anyone seen sarkin, Doctor Gloom, Brit1234 and Henry P Chester?

They all posted on the first page of last month's thread, I'm a bit concerned that something terrible might have happened to them.

IveSeenTheLight

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Ah, right. Well everyone has a VI.

Totally agree, EVERYONE has a VI.