Debate House Prices
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MSE News: House prices climbed in October, says latest report
Comments
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Graham_Devon wrote: »That was an example I used to state I doubt prices would fall this month.
Go get it, quote it up, and you'll see exactly what was said, and exactly what you are twisting to the absolute extreme.
here it is and your right you did use it in a way to factor / cover why you thought prices would rise.
I remembered you saying it but must admit I don't have a 100% photographc memory, hence why I said "I thought" and had loads of question marks to show my uncertanty "??????????"Graham_Devon wrote: »I'm going more for the fact that if it dropped say 1.4%, that would be a 5% drop in just 2 months. Don't think we even saw that kind of figure in crash times.
Up to a 1% rise would bring it back into line with other measures, and would still be a drop of 2.6% over 2 months.
If it drops over 1% though, I'm having a field day!
That said, on what you did say.
Does that mean that its above other measures? (I didn't think so, but guess it depends which measure your using)
and
Your not having a field day:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
Only thing I would add would be to bold the nominal bit - real terms prices are down year on year and that is likely to accelerate as strong increase months from the end of last year and the start of this year drop out of the 12 month period.
I guess the question is how much will nominal and real prices fall in the next 12 months - the current 3 month fall at an annual rate is about 6% nominal / 10% real which is probably fairly close to 'sharp correction' territory. So we are left with the question of whether given the demand drought resulting from tight finance and expectations of further price falls will drive the market significantly lower or whether the Hamish theory of supply contracting to meet demand at current nominal prices will be correct.Some thoughts:
- Seasonal adjustment had no effect this month so actual price rise was 1.8% on the month
- Nominal house prices fell year-on-year......by 3 basis points or 0.03% according to my calculation.
- Halifax claim they rose 1.2% year-on-year. They get to this figure because of the smoothing they apply to their stats. There's nothing wrong with this IMO as house price indices can be pretty noisy.
- Halifax mix adjust so this compares apples with apples - they adjust the stats to account for different types of house selling
- Unless there are some price rises in the next couple of months, Halifax's house price index will go negative on their headline figure year-on-year.I think....0 -
that iz a gud poynt clunky yeye
Yes, the fun's been made about the other thread desperation bumping, but let's not lower ourselves to the same level.:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
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IveSeenTheLight wrote: »Surely we are not that desperate to nonsensically bump a thread.
Yes, the fun's been made about the other thread desperation bumping, but let's not lower ourselves to the same level.
Not desperate enough to create a fake user to nonsensically bump a thread you mean
I'm just taking the !!!! out of which ever moron created a fake account in the first place, and as a bonus I can guarantee that it will really wind them up, given they obviously assume that bumping a thread will make a difference.0 -
thrown, pram, toys - please feel free to arrange the words in whichever order you like...
it's always a sign of severe desperation when people make clear statements and then try to claim they never said them when they are proved wrong... never mind...
here's the exact quote from yesterday
do you think it still feels good?
Doesnt Graham actually part own a house?0 -
ruggedtoast wrote: »Doesnt Graham actually part own a house?
I believe he does, which is why he wants lower prices, to possibly be able to purchase the other part.:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
Prices down year on year, that's inline with my own predictions 12 months ago.
The SE and Scotland can increase 10% per year as far as I'm concerned, I'll never live there so it's irrelevant to me0
This discussion has been closed.
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